There’s a better-than-decent chance the preseason AP Top 25’s release will represent a shift in the college football landscape. The last decade has seen only four teams — Ohio State (1), Alabama (5), Clemson (2), Georgia (2) — hold the distinction of preseason No. 1. That’s likely to change in a few months.
Texas is the favorite to start in the top spot. It did so in 247Sports’ post-spring Top 25. CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello has Ohio State at No. 1 in his post-spring top 25. Penn State could find itself ranked No. 1 like it did in Joel Klatt’s post-spring Top 25.
LSU, Oregon, and Notre Dame at least belong in the conversation. Clemson, which hasn’t really been part of the national title discussion since the advent of NIL, got my vote for preseason No. 1 in 247Sports’ too-early Top 25 voting.
There’s a fluidity among the 2025 projected contenders we haven’t seen in the last decade. Obviously, Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama haven’t gone away. But it no longer feels obvious that one of those recruiting juggernauts — they’ve made up the top three of the 247Sports Team Talent Composite rankings for seven straight years — is destined to win the national championship.
There’s a new era of parity in college football … sort of.
Parity to a degree
Yes, NIL and the transfer portal have closed the gap in college football. But it also depends on what gap you’re talking about. In the end, high school recruiting remains the ultimate separator.
Have portal boons led to leaps in talent level for teams like Arizona State or Texas Tech? Absolutely. But there’s a reason why every national champion since 2013 reached Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio (in which 50% of its roster made up of four-star recruits or better). There’s a baseline of talent required to win in college football, especially in an era where teams must win three or four playoff games to earn a national title. Last year, Arizona State came within an eyelash of upsetting Texas, but the Sun Devils still had Ohio State and Notre Dame between them and a national title.
But it’s worth noting the difference between Georgia at No. 2 in the 2024 Team Talent Composite and say, Penn State at No. 11, is smaller than it’s ever been. That’s not because of the number of five-stars on each roster. Georgia is still more top heavy. Instead, it’s about depth.
Blue Chip Ratio for 2024 season
Take Texas, for example.
The Longhorns — which came in at No. 4 in the 2024 Team Talent Composite — had two defensive tackles drafted on Day 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft. No problem, right? Just plug and go thanks to your recruiting wins.
Not so fast.
Seven DTs played 10-plus snaps behind that drafted pair for Texas last season. Two graduated. Four entered the transfer portal.
That’s how you get to a place where Texas, after four straight top-six recruiting classes, must sign FIVE defensive tackles in the portal.
You can see examples like that across all the top rosters. Georgia lost the No. 3 player in the portal, Damon Wilson, to Missouri. Alabama lost its starting right tackle Elijah Pritchett to Nebraska. Clemson lost part-time starting DT Tre Williams to Michigan.
The top programs still have more talent than anyone, but other teams spend big to upgrade their rosters through the transfer portal. That makes keeping
depth pieces happy more difficult than it was a decade ago — when Nick Saban could basically stash a high-profile recruit for two or three years before they emerged as fully formed monsters. In this era, those players transfer after a season or two to get on the field.
So, yes, there’s a still a gap in talent between Georgia and Penn State. But it’s a lot smaller than it was five years ago.
Legit roster questions for the usual favorites
Let’s run through the usual list of favorites — all of which ranked in the top five of the 2024 Team Talent Composite — and poke some holes in their 2025 chances.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes will either start Julian Sayin (12 career pass attempts) or Lincoln Kienholz (22 career pass attempts) at quarterback. They’re replacing two first-round picks on the offensive line, two Day 2 picks at running back and eight draft picks on defense. I haven’t even mentioned the loss of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. That’s a lot!
Georgia: Gunner Stockton solidified the starting QB role for Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. But it’s worth noting the Bulldogs were hunting transfer portal quarterbacks before that performance. He’s got a lot to prove. So do his receivers in a reworked room that suffered from drop issues a season ago.
Georgia faces questions along its defensive front after losing four starters to the NFL. The Bulldogs also produced their worst pass defense since 2020 last season and lost starting safeties Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson to the draft.
Alabama: We all watched the Vanderbilt and Georgia games from last season. Alabama, despite returning the 35th most production in the FBS, has a ton to prove next season in Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer.
Texas: Yep, the Longhorns belong here after two straight trips to the CFB semifinals. But Arch Manning, despite all the hype, has only really played significant snaps against UTSA, ULM and Mississippi State. His receivers are unproven. Both Texas’ offensive tackles got drafted. The defensive tackle room — the source of Texas’ defensive dominance the last two years — is completely reworked.
Will those teams be fine? Probably! I’d be shocked if any won fewer than nine or 10 games. But their rosters present enough questions to ponder some teams outside the usual suspects.
The other options
Penn State: NIL usually is mentioned with roster acquisitions: “Who can my favorite team go out and buy in the portal?” But Michigan and Ohio State have shown retention is the key over the past two seasons. Not necessarily retention with portal, though that’s important. Instead, retention with the NFL Draft.
Both Michigan and Ohio State convinced critical starters to return to school, largely because the NIL dollars they received were comparable to what they could have earned in the pros. This year Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and defensive lineman Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant all passed on the draft.
Thus, Penn State has the 33rd-most returning production in college football coming off a season where they were a few snaps away from a national title berth. Throw in a few key acquisitions in the portal, particularly at wide receiver, and the Nittany LIons are in the best position they has ever been under James Franklin.
Clemson: The latest CBS Sports mock draft has two Clemson players going in the top 10 next year, and other outlets have as many as six Tigers going in the first round. That shows the level of talent in Death Valley for a program brings back the most production of any team in the FBS. Throw in a few key portal additions — Dabo Swinney’s first ever non-walk-on-QB transfer takes — and the Tigers have the most proven roster in college football, including the potential No.1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in Cade Klubnik.
Again, I have Clemson right now as the best team in college football and believe the Tigers are a strong favorite to win the ACC. Clemson being +1400 to win the national championship is tasty. There’s great value there. The Tigers are also +145 to win the ACC, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
LSU: There’s an argument that Garrett Nussmeier is the top returning quarterback in college football this season. Add his presence to the No. 1 transfer portal class in the country, and the Tigers have filled almost every roster hole you can think of this offseason. If a re-armed defense can take a step forward, Brian Kelly will have a playoff team (and maybe much more) in Year 4.
Meanwhile, Oregon and Notre Dame both also profile as contenders once again if their new QBs pan out the way the recruiting industry expects them to. That’s nine legit contenders entering 2025, and that’s not even counting teams like Auburn, Florida, Miami, Michigan and Texas A&M that all have an outside chance to force their way into the conversation if things break right.
The run up to the preseason feels different for a reason. For the first time in a decade, more than just a handful of teams profile as contenders. It’s not true parity. It’s still very difficult to imagine a team outside the top 20 of the Team Talent Composite winning a national title. But for a sport so long occupied by just a handful of programs, the door finally feels like it’s cracked open for a few more.
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