Four weeks into the MLB season, it’s still too early to know exactly what to make of hot starts and slumps. At the same time, we’ve gotten enough of a taste of this regular season to take the temperature of some early contenders around the league.
Let’s run through five teams off to strong starts in 2025 and debate whether they’re worth believing in for the long haul.
Chicago Cubs (16-10, 1st in NL Central)
Mintz: Do I believe? I think so? I definitely want to. I’m just not sure their 21-win-by-2 style of baseball is sustainable. Right now, the Cubs are scoring and surrendering runs by the truckload. Their bullpen ERA is 5.34, fourth-worst in MLB. But because the lineup absolutely rakes — their .805 team OPS paces the league — Chicago has crafted a 2.5-game lead atop the NL Central. It’s a hilarious, exhausting way to live, but boy, oh boy, it makes for exhilarating television. The combo of a Swiss cheese bullpen and a skull-bashing lineup means that no lead is safe — in either direction.
Advertisement
Kyle Tucker is the best Cubs hitter since peak Kris Bryant. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a burgeoning superstar. Michael Busch is playing like a top-five first baseman. Seiya Suzuki is elevating the ball with authority. And while the bullpen has been a disaster-class, Chicago’s starting rotation carries the game’s seventh-best ERA. Losing frontline southpaw Justin Steele for the whole season is a gut-punch, but I think there’s just enough pitching here that the Cubs can be a Good Team™.
Shusterman: It has been a wild ride for Cubs, with the consistent excitement of a tremendous offense counterbalanced by the shakiness of a bullpen with which no lead is safe. Chicago has played baseball’s toughest schedule so far, yet here they are atop the NL Central, with the best run differential in MLB to boot.
While the Cubs would surely prefer to lessen the late-inning drama, they’ve got enough firepower in the lineup to remain competitive in virtually any game, and there’s enough arm talent in-house for manager Craig Counsell to deploy in a way that amounts to a competent pitching staff. This is also still a well-stocked farm system that could afford Jed Hoyer the pieces to swing a blockbuster deal come July.
Advertisement
I picked the Cubs to win the division this year, and while it hasn’t always been pretty, I’m feeling even better about that prediction after four weeks of play.
Dorsey: I fully believe in the Chicago Cubs, and it’s about time. The Cubs haven’t been relevant, in terms of playing meaningful baseball, in years, but they finally have a team that looks like it can not just win the division but do so handily.
The Cubs’ offense is the best in the game right now, leading the sport in nearly every major offensive category. Headlining all of that, right fielder Kyle Tucker has been every part the superstar they hoped he would be. Meanwhile, the Cubs have also gotten significant production from Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who looks like a breakout star in his sophomore season.
The Cubs are going to be a force this entire season, and for a fan base that has been watching bad baseball the past few seasons, good times have finally returned to Wrigley Field.
San Francisco Giants (16-9, 2nd in NL West)
Mintz: I think this is an interesting .500 ballclub off to a hot start, which, given all the recent average and boring Giants teams, has to be seen as improvement. Does that count as belief?
Advertisement
The uptick in watchability is, in large part, thanks to South Korean sensation Jung Hoo Lee, a player I very much believe in. Center-field offense is sneaky down across the league; center fielders as a group haven’t posted a league-average batting line since 2017. But Lee looks like a real difference-maker on both sides of the ball. More importantly, he’s someone Giants fans can emotionally invest in.
Beyond Lee, there are things to like, but there’s very little to love, with Matt Chapman and Logan Webb the exceptions. The rotation behind workhorse Webb looks excessively fine, unoffensive but underwhelming. Same with the lineup behind Lee and Chapman. Willy Adames has faceplanted out of the gate in Year 1 as a Giant, and LaMonte Wade’s production has gone into free fall. Both should get better, but it’s also fair to expect hot-starting players such as Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski to go the other way. To summarize: There are worse things to be than the 2025 San Francisco Giants, but there are better things, too.
Shusterman: That San Francisco has gotten extremely little thus far from its two major offseason additions (Willy Adames and Justin Verlander) can be viewed positively or negatively; one could marvel at what the Giants have achieved without them playing well or express concern about how impactful those two will ultimately be. San Francisco’s bullpen has thus far been elite (Randy Rodríguez!) and in a fairly convincing manner, but the rotation has underwhelmed considerably.
