Six Pack of college football picks, predictions: Miami vs. Florida State, Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in spotlight

The Six Pack has been treading water the last few weeks, which means that, even though we’ve picked more winners than losers, the vig has caught up to us. We’re now on the wrong side of the ledger after another 3-3 week, even if only barely.

We’re also getting destroyed in the Lock of the Week. It’s certainly still a lock, but not in the direction intended, as we’re 1-4 after losing on USC -6.5 last week. Yet we’re 15-10 everywhere else. It doesn’t make much sense, but it’s college football, it’s not really supposed to.

The good news is now that the calendar has flipped to October and we’ve seen everybody play four or five games, we’ve got a better understanding of who’s who in the zoo. Or at least, that’s what I’m telling myself.

Games of the Week

No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State: I’ve great news for those of you who are upset with my picks and also live in the Tallahassee area. I will be in Tallahassee on Friday afternoon with the rest of the Cover 3 Podcast, doing a live show ahead of this game. So if you’re in town, you can come on by and yell at me about my picks, and I’ll have to sit there and take it. It’s free admission, so stroll over, yell at me and enjoy the show! If you’re not in town, stick to yelling at me on social media for now.

While this is a huge game in the ACC, admittedly, it lost a bit of juice last week when Florida State lost at Virginia in double overtime. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Seminoles respond because this team was flying high after its Week 1 upset of Alabama. To follow that up by losing here to drop to 3-2 and 0-2 in ACC play would be a serious gut punch. One that’s well within the realm of possibility, because Miami has been one of the better teams in the country this season.

Honestly, I’m not sure who will win this game. The way I see things, you should either take Miami to cover the spread or Florida State to win outright. My favorite play is on the total. Most people are expecting a shootout here, but I’m not nearly as convinced. While Florida State’s offense has been very explosive, it gets stuck in the mud sometimes, too. While I believe the ‘Noles can hit some big plays against Miami, I’m not as confident they’ll do it repeatedly.

The reason is that Miami should have a serious edge along the lines of scrimmage, and that will go a long way to helping the ‘Canes dictate the tempo. Mario Cristobal won’t want his defense on the field for 80+ snaps as Florida State would hope for. Miami is likely to control the clock and sustain possession, and with their offensive line, they should have enough success with the gameplan to make it work. As for the other side, we saw late last week that Virginia was able to get its edge defenders up the field and keep Tommy Castellanos in the pocket and force him to try to win from there. It’s not his strong suit. Miami’s defense can do that too, and they’re better-equipped in the secondary to keep State’s receivers in check. So I don’t expect either offense to put a bunch of points on the board here unless there are multiple turnovers to supply short fields, or touchdowns on defense and special teams. The Pick: Under 53.5 (-105) at FanDuel

No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama: It certainly feels like we’ve been here before, doesn’t it? Because we have. Last year, Alabama beat Georgia in a thriller that seemed to tell the world the program would be fine post-Nick Saban. The next week, they went to Nashville and were beaten by little ol’ Vanderbilt 40-35. Last week, Alabama beat Georgia, and now it’s facing Vanderbilt again.

It’s not likely to be caught by surprise this time around. If you haven’t been paying attention, this year’s Vanderbilt squad is better than last year’s, and the Commodores feature one of the best offenses in the country to this point. Given Alabama’s struggles the last two years dealing with offenses that utilize mobile quarterbacks, Vandy might put up plenty of points here again.

Whatever happens, I don’t have enough confidence in the spread or game total to make a play on either. The one aspect of this matchup that’s changed dramatically from last year is Alabama’s QB situation. Ty Simpson is a better passing quarterback than Jalen Milroe was, which means Alabama’s offense is better equipped to take advantage of Vanderbilt’s defense. The Commodores haven’t faced a dangerous pass attack yet this year, nor have they had to deal with the talent Alabama has at the receiver position. I don’t know how well the Commodores will be able to cover them. So I’m attacking Alabama’s team total. Alabama could win in a blowout, or it could lose the same way it did last season, unable to get stops. Either way, I expect the Tide to score. The Pick: Alabama Team Total Over 33.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

Air Force at Navy: Long-time readers know the drill. It’s a Service Academy Under. We had a warm-up to this last week in Navy’s game against Rice. Rice isn’t a service academy, but it runs an option offense. We took the under. We’re taking it here, too.

