Who’s the favorite in the NL East now that Pete Alonso has re-signed with the Mets and all the heavy lifting seems to be done among the three heavyweights in the division?
I set out to find a consensus answer to that question, seeking the opinions of MLB scouts and executives.
The more people I talked to, the less clarity I found.
I wound up stretching my poll to include seven people, none of whom had any affiliation to the Mets, Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies, and each said that they could easily make a case for more than one team as the winner.
In the end, when pressed for predictions, the tally went like this: Phillies 3, Braves 2, Mets 2.
Perhaps most notably, beyond the vote total, just about everyone made the point that the postseason results in recent years have made it clear that winning the division isn’t as important as being healthy and hot come October, even if it’s as a wild card team.
As one team exec said: “The Phillies and Mets are all you need to know about how it’s all about playing well and riding momentum late in the year, with the way the playoff format is now. The Phillies took out the (division champion) Braves in back-to-back years, and then the Mets took out the (division champion) Phillies last year.
“Ideally, you want to be one of the top two division winners and avoid the wild-card series, but look at the Mets last year — they were the perfect example of a team carrying momentum into the postseason, playing with loads of confidence.
“So for me, the point is more that the Braves, Mets, and Phillies are all playoff-caliber teams. The bigger question may be whether any of them can beat the (Los Angeles) Dodgers.”
Fair enough.
But let’s not take the fun out of it entirely. We need a favorite, right?
And what jumps out most about the poll of humans I took is that it differs from the projections of the most notable statistical analysis systems, FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). Both of them predict that the Braves will bounce back from their injury-riddled 2024 season to win the division, albeit by significantly different margins.
FanGraphs has the Braves as sizeable favorites, projecting them for 93.4 wins, compared to 87.4 for the Phillies and 86.7 for the Mets.
PECOTA, meanwhile, projects a close race between the Braves and Mets, with the Braves (92 wins) followed by the Mets (91) and Phillies (87.9).
It should be noted, though, that both FanGraphs and PECOTA project all three teams to reach the postseason, as was the case last year.
Still, the obvious question is why the analytic systems favor the Braves.
Based on the answers that I got from baseball people, it has to do with projecting better health after Atlanta lost stars Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna for the season and other key players like Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris for significant chunks of time.
“Logic says the Braves should be healthier — I get it,” said one scout who picked the Phillies to win the division. “But I don’t think you can rule out lingering effects from injury for Strider (elbow surgery) and Acuna (knee surgery). Acuna has had ACLs on both knees now so who knows. Don’t forget, (Chris) Sale couldn’t make a postseason start due to whatever was going on with his arm, and I think they’ll need to protect him a little more.
“Also, they didn’t have a great offseason. Max Fried (to the Yankees) is a major loss for them. They’ll miss (AJ) Minter (to the Mets), too. And (Travis) d’Arnaud (to the Los Angeles Angels) got some big hits for them. Their only big pick-up was Jurickson Profar. So I can’t just assume they’ll be a 95-win team.”
On the other hand, one of the scouts who did pick the Braves explained it this way:
“Even with the injuries, I thought it was just kind of a weird year for them, like the law of averages catching up with them or something. They got great pitching, even without Strider, but they just didn’t hit. They’ve still got the best lineup in the division, they’ve got deep pitching, even though Fried is a major loss, and they know how to win.
“I expect them to pound the ball again and win a close race with the Mets and Phillies.”
OK, so the Braves get the edge from two evaluators and the data projections.
Meanwhile, the Phillies earned the nod from the human vote, close as it was. This is after they had a fairly quiet winter as well, trading for lefty starter Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins and signing Jordan Romano (coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery) to be a new anchor for the bullpen that failed them in losing the NLDS 3-1 to the Mets.
“They didn’t need to do much,” said one exec who picked the Phillies. “They ran into a buzzsaw in the Mets last year. They’ve still got a really good lineup with guys who have hit for them in the clutch in past years, and they’ve got the best starting rotation in the division.
“Don’t sleep on Luzardo. He’s been inconsistent, but he’s got great stuff. Put him in a rotation with guys like (Zack) Wheeler, (Aaron) Nola, and the others, and I could see him benefiting from that. If Romano is healthy, that’s a great addition to their bullpen. I think they’re in the mid 90s fairly routinely.”
Added a scout who also picked the Phillies:
“I just think they have the fewest question marks, top to bottom of the three teams. They’re a veteran team, they know who they are, and they play with a lot of confidence. That loss to the Mets had to stun them a little bit. I see them going out there with something to prove this year.”
Finally, the opinions on the Mets varied, primarily based on the state of their starting rotation that has significant uncertainty: Kodai Senga coming off a lost year, Frankie Montas hoping to find his form from a few years ago in his second full season after shoulder surgery, Clay Holmes transitioning from reliever to starter and David Peterson looking to build on something of a breakout season (though his total of 121 innings was his career high).
Sean Manaea looks like the closest thing to a sure bet, but even he has to prove that he can sustain success after dropping his arm angle to emulate Chris Sale and dominating in the second half of the season.
“I like their team, but I honestly am not sure what to make of that rotation,” said one scout. “They’re better offensively. (Juan) Soto should have a major effect, the way he did with the Yankees, and I thought it was important to bring back (Pete) Alonso, at least in the short-term.
“And I like the depth they’ve created in their ’pen. Minter has been really consistent getting big outs for the Braves, as long as he’s healthy (hip surgery).
“But do they have enough starting pitching to outlast the Phillies and the Braves? None of those guys, except Manaea, threw a lot of innings last year. They may have to go to a six-man rotation just to keep the totals down, as well as giving Senga extra rest, and then you’re stretching your depth. It could work for them, but you’re talking about a lot of ifs.”
Others voiced similar concerns but the two people who picked the Mets both expressed belief in the rotation, at least partly due to faith in David Stearns’ decision-making.
“He’s proven he can evaluate pitching,” said one exec. “He did it in Milwaukee and he did it last year with the Mets. I’ve heard good things about (pitching coach Jeremy) Hefner as well. Look, David still has ties to Milwaukee. He had to hear some good things about the changes Montas made after he was traded to the Brewers last year to commit those kind of dollars (two years, $34 million) to him.
“And a bunch of teams were in on Holmes as a starter. He’s a big, strong guy with elite stuff who should be able to build himself up and have success in the rotation. Also, Peterson for me was their unsung hero last year. I think it went a little under the radar how good he was down the stretch for them, and then to get big outs out of the bullpen in the postseason, I think he’ll build on that.
“They have some depth, too, and they’re at a point in the development of their farm system that I think they’ll be ready to trade prospects for an arm at the deadline. So I like their pitching. And when you add Soto and bring back Alonso, I think the Mets are built to win 95 games. In a division as competitive as that one, that should be enough to win it.”
All in all, the opinions do vary, but the one consensus among the scouts and execs was that the NL East should be the toughest division in baseball. Indeed, while the Marlins have a big rebuild ahead of them, several people noted that the Washington Nationals have the young talent to make a leap toward .500 and be a pesky team to beat.
But it’s mostly about the quality of the Mets, Braves and Phillies.
As one scout said, “It really is a beast of a division. It could well be a three-team race to the wire.”
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