Welcome to the most significant week yet in the race for the College Football Playoff. Three SEC teams face elimination in two matchups — and those two games are the only ranked-against-ranked matchups in the country.
Three-loss teams aren’t necessarily mathematically eliminated from the CFP, but it appears impractical in Year 1 of the 12-team era. So many teams in the most powerful conferences in the country (Big Ten and SEC) are still in contention to finish with two losses or fewer. Eight SEC teams and four Big Ten teams qualify under those measures.
The pressure is on for the ranked, two-loss teams in the SEC this week to knock off their respective ranked rivals.
No. 3 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) and No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2) at No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-1) will set the tone for the race in the SEC, but they also will result in at least one team’s elimination from the playoff hunt. Five SEC teams enter the second weekend of November with one loss, providing a rare gridlock atop the SEC standings without a clear-cut favorite.
As for the playoff? Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU are on the cutting block Saturday with two losses. Ole Miss and LSU are underdogs by a field goal or less, according to sportsbooks.
“We screwed two games up earlier in the year, and when you do that, you put yourselves in situations,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. “So I don’t talk about playoffs normally and championships and all that because I think it really doesn’t matter. … But I told our players, because they hear it all the time, you still have that stuff alive. And in my opinion, anybody that’s going to win it, it’s going to have to go through Georgia at some point. They’re the premier program in college football.”
We struggled with our picks last week, finishing with a losing record for the second time this season, and with so many close — and frustrating — opening lines for Week 11, we’re lacking some confidence with this week’s picks as well. We gotta do what we gotta do, but first, a few interesting notes to consider.
Just a SECond
A few notes compiled by the CBS Sports Research Team:
- The last four head coaches at Alabama lost their first game against LSU. The last Alabama coach to beat LSU in his first game was Gene Stallings (1990).
- Kirby Smart’s largest loss at Georgia was a 45-14 setback at Ole Miss in 2016.
- Tennessee is the sixth SEC team in the last 50 years to hold its first eight opponents to under 20 points. The previous five won the national championship.
- Alabama (6-2) has finished with less than three losses in 13 straight seasons, the third-longest streak in the AP poll era.
- Alabama has lost three of its last four road games against ranked opponents.
- Vanderbilt’s 6-3 record is its best start since 1982.
- Georgia has beaten 35 Top 25 teams since 2016 under Kirby Smart.
- Ole Miss has started 7-2 or better in four straight seasons for the first time since 1957-63.
- The Rebels lead the nation in yards per play (7.7) and passing yards (377.1).
- This week’s meeting between Florida and Texas is the first since 1940.
- Mississippi State is one of four power conference teams without a conference win (Oklahoma State, Purdue and Cal).
Picks
Straight up: 69-19 | Against the spread: 42-39-2
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Florida at No. 5 Texas
You gotta feel bad for Florida, which has been playing with gusto for the last month but continues to run into roadblocks on the injury front. (Quarterback DJ Lagway is likely out this week after suffering a hamstring injury in a close loss to Georgia.) The good news is he may return this season. The bad news is the Gators are down to their third-string quarterback, a walk-on from Yale. Texas rested last week on an open date and can’t afford any more slip-ups as it aims to win the SEC. Billy Napier is still fighting for his job but the tenor of the conversation has leaned more in his favor in recent weeks. The Gators are 20-point betting underdogs for only the fourth time in the last 30 years. The Gators’ defense does enough to cover the spread, but Texas wins by a healthy margin. Pick: Florida +21.5
No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss
This game comes down to which quarterback plays the best. Carson Beck has thrown six interceptions in the last two games for Georgia. He is clearly still searching for a trustworthy safety valve at receiver after losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey last season. Jaxson Dart was sharp last week in a blowout of Arkansas, breaking the school’s single-game record for passing yards and touchdowns, while also becoming the winningest quarterback in school history. Dart, however, has yet to play against an elite defense, and the feeling here is Georgia’s secondary matches up well against the Rebels — even if they do get Tre Harris back from injury. Ole Miss’ defense has feasted on subpar offensive lines with 18 sacks in the last two games. Georgia isn’t Oklahoma or Arkansas. The Bulldogs win by a field goal and cover the betting line. Pick: Georgia -2.5
South Carolina at No. 24 Vanderbilt
South Carolina and Vanderbilt have both played like top-25 teams throughout the season, and on Saturday one will be able to stay in the rankings. South Carolina finally got its big win last week against top-10 Texas A&M after nearly upsetting Alabama on the road and pushing LSU to the limit earlier this season. Can Vanderbilt slow down South Carolina’s potent ground game? The Gamecocks have done well against practically everyone, particularly when upsets are on their mind. Raheim Sanders is averaging 98.5 yards against ranked teams. The deciding factor will be turnovers. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who combined for 350 yards last week, has committed six turnovers in three losses and only three in five wins. If Vanderbilt forces two or more turnovers, the Commodores win. This is a difficult pick. Pick: South Carolina -3.5
Mississippi State at No. 5 Tennessee
Mississippi State has been an elixir for struggling offenses. Arkansas unloaded 58 points on the Bulldogs two weeks ago. Tennessee, which finally snapped its cold streak against Kentucky last week, draws the perfect “get right” game before a huge showdown with Georgia on the road next week. Dylan Sampson has emerged as one of the nation’s best running backs, rushing for 100-plus in seven of his last eight outings. He broke the school record for rushing touchdowns in a season (19) last week. MSU has been a mess on defense in Jeff Lebby’s first season, and with the Vols’ defense holding the last nine opponents under 20 points, the Bulldogs’ ears will be ringing from hearing “Rocky Top” by the end of the night. Pick: Tennessee -24
No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU
Which Garrett Nussmeier shows up Saturday night? The LSU quarterback was fantastic in the first half two weeks ago against Texas A&M but fell apart after halftime with three interceptions. As a result, LSU’s 10-point melted into a 15-point loss. Alabama’s secondary is not going to scare many quarterbacks, but the Tide can mix things up and force them into mistakes thanks to their defensive line. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe is the straw that mixes the TIde’s drink. If he can find room and rushes for 50-ish yards, Alabama wins. I’d feel more confident with this pick if it wasn’t at night, but we’ll stick with the Tide as the slight favorite on sports betting apps. Pick: Alabama -3
The old BIg 12 rivals meet for the first time since 2011, and neither team is where they thought they should be at this point in the season. Missouri has laid egg after egg on the road, and Oklahoma is a disaster on offense. The Sooners bounced back last week against … Maine. Mizzou is coming off a 34-0 shutout loss at Alabama two weeks ago. There are signs of improvement at Oklahoma, where quarterback Jackson Arnold hasn’t thrown an interception in the last three games. Oklahoma’s defense is still good, and Mizzou has won eight straight home games. This should be an easy pick, but it’s not because of Mizzou’s struggles in the SEC (15.3 points per game). OU is averaging only 13.6 points in SEC games. We’ll go with the home crowd and the betting favorite.. Pick: Missouri -2
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