On paper, Liverpool’s game against Southampton on Sunday is the easiest game they’ve had all season so far.
The last time top played bottom in the Premier League came in April 2023, when Southampton themselves cost Arsenal the league title with a 3-3 draw. That game came at a pivotal part of the season, whilst Liverpool currently have the grace to be facing a bottom-placed team in an in-between stage of the season just off an international break.
Southampton have only recorded a league-worst seven goals so far this season whilst conceding a league-fourth 21. Liverpool’s form is well established – they top the table, having netted 21 times whilst only conceding a league-best six goals.
It’s the league’s best defence versus the league’s worst attack. It’s the best team in the world right now versus a newly-promoted side that have one win and a draw in 11 games. Foregone conclusion, right?
But if football was that simple it wouldn’t be the game we all know and love.
In fact, when you dig deeper, it appears that both sides might be riding on either side of a lucky wave.
Liverpool’s defensive performances have spoken for themselves this season. Virgil van Dijk remains the best centre-back in the world, whilst pundits are saying Ibrahima Konate might be the best-performing defender in the Premier League, and Trent Alexander-Arnold is putting up defensive numbers we’ve never seen from him before.
Yet, according to FBRef, they have conceded those six goals from 9.3 expected goals allowed (xGA). This suggests that the side have gotten a tad lucky in the number of goals they’ve conceded this season, but is also in line with both Alisson and Caoimhin Kelleher having above-average shot-stopping prowess.
Not conceding from 1.4 and 1.2 xGA against Manchester United and Aston Villa, respectively, stand out.
Are Southampton unlucky?
Southampton, meanwhile, have scored their seven goals from 11.9 expected goals (xG) this season. In the complete converse to Liverpool, it suggests that they have been unlucky in front of goal or have a team of poor finishers.
Not scoring from 1.8 xG against Newcastle and only scoring once from 2.4 xG against Ipswich are the most clear examples of this.
Poor finishes from Ben Brereton Diaz and Adam Armstrong with only the keeper to beat against Newcastle, and Cameron Archer being denied from point-blank range multiple times against Ipswich will do that.
Whilst their overall xG isn’t tremendously high, it points to a team who are due for a few things to fall their way. Alternatively, Liverpool may have a few annoying bits of variance to go against them at some point in the future.
As a result, this weekend’s game is a recipe for disaster.
The game is a serious opportunity for the two circumstances to coincide in a significant way. Southampton’s ability to create chances and the suggestion their finishing could get better could coincide with a drop in performance form Liverpool’s defence, least of all with it possibly being Alisson’s first game back in six weeks.
The bottom-placed side has only beaten top four times in Premier League history – the last being 13 years ago.
Please, football Gods, let’s avoid a fifth.
Read the full article here