Advertisement
While you can count me among Jung Hoo Lee’s biggest fans, I’m skeptical of the bulk of this position-player group beyond Matt Chapman. Also, I’m concerned that the Giants’ farm system isn’t formidable enough to backfill injuries or provide the pieces for a meaningful trade deadline addition. On the whole, I think these Giants are better than the mediocre squads they’ve run out in recent years — and they’re markedly more watchable — but I’m not sure that’s enough for them to stay competitive in their ultra-loaded division. They could remain in the wild-card race into September, but I’m not sold on a return to the postseason.
Dorsey: The Giants are a very interesting team. They don’t have the top-level talent of the other squads in their division, but they have played fairly well through the first month of the season. Still, the reality for San Francisco is that even without its competitors playing their best baseball, the Padres and Dodgers have better records after one month. Essentially, these Giants will be competing for a wild-card spot if they hope to get to the postseason.
Jung Hoo Lee has been a star and appears to be living up to the hype he brought with him when he signed out of South Korea. But the Giants will need much more out of $182 million shortstop Willy Adames if they want to make a push for October.
Can Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays keep up in the AL East?
(Mallory Bielecki/Yahoo Sports)
Toronto Blue Jays (12-13, 3rd in AL East)
Mintz: Let’s start with the good. Extending Vlad Guerrero Jr. was more important than any singular season. Keeping that type of generational bat around until the sun shrivels is cause for celebration. Toronto’s bullpen is also much improved, thanks in large part to the dominance of Jeff Hoffman, currently the best reliever on Earth. Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, a pair of starters in their mid-30s, are delightfully raging against time. And speaking of old dudes turning back the clock, George Springer has been a top-10 hitter so far.
Advertisement
But generally, I’m out on the 2025 Jays.
Their lineup looks dangerously shallow behind Guerrero, Bichette and Springer. That would remain the case even if a scuffling Anthony Santander gets hot. There’s just not enough impact from hitters five through nine.
The other dynamic that has me spooked is the top-heavy rotation. With Max Scherzer hitting the IL after tossing just three innings, the Jays don’t have a fifth starter, with all due respect to Easton Lucas. Add the continued struggles of José Berríos, whose days as a difference-maker seem long gone, and Toronto is operating with three reliable arms.
Advertisement
An underwhelming farm system isn’t providing any immediate reinforcements, either. An injury or a run of underperformance from any of the stars (on either side of the ball) would be cataclysmic. Even in a surprisingly soft AL East, I’m selling on the Jays.
Shusterman: Last year’s disastrous campaign revealed two glaring weaknesses for the Blue Jays that needed to be addressed if they wanted to return to contention in 2025: a severe lack of power and a brutally bad bullpen. In signing Anthony Santander and Jeff Hoffman in free agency, Toronto appeared to address both shortcomings, but early returns have been split: Hoffman has almost single-handedly transformed the Blue Jays’ relief corp into a legitimate strength, while Santander has flopped badly thus far, leaving Toronto still in dire need of more dingers.
The much-improved bullpen has raised the floor for this Blue Jays team, but questions remain in the rotation from both durability (Scherzer) and performance (Berríos) standpoints. The pitching staff is still in something of a precarious position, especially with minimal impact depth looming in the upper minors. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have both been crushing the ball — but not in the air often enough to result in sufficient slugging, putting more pressure on Santander to heat up soon. I want to believe this Jays team can hang around in the wild-card race, but they have a lot to prove.
Advertisement
Dorsey: As an AL East contender in 2025, no, I don’t believe in these Blue Jays. They have some nice pieces, and keeping Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped extend their window of contention while reassuring their fan base that the face of the franchise will be in Toronto for a long time.
But there are much more talented teams in the AL East. The Blue Jays strike me as being a year or two away from getting back to the top of the division.
Detroit Tigers (15-10, 1st in AL Central)
Mintz: I’m all-in.
Last year, the Tigers stampeded into the ALDS, even though they had only one real starting pitcher. Tarik Skubal and bullpen chaos, the saying went. Now, it appears they might have five legitimate rotation pieces. Good starting pitching means you’re never out of a ballgame, allowing you to fluke and stumble your way into wins. That’s kinda what happened for the Tigers in 2024, but this year the offense seems definitively better.
