The Jays’ International Free Agent pipeline has been a bit down in recent years. Vladimir Guerrero jr. and Alejandro Kirk are homegrown stars who signed at 16, but they’re it on the roster right now. There isn’t a ton of immediate promise on the farm, either. Recent top dollar signings, including like Manuel Beltre, Luis Meza, and Enmanuel Bonilla have crashed out in the low minors. On our top 40, the highest rated homegrown IFA was Fernando Perez at #8, and he’s slammed into a wall at AA this season and is now on the non-injury development list trying to rebuild his arsenal. He’s joined by Victor Arias, another prospect struggling a bit in New Hampshire, Silvano Hechavarria, who signed at 20 out of Cuba and so effectively represents a different class of prospect, and Juan Caricote, this year’s big signing who’s just getting his feet wet in the Dominican Summer League.
Juan Sanchez, our #12 pre-season prospect, represents one of the few bright spots. He was actually the third largest bonus the Jays handed out last year, behind Cristopher Polanco (not looking great) and Seojun Moon (just 5 appearances at the complex so far, but early reports are intriguing). Sanchez got off to a hot start to his pro career, posting a .341/.439/.565 line that was the 11th best in the DSL, with most of the guys ahead of him being older players repeating the level.
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The Jays rewarded his precocious debut with a jump over the complex and straight to A ball to begin the 2026 season. Sanchez is one of just 11 qualified hitters 18 or younger in full season ball. The early returns weren’t promising. Through his first 20 games, Sanchez was hitting just .118, with a 30% strikeout rate and just two extra base hits. Since then, though, he’s found his footing, trimming his strikeout rate to 25% and posting 13 XBH, including a triple and three homers, for a .313/.367/.554 line.
The cornerstone of Sanchez’ game is power. He’s listed at 6’3” and 180lbs, and while he already looks substantial his shoulders are broad and he has plenty of room to pack on good weight. He’ll probably be huge as a full grown man. Baseball America notes in their scouting report that he hit a ball over 115mph last season. That would be a monster number for a 17 year old, and he hasn’t gotten close to that this season, but his hard hit rate is a respectable 37%, and 45% since things started to click for him this time last month. His swing also naturally produces his hardest contact in the 8-32 degree range of launch angles that accounts for almost all extra base hits and home runs. This is the profile of a potential 30 home run hitter if he can refine his hit tool enough to allow all that power to play in games.
Admittedly, there’s work to do on that front. Sanchez has been aggressive this year, swinging at right around 50% of the pitches he sees. He’s chased exactly a third of the time against a 66.1% in-zone swing rate. That’s not terrible plate discipline, but it’s not great either. He’s also got a fair bit of swing and miss in his game. His in-zone contact rate is 75.1%. That’s a huge drop from the 89% he posted in the DSL, but he’s trending in the right direction by raising it to 78.3% over the past month. That’ll be a key thing to watch going forward. League average zone contact is around 85%. It’s fine if Sanchez comes in a bit below that if it’s the result of a swing that allows him to use his power, but not many productive hitters land below 75%, and ideally he’d get into the 80s. Contact outside the zone is less important, but his 39% rate there is also low.
The good news is that I think experience and pitch selection are a bit part of the issue. He has great bat speed and doesn’t have trouble catching up to high heat, with a contact rate of 80% on fastballs 94 and above in the zone. The big issue seems to be on breaking balls, which he whiffs on in the zone and chases below it far too often. That’s hardly a surprise for a teenager who’s suddenly facing a steady diet of college drafted pitchers whose arsenals and approach are far beyond anything he’s seen before. Over time, he’ll hopefully learn to lay off and adjust to pro quality breakers, and indeed his improvement over the last month shows that he’s already taking steps in that direction.
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Sanchez has mostly played third base so far this season, moving off shortstop in deference to Jojo Parker. That’s probably his long term home anyway, as he’s already a fringy runner who’s almost certainly going to slow down as he bulks up. His actions are just OK, but he has a strong arm that can make all the throws for the position and I think he can stick on the dirt. He projects as a 5-6 hitting slugger whose big power production more than makes up for lower averages. There’s a lot of ground to cover between here and there, but his holding his own and showing he can adjust after big jumps in competition this season cements him as a major prospect and a bright spot in the international talent pipeline.
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