A wild four-way SEC tiebreaker scenario could send LSU and Texas A&M to the SEC Championship Game, leaving Georgia and Texas out — despite all four teams potentially finishing with just one conference loss. In this chaotic setup, the Aggies’ only loss would come at the hands of the Longhorns, and every remaining SEC game would need to go as expected, with favored teams winning out.
While the odds of this situation unfolding are slim, it’s sparked intriguing conversation, especially given that Georgia and Texas could both rank ahead of LSU and Texas A&M in the projected playoff rankings heading into championship weekend. A request for tiebreaker clarification was made to the SEC, but a spokesperson indicated the conference is unlikely to comment on hypothetical scenarios.
If this chaos does play out, the SEC would be in prime position to secure at least three playoff spots, and potentially four. Georgia and Texas, as 11-win teams, would be highly ranked, while the SEC Championship Game loser would likely finish 10-3 with a strong resume. Though a multi-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff, that could change in the first year of expansion.
According to the SEC’s tiebreaker rules announced in August, here’s how the scenario would unfold:
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Head-to-head matchups: Georgia beat Texas, Texas A&M beat LSU, and Texas would have a win over Texas A&M. However, key matchups like LSU vs. Texas and Georgia vs. LSU do not exist this season, and Georgia doesn’t face Texas A&M.
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Record vs. common opponents: Florida is the only shared opponent between these teams, and each would notch a win against the Gators.
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Record against the highest-placed common opponent: Once again, Florida is the only common opponent, so this tiebreaker remains a wash.
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Cumulative conference winning percentage of opponents: This is where the tiebreaker falls. Texas A&M and LSU would advance to the SEC Championship due to their conference opponents’ combined winning percentage outpacing that of Texas and Georgia, highlighting the Longhorns’ relatively easier first SEC schedule.
This tiebreaker scenario was first flagged by a Reddit user and further detailed by a unique SEC Championship calculator developed by Mred.
However, this scenario falls apart if Texas A&M slips against South Carolina or Florida pulls an upset over Georgia this weekend. With plenty of football left, the path to Atlanta remains unpredictable.
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