Only one team will enter November unbeaten in the SEC, and the usual suspects are not on top.
No. 8 LSU and No. 14 Texas A&M face off Saturday in College Station as the lone SEC programs with unblemished conference records. Their trajectories to this showdown have not necessarily been alike, though their paths have mirrored each other: six straight wins following nail biters against nationally ranked opponents in their season openers. Clemson is the only other team in the country to win six straight since opening the year with a loss.
LSU believes it belongs in the national conversation as a contender. It quietly pieced together its first, full performance this season in a 34-10 win at Arkansas. Texas A&M has already drilled one preseason contender, Missouri, at Kyle Field. The stage is set for a potential thriller on the Saturday before Halloween.
Elsewhere across the SEC, it’s a buffet of big matchups for college football betting. Five ranked-against-ranked matchups are on the schedule in the country, and three are in the SEC: No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt; No. 21 Mizzou at No. 8 Alabama; and the aforementioned showdown at Kyle Field.
Just a SECond
A few notes from the CBS Sports Research team to digest before getting to this week’s picks:
- The nation’s top two defenses — and three of the top four – reside in the SEC: Texas (9.7 points per game), Ole Miss (10.6) and Tennessee (11.6).
- LSU and Texas A&M will meet as top-15 teams for the first time since 1987.
- Alabama has more than one loss before November for the first time since 2007. The Tide’s 16-season streak tied for the longest by an FBS team in the AP poll era (since 1936).
- Vanderbilt is 4-0 all-time against Texas at home, but the two haven’t played in Nashville since 1925. Saturday’s matchup is the first meeting between the schools since 1928.
- If Vanderbilt upsets Texas, the Commodores will be the first FBS team to record multiple home wins against top-five opponents since 2017 (Auburn).
- Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is the fastest player in SEC history to reach 17 rushing touchdowns in a season.
- The SEC is the only power conference without an undefeated team.
- Oklahoma allowed a school record nine sacks in its 35-9 loss to South Carolina.
- Since 2000, LSU is 5-1 against Texas A&M when the Aggies are ranked in the AP poll.
Picks
Straight up: 61-14 | Against the spread: 38-30-2
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Oklahoma at No. 18 Ole Miss
Things aren’t great at Ole Miss, but things are downright bad — historically bad — at Oklahoma. The Sooners are in danger of losing four of their last eight games for the first time since the John Blake era (1998) following its second-largest home loss to an unranked team since 1936 (35-9 to South Carolina). Jackson Arnold will start at quarterback for Oklahoma, and you should expect an improved performance on offense, but the Rebels have regrouped and still have one of the SEC’s upper-tier defensive units. Much like Tennessee did earlier this season, expect Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to hit a couple of big passes downfield to open up the running game, which will be more than enough to cover the spread against an offense that shouldn’t score more than 17 on the road. Pick: Ole Miss -20
Mississippi State hasn’t beaten an FBS team and is hobbling through one of the roughest patches in school history, but progress has been made in the last three weeks, particularly with quarterback Michael Van Buren. The freshman has thrown six touchdown passes against two interceptions in the last two weeks, a pair of 10-point losses against nationally-ranked Georgia and Texas A&M. For all the stats Arkansas puts up on offense, it doesn’t score points in bunches and that’s a bad combo against a Bulldogs team that is able to score in the 30s and is, more importantly, hungry for a breakthrough moment under first-year coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs pull off the upset in Starkville. Pick: Mississippi State +6.5
No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama
Missouri has teetered on the edge of the top 25 with its performances all season. The Tigers had to rally to beat Vanderbilt and Auburn at home, and they were exposed in a blowout at Texas A&M. If anything, a 13.5-point spread is low for Alabama. If the Tide have a pulse, they’re red with anger after the loss to Tennessee, and returning home against Mizzou is the perfect “ranked” team to unleash their frustration. You also have to wonder just how healthy quarterback Brady Cook is after his quick return from the hospital to rally Mizzou he second half last week against Auburn. Pick: Alabama -13.5
No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt
I don’t buy that Texas is in a dangerous spot traveling to Nashville this week. The Longhorns are better built — and much more consistent defensively — than previous Vanderbilt victims like Alabama and Virginia Tech. Texas still leads the nation in scoring and total defense after the 30-15 loss to Georgia, which the Longhorns held to one touchdown in the second half last week. The Longhorns also co-own the nation’s longest road winning streak (8). Diego Pavia will make a few plays to score and keep it close for a bit, but Texas rolls as the Commodores eek out a cover. Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M
The battle between the only undefeated SEC teams in College Station should be a doozy. LSU has hit its stride in recent weeks, prompting Brian Kelly to finally say last week the Tigers finally played “LSU football” for four quarters in a 24-point win at Arkansas. Texas A&M has already drilled one SEC challenger, Mizzou, at home and the night crowd will be brutal for LSU to handle.
That said, this game will be decided up front. Texas A&M’s defensive line is stellar but LSU’s offensive line has been fantastic this season, and if Garrett Nussmeier gets time in the pocket, he will deliver with Mason Taylor and Kyren Lacy. LSU’s defense is underrated, and has seemingly improved without Harold Perkins in the lineup. Whit Weeks last week was all over the field, picking off his own tipped pass to set up a touchdown, and Bradyn Swinson is second in the SEC with seven sacks. LSU snaps the seven-game winning streak by home teams in the series and takes over the top spot in the SEC (for now). Pick: LSU +2.5
I never believed it could get worse than the Byran Harsin days at Auburn, but here are the Tigers, challenging every preconceived notion about Hugh Freeze. He was supposed to turn average quarterbacks into stars, and with a top-tier running back (Jarquez Hunter) and a handful of blue-chip receivers, improvement was expected in Year 2. That hasn’t happened. In fact, Auburn is somehow worse — and frustrating, at the rate it’s blown fourth-quarter leads (Oklahoma and Mizzou). Kentucky’s defense is still strong despite the performance in a loss last week at Florida, ranking 12th nationally in yards allowed (283.6 yards per game), and beating the Tigers this week is crucial for their bowl hopes. Kentucky gets it done and covers — barely — n a low-scoring win. Pick: Kentucky -2.5
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