The Cavs can’t afford to keep or lose Dean Wade

The Cleveland Cavaliers have built one of the most expensive teams in the league, and one somehow devoid of depth at the most premium position.

The pursuit of talent over position has led to a team with too many overlapping skill sets at guard and center. That is coming back to bite them as they simultaneously can’t afford to be with or without the only rotation player who can naturally shift between small and power forward.

Dean Wade isn’t the ideal starting small forward for a championship-level team. He’s an exceptional point-of-attack defender who can legitimately guard each position on the court. Every team can use a player like that. It’s the offensive side that holds him back.

Wade is a respectable outside shooter for his size, but he hasn’t registered above the fifth percentile for offensive usage in the past five seasons. The hesitancy to pull the trigger when he has an opening, combined with his inability to provide much else as a passer, ball handler, or inside finisher, contributes to that number being so low. An offense can’t function at its capacity if one of its players is participating so little in the outcome of possessions.

Despite these warts, the market for Wade is robust. Every team is either looking for a star athletic wing or a way to slow down their opponent’s. Wade is the latter. And if you’re able to play him in a more ideal role, you’d probably get better results.

It’s been reported that Wade isn’t going to give the Cavs a hometown discount. His market could be upward to the entire non-tax midlevel exception of $15 million per year.

The Cavaliers can match that. They have Wade’s Bird rights, which means they can go over the salary cap to retain him. The concern comes with what that means for the rest of the cap sheet.

The second apron makes it very difficult to reshape your team. The Cavs found that out the hard way this past season as they were the only team above the second apron. James Harden opting out of his contract has allowed the Cavs to duck below that threshold by $42.1 million. But if they are going to stay below — or even get below the first apron — they’ll need more than just signing Harden to a more team-friendly deal.

Moving Dennis Schröder or Max Strus for smaller contracts or cap relief is a possibility that was already on the table. Trading either or both would become vital if you were to retain Wade near the $15 million per year mark. It’s also worth noting that these changes would be aimed at bringing back a group that fell in four games to the New York Knicks — not one that’s a proven championship contender you want to keep intact.

Despite that, if the Cavs lose Wade, there really isn’t a simple solution for replacing him.

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The Cavs don’t have enough wings to take up Wade’s minutes internally. Strus has proven that he can start at the three with this group, but he can’t do so and also provide backup minutes at power forward. Neither can Jaylon Tyson at 6’6″ if he takes another step forward in his development.

Cleveland’s core four doesn’t have the same exact skill sets, but from a team construction standpoint, they functionally occupy similar archetypes. Donovan Mitchell and Harden are both most effective with the ball in their hands while not providing much resistance as point of attack defenders. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both at their best as play finishers, not play creators. They’re also more traditional rim protectors that aren’t as useful when they’re forced to guard in space. Both sets require compromises elsewhere. This creates lineups where you have multiple players with the same skills and the same weaknesses.

Redundancy on its own isn’t a problem. Having multiple elite ball handlers and rim protectors is extremely useful over an 82-game season. However, in the playoffs, you need to be able to play in a variety of ways depending on the matchup. This is where the repeated strengths and weaknesses of the core are an issue.

The ideal role players for this kind of team would be players who have well-rounded games. Unfortunately for the Cavs, it’s difficult to find well-rounded role players for a variety of reasons. The main one being that if their games were that well-rounded, they’re usually not actually in the role-player tier.

So instead, the Cavs have opted for specialists to plug holes. There’s lineups and situations that someone like Sam Merrill is extremely useful in. And there’s situations and lineups where it doesn’t quite work. The same isn’t true for Wade.

With the team’s strengths and weaknesses, nearly every grouping benefits from Wade’s point of attack defense, rebounding, switchability, and occasional shooting. This is why the Cavs have consistently played better with Wade on the court.

Lineups with Wade playing last season were three points better than they were when he was off. That drastically increased in the playoffs. The Cavs were 10.6 points better with Wade on the floor compared to without him. That was second only to Harden (+12.7).

Wade has consistently paired well with the front court of Allen and Mobley. Lineups with all three have been in the 98th percentile or better in defensive rating in four of their five seasons together. This includes lineups with all three posting a 99.4 defensive rating (100th percentile) this past season.

It’s easy to see why when you watch these groups play. Wade can guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player. The two bigs can switch any pick-and-rolls without giving up significant mismatches with backline help behind them. And Wade does enough as a shooter and rebounder to round out those lineups. This is just one example of a grouping that Wade can elevate.

On one hand, it’s difficult to justify giving $15 million per year for a player with such a low usage offensively, and who can be a liability in the playoffs when he isn’t taking outside shots. At the same time, there’s no one on the roster, nor anyone that the Cavs could easily acquire, who would better provide the defensive versatility and rebounding that Wade does.

This is one of the many areas where the lack of roster balance hurts the Cavs. Every team under this CBA has weak points and role players that hold groups together. That’s fine. But ideally, those glue guys aren’t the only players at that particular position.

Wade’s importance is a byproduct of valuing skill over position. That philosophy can lead you to stealing Allen in a multi-team trade or picking up an All-Star guard like Darius Garland instead of taking Jarrett Culver because he played a more valuable position. But when taken to its furthest extreme, you end up with a roster that is only glued together by an undrafted free agent that isn’t good enough to elevate the group to the next level, but also too expensive to justify really paying if it handcuffs your ability to make other moves.

The Cavs have a difficult choice to make with the start of free agency later today. Either they pay Wade more than they can easily rationalize doing, considering their cap situation. Or, they lose him for nothing, and will need to spend valuable assets and likely create holes elsewhere in the roster trying to find a replacement.

Neither is a good option. But the Cavs need to choose one, and hope to reinforce the wing position at some point this summer, regardless of which direction they decide to go.

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