In need of some pitching depth at the trade deadline, the Mets acquired right-hander Paul Blackburn from the Athletics in exchange for pitching prospect Kade Morris — a third-round pick in the 2023 draft. The former All-Star ended up making five starts for the Mets, with three of them being quality starts. He was roughed up a bit in his other two starts, resulting in a 5.18 ERA as a Met, and his season ended on a bit of a bizarre note.
After initially landing on the IL with a right hand contusion in late August, Blackburn was about to make his return to the majors when a back issue popped up. Then, after receiving roughly 10 PRP injections, Blackburn developed a spinal fluid leak that caused him to be shut down for the remainder of the season.
Blackburn had a spinal procedure on Oct. 11, with a typical return to play being four-to-five months.
Blackburn is arbitration eligible, and after making $3.45 million last season, he’s due for a slight raise. So should the Mets bring him back? Let’s dig in…
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET BLACKBURN LEAVE
The Mets’ starting rotation has a bunch of question marks right now. Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents, and while the Mets have extended qualifying offers to Severino and Manaea, the team currently has at least three open spots in the rotation. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are currently the only sure things, though Tylor Megill could also play a role.
David Stearns told reporters at the GM Meetings that the Mets will be looking to add multiple starting pitchers, and it’s probably fair to think that at least one of the trio of Manaea, Severino, and Quintana will return. So where does Blackburn fit in?
It’s hard to envision the Mets going into spring training with Blackburn as their No. 5 starter, given the club’s resources and the chance to add quality pitching. And if you’re thinking that perhaps Blackburn could be a long-man out of the bullpen, consider that he has just four career relief appearances, and just one since the 2019 season.
The other option would be keeping Blackburn in Triple-A, but if he and the Mets settle on a deal around $5-to-6 million, that’s a bit of a pricey option to keep stashed away in Syracuse. There’s a chance the Mets could non-tender Blackburn and bring him back on a cheaper deal, but that also lets him test the open market.
The other question is Blackburn’s health. The Mets said at the end of the season that they didn’t think Blackburn’s back issue was a long-term problem, but they also didn’t expect it to end his season when it initially popped up. Mets fans know as well as anyone that backs can be tricky, so the Mets may need to tread carefully.
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO BRING BLACKBURN BACK
The big question is whether the Mets will use a five- or six-man rotation in 2025. Typically, when Senga is healthy, the Mets have given him an extra day of rest to keep him more in line with what his throwing schedule was in Japan.
If the Mets go with a six-man rotation, Blackburn could be an ideal fit. Because of off days built into the calendar, the Mets may not need Blackburn every time through the rotation, but having him ready as a sixth starter could go a long way.
And again, the Mets need starters. In the event that Severino, Manaea, and Quintana all land elsewhere – though it seems unlikely — the Mets need starters, so why not keep one who is still under team control and can be brought back for a modest price via arbitration.
Blackburn’s career numbers may not jump off the page (4.85 career ERA, 1.405 WHIP), but he’s pitched 86 games in the big leagues and could benefit from a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Citi Field.
As previously mentioned, Blackburn doesn’t have much experience as a reliever, but neither did Trevor Williams when the Mets used him in a hybrid starter-long man role in 2022 — a role he excelled in, pitching to a 3.21 ERA with 30 total appearances and nine starts. Blackburn could be the perfect fit if the 2025 Mets look to keep a player like that on the active roster.
VERDICT
There are a lot of “ifs” involved when talking about the Mets’ 2025 pitching staff. Because of that, it makes the most sense for the Mets to hold on to a player who is already under team control and could be a decent option as either a fifth starter or a long man/potential sixth starter.
Blackburn will likely get a raise to somewhere in the $5-6 million range, and that’s a price that Steve Cohen and the Mets should have no issue paying.
The smart play is to bring Blackburn back for 2025 and see where he’s needed at a later time.
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