NEW ORLEANS — If you tried to bet every available prop, spread and total in Super Bowl LIX, you’d probably run out of time and money before BetMGM ran out of options.
While there are plenty of betting options for every game in just about every sport, there’s still something different about the Super Bowl menu. It seems endless. For the only time all year, betting on coin flips and the color of Gatorade seems like a good idea.
Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting props and other bets offered by BetMGM for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl:
The point spread: Chiefs still favored
There has been some slight movement when it comes to the point spread. The spread itself hasn’t moved. That has remained at Chiefs -1.5 since it opened, with a fairly even split among Chiefs and Eagles backers. But as of Thursday night, the odds had shifted on the Eagles’ side from -110 to -115 (bet $115 to win $100). That means there has been some recent action on the Eagles, and it could be a precursor to the spread moving to Eagles +1 over the weekend. There’s still plenty of money that will come in over the weekend, before kickoff, and that could lead to the point spread shifting.
The total: Bets on over but line moving toward under
As of midweek, 68% of bets and 60% of money were on the over for the Super Bowl total. The early line move reflected that. It opened at 48.5 and ticked up all the way to 49.5 last week. But the line has moved back down to 48.5. That probably means there were some influential players who bet the under, and oddsmakers adjusted accordingly. The under makes some sense in a game with two very good defenses, though casual players (of which there are many for the Super Bowl) usually prefer the over.
MVP odds: Patrick Mahomes an obvious favorite
A popular bet every year for Super Bowls is on MVP. There’s no surprise that the clear favorite in that market is Patrick Mahomes. He’s +105. It’s also not a big surprise that Saquon Barkley is next at +240 odds, though it is unusual. Quarterbacks are usually the favorite for each team. Does that make Jalen Hurts a decent value bet for MVP? He is +375, better odds than you’ll see for most quarterbacks whose team has even odds on the moneyline to win the game. If it’s Hurts and not Barkley who accounts for most of the Eagles’ touchdowns, and Philadelphia wins the game, Hurts has a very good shot at MVP.
First TD: Saquon Barkley a popular pick
Another popular market is first touchdown. If you think the Chiefs score first, there’s good value on any of their players. Kareem Hunt has the shortest odds of any Chiefs player to score the first touchdown of the game at +900. But it’s hard to figure out which Chiefs player might get in the end zone; they like to spread it around.
If you want a narrower tree, the Eagles have two obvious picks: Saquon Barkley at +400 and Jalen Hurts at +650. Barkley scored 15 touchdowns in the regular season and Hurts had 14. If you want longer odds, DeVonta Smith (eight regular-season touchdowns) is 17-to-1 and A.J. Brown (seven TDs) is 14-to-1. Also keep an eye on tight end Dallas Goedert at +1800. The Chiefs are a good matchup for him.
As for anytime touchdown, Barkley is a fairly stunning -200 to score. Barkley has had an amazing season but did fail to score a touchdown in nine of 19 Eagles games counting playoffs. The “yes” on Barkley to score is the most popular anytime touchdown bet at BetMGM.
Star props: Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley and more
Statistically, Mahomes didn’t have a big season. His props for the Super Bowl aren’t huge though: 252.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns (though the odds on the over are -175). One trend to watch is that the Chiefs are among the worst teams in the NFL at generating long pass plays, and the Eagles are the best in the NFL at preventing long pass plays. The line for Mahomes’ longest pass is 35.5 yards. The Chiefs had just four passes of more than 40 yards all regular season; just four teams had fewer.
It’s hard to take any unders on Barkley, given the roll he’s on. The total for his rushing total is 112.5, which is enticing. He has had at least 118 yards in five straight games. Another number that seems low is Barkley’s receiving total of 12.5. But Barkley, a good receiver, wasn’t used much in that role by the Eagles. He has had more than 10 yards just once in the Eagles’ last eight games. Perhaps in a close game the Eagles force the issue to Barkley in the passing game, especially if the Chiefs are successful slowing him down on the ground. And 12.5 isn’t too high of a bar to cross.
Some other notable props from star players: Jalen Hurts’ passing total of 213.5 (can the Chiefs force the Eagles into a game script in which they have to pass more?), Travis Kelce’s receiving total of 61.5 (he averaged 51.4 per game this season and had 19 yards in the AFC title game), Dallas Goedert’s receiving total of 49.5 (Goedert has been hot and the Chiefs gave up a lot of yards to tight ends this season).
Long shots: Which unsung hero will emerge?
In plenty of Super Bowls, we see a player come out of nowhere to make big plays. Call it the Chris Matthews Award. In Super Bowl XLIV, Matthews had 109 receiving yards and a touchdown for the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots. Matthews had never caught an NFL pass before that Super Bowl.
Who could it be this season? DeAndre Hopkins is obviously a big name, but he hasn’t done much with the Chiefs since a midseason trade. But he seems like the type of player the Chiefs could feature a little more in the Super Bowl. And he’s great in the red zone. Hopkins’ over/under for yards is a scant 11.5. Hopkins to score anytime is +500 and him scoring the first touchdown is 28-to-1. Not bad odds for a three-time All-Pro.
It’s harder to find a player down the Eagles’ list that might hit big. Perhaps Dallas Goedert, who has been hot lately, is a decent play at +333 for anytime touchdown. Digging deeper, Jahan Dotson is playing plenty of snaps and is 13-to-1 to score anytime, and 66-to-1 to score first. Dotson also has a playoff touchdown, against Green Bay in the wild-card round.
The weird props: Yellow Gatorade becomes big favorite
You’d think the coin toss would be a 50/50 pick for bettors, but that would be wrong. Of the bets on the pregame coin toss, 53% of the bets are on heads. Tails has come up 30 times and heads 28 times in the first 58 Super Bowl coin tosses. Maybe bettors think heads is due.
And we didn’t forget the Gatorade. Bets on what color the Gatorade will be when it’s dumped on the winning coach has become popular. There has been a huge push for yellow/lime/green over the past two weeks, and that has gone from +300 odds to a big favorite:
Yellow/green/lime -165
Purple +300
Orange +500
Red/pink +700
Blue +800
Clear/water +1200
No Gatorade bath +2500
Yellow/green/lime was what was dumped on Nick Sirianni after the Eagles won the NFC championship. Purple has cashed for the Chiefs in each of the last two Super Bowls.
And yes, BetMGM has odds on Travis Kelce proposing to Taylor Swift. The “yes” is +800 odds.
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