Advertisement
It’s not a top-tier unit by any means, but the breakout of former No. 1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson is a meaningful development. After looking bust-adjacent for all of 2024, the slugging first baseman arrived to camp with reworked, drastically cleaner swing mechanics. I’m buying the hot start.
Beyond Tork, the Tigers have done enough, thanks to nice starts from Gleyber Torres and Zach McKinstry. Kerry Carpenter remains a terror against right-handed pitching. This team could desperately use one more imposing offensive piece — impending free agent Cedric Mullins of the scuffling Baltimore Orioles seems like a perfect fit — but worse lineups have won divisions before.
More than anything else, the Tigers seem to be a team that Knows What It’s Doing. Skipper AJ Hinch is respected and experienced. The pitching development apparatus churns out exciting relief arms like a Model T factory. The farm system is stacked with players who can contribute this season or be used in trades for big-league talent. It would not shock me if Detroit finishes with the best record in the American League.
Advertisement
Shusterman: If there’s one thing we learned during Detroit’s sensational second-half run in 2024, it’s that the Tigers know how to get outs no matter how exactly their pitchers are deployed. That organizational calling card has continued to shine in 2025, with Detroit’s 2.94 team ERA ranking third in MLB.
Spencer Torkelson’s breakout has brought some much-needed thump to this Tigers lineup, but the offense still feels fairly thin relative to some of the other contenders in the American League. That said, I’m banking on Detroit’s run prevention to remain elite for the long haul, and that should keep this team firmly in the running to compete for its first AL Central title since 2014 — and perhaps an even deeper postseason push.
Dorsey: The Tigers are the real deal. With a magical second half last season, they proved to all of baseball that they had something going that could be not only replicated but also improved upon in 2025.
More specifically, what makes Detroit a real contender for the AL Central this season isn’t just that they have the best starter in baseball in Tarik Skubal. It’s also the fact that former No. 1 picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson are finally showing the promise that Motown was banking on when they were drafted.
Advertisement
Last but not least, the Tigers also have an ownership group that spends when they have a good team, something that isn’t always the case in baseball.
Texas Rangers (14-10, 1st in AL West)
Mintz: Can someone explain to me why this offense stinks? Only the Rockies, Royals and White Sox have scored fewer runs than Texas’ $100 million lineup. It’s the second year running that this star-studded batting order has been a sludge of disappointment. Wyatt Langford is playing like an MVP candidate, and Josh Smith is one of the sport’s more underrated players, but beyond that, it’s a cavalcade of yikes. The unfortunately brittle Corey Seager hitting the IL due to a hamstring issue won’t help matters.
Advertisement
Texas’ starting pitching has been impressive, and even though Tyler Mahle will not have a 0.68 ERA all season, this rotation seems worth believing in. A revamped bullpen has been inconsistent but not disastrous. There’s still so much talent on this roster that I find it hard to jump ship. But as someone who picked the Rangers to win the American League, I’m a bit worried about whether the bats will ever wake up.
Shusterman: It concerns me that for the second straight year, the Rangers’ offense is sorely underperforming compared to what the personnel involved suggests it’s capable of — in some cases, such as Joc Pederson, drastically so. The struggles to score have thus far been overcome by some standout showings on the mound from Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle and a revamped bullpen, even amid an underwhelming start for Jacob deGrom.
However, Corey Seager’s recent hamstring issue served as a reminder that this team has a ton of durability questions on both sides of the ball, outside of noted ironman Marcus Semien. Even if some of the struggling bats start to find their footing, it’s difficult to be confident that all facets of this team will be simultaneously functional long enough for Texas to find its groove. There’s still substantial upside here — Wyatt Langford is the real deal, and maybe this rotation can remain among the AL’s best — but I’m hesitant to go all-in on Texas at this stage.
Advertisement
Dorsey: The Rangers’ strength this season was supposed to be their offense. But as the first month of the season closes, that has been their biggest weakness. And it’s not for lack of talent. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis García, Jake Burger, Josh Jung and Joc Pederson haven’t been able to get anything going. Wyatt Langford has looked like the player the Rangers thought he would be, but it’ll take more than him if they hope to do anything in the AL West.
The saving grace for the Rangers is that their division isn’t as strong as it has been in years past, and April is always a feeling-out period. Texas has postseason and championship pedigree, and if there’s any team that can turn it around in May, I’ll bet on the squad with as many World Series champions as the Rangers have on their roster.
Read the full article here