Unders in matchups between service academies are 47-12-1 since the 2005 season. The reason is simple: they run the ball almost exclusively. The clock never stops. Most of their touchdown possessions require seven plays or more, and sometimes take up half a quarter to finish. That means there are fewer overall possessions in the game, and the fewer possessions there are, the fewer opportunities there are to put points on the board.

What’s wild is that in recent years we’ve seen the totals for these games plummet. It wasn’t that long ago that seeing a total like this one wasn’t totally out of line, even if the upper 40s were the most common. However, since the Army-Navy game ended the 2022 season, the average closing total of the seven games since has been 34.6 points. The highest in that time was 39.5. Now we’ve jumped back up to 51.5! It’s because Air Force’s defense stinks, but Air Force hasn’t been playing option teams. They face this offense every day in practice! They’re better prepared to stop Navy than they are anybody else they’ve played. The Pick: Under 51.5 (-105) at FanDuel

Have Some Pride Play of the Week

Louisiana-Monroe at Northwestern: I saw this line when it opened, and my draw dropped like you’d see in an old cartoon. Listen, I understand Northwestern isn’t a great football team right now. I know it has problems. But a Big Ten team as barely a double-digit favorite at home against ULM? The Warhawks haven’t had a winning season since 2012! They’re 18-44 since 2020, and that includes a record of 9-31 in Sun Belt play!

The Wildcats lost to Tulane and Oregon, but both of those teams might make the College Football Playoff this season. ULM lost to Alabama 73-0! Northwestern is not Alabama (breaking news), but come on! If I were Northwestern’s coaching staff, I would have this point spread plastered all over the locker room. There are signs on the practice field with it. I want my players to know that this is what the world thinks of them, and I want them angry. Because if Northwestern can’t cover this spread against ULM…let’s have some pride this week, ‘Cats. The Pick: Northwestern -11.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Resume Booster of the Week

Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame: With USC losing on the road to Illinois last week, there’s a chance Notre Dame won’t play another ranked team this season. Given that the Irish have already lost twice, they can’t afford to lose another game if they want to return to the playoff, and they have to take every chance they can to run up the damn score.

Marcus Freeman knows this. We saw some of this attitude in action last week against Arkansas when the Irish were running fake punts in the third quarter while leading by 30 points. I don’t think Boise State’s good enough to return to the playoffs this year, but they were there last year. Putting a hurting on this Broncos squad will have value. So if the Irish have the chance to make a point here, they will. The Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 (-105) at FanDuel

Upset of the Week

Duke at California: I wrote a column this week about the effects of travel on teams in this new era of coast-to-coast conferences. The column was focused on the Big Ten, but it applies to the ACC as well. It’s not easy to fly across the country for a game and play your best unless you’re an elite team.

Cal traveled to Boston College last week and struggled, even though it managed to avoid the loss. This week it’s Duke’s turn to board a flight. Last week, the Blue Devils traveled north to face Syracuse, and now they’re on the road again, but they’re flying all the way to Berkeley. I know we all seem to think Duke is back to being good after losing to Illinois and Tulane, but let’s add some context. The NC State team the Blue Devils beat lost to a Virginia Tech team that’s already fired its coach in its very next game. The Syracuse team Duke housed last week lost its starting QB the week before in a huge upset win over Clemson.

So is Duke back, or did it beat a bad NC State and a Syracuse team without its starting QB? Do you really want to trust the Blue Devils as road favorites in this spot when we’ve seen so many teams struggle in the same position? I don’t. The Pick: Cal (+124) at DraftKings

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