The time for pleasantries has come to an end. After years away from the cage, Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano face off on May 16 inside the Intuit Dome. Netflix is betting on big numbers from two women who brought women’s MMA to new heights.
Rousey (12-2) was one of the most dominant UFC champions of all time. The Olympic medalist in judo was a massive draw at the box office thanks to her skills in the cage and her intimidating presence. “Rowdy” Ronda left MMA after two straight losses against Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes.
After competing in WWE, Rousey is back in the cage. Looking to give the sport some love again, she hopes to get some in return.
“People missed what Mike Tyson brought to the table,” Rousey told ESPN. “They missed that feeling that he gave them, and it didn’t matter that he was almost 60. If he could do it, why couldn’t I? And I’m a lot younger than 60.”
Carano (7-1) was featured in several historic matchups early on. She fought Julie Kedzie in the first televised female fight on Showtime and Cris Cyborg in the first women’s fight to headline a major MMA event. The latter fight, in 2009, was her last competitive contest.
The 44-year-old has appeared in movies and TV shows since competing in the cage. After all these years, she looks to prove she has something left to give in what will officially be her final MMA fight.
“I can’t wait to feel the music and the energy of the crowd. I want to feel that thing that I rarely felt before, but I know I’m going to access those feelings this time,” Carano told ESPN. “It’s just a centeredness, a goal in front of me, and nobody’s going to stand in front of that goal. That’s what I want. That is my moment.”
The card will also see several former champions and top prospects competing, including the likes of Francis Ngannou, Nate Diaz, Mike Perry, Junior dos Santos, Adriano Moraes, Jason Jackson and more.
With the help of the DraftKings Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight card.
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Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano odds
- Ronda Rousey -625 | Gina Carano +455
- Rousey via KO/TKO: +450
- Rousey via submission: -250
- Rousey via decision: +1200
- Carano via KO/TKO: +550
- Carano via submission: +2000
- Carano via decision: +2500
- Draw: +5000
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Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano predictions
In their prime, this would have been a matchup for the ages. Today, the matchup favors Rousey as Carano hasn’t fought since 2009.
Ronda Rousey landed 4.17 significant strikes in the octagon and had a 52% strike accuracy mark. She averaged 6.26 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, averaging 4.8 attempted submissions.
Carano landed 4.50 significant strikes and had a 47% strike accuracy mark under the Strikeforce and EliteXC banner. She also averaged 1.24 takedowns.
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Rousey’s judo is still elite, even after all these years (thanks WWE for the practice). At 44 (after her last fight in her 20s), Carano’s best bet is to strike against Rousey, who still hasn’t improved her boxing following the Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes losses. Does Carano have solid movement anymore?
If Rousey can get Carano in a compromising position, likely up close like the latter was against Cris Cyborg, she can throw her onto the floor and quickly lock in some submission for the win.
Sporting News prediction: Rousey via submission (round one)
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Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry (welterweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Mike Perry is the -205 favorite, while Nate Diaz is the +170 underdog.
Diaz is one of the most consistent strikers out there, landing 4.57 per minute. He has landed several triple-digit shots in the octagon. The Stockton native is susceptible to getting hit, absorbing 3.77 strikes. Diaz also averages 1.05 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
In the octagon, Perry landed 4.32 significant strikes and averaged 0.81 takedowns. Like Diaz, he also gets hit, absorbing 5.16 strikes. He’s won four straight wars within Bare Knuckle FC via knockout.
Both like to get hit, but it motivates them to press forward and hit their opposition harder. Both have taken serious damage. Diaz is durable and has great cardio. However, can he overcome Perry’s shots and get the win? It seems likely the unorthodox Perry gets his hand raised after a battle.
Sporting News prediction: Perry via unanimous decision
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Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins (heavyweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Francis Ngannou is the -1350 favorite, while Philipe Lins is the +800 underdog.
While with the UFC, Ngannou landed 2.33 significant strikes per minute and had a 41% strike accuracy mark. He even averaged 0.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Ngannou took out Renan Ferreira in his lone PFL fight. Knocking down Tyson Fury in a boxing match, Ngannou landed 59 of 231 strikes (25.5%).
Lins landed 3.80 significant strikes in the octagon and averaged 1.65 takedowns landed. The former PFL heavyweight tournament winner has faced several top-tier fighters between PFL, Bellator and the UFC.
Lins is a credible opponent and can try to take Ngannou down, but Ngannou, even at almost 40, is still dangerous. It may not be an automatic win, but Ngannou should use his power and his 71% takedown defense to get the win.
Sporting News prediction: Ngannou via KO (round two)
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Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross (lightweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Salahdine Parnasse is the -1350 favorite, while Kenneth Cross is the +800 underdog.
Parnasse started training in MMA at 11. The French fighter held gold in two weight divisions with KSW and has seven wins via knockout and submission. Cross competed on Dana White’s Contender Series and has eight wins via the power punch.
Parnasse is one of the best fighters not competing in the UFC. Outside DWCS, Cross competed in one Bellator bout. Given the wide odds, Parnasse’s striking ability should be too much for Cross to handle. Don’t ignore an upset, but it seems unlikely here.
Sporting News prediction: Parnasse via KO (round one)
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Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne (heavyweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Robelis Despaigne is the -375 favorite, while Junior dos Santos is the +275 underdog.
Junior dos Santos is a former UFC heavyweight champion who owns the longest win streak (nine) in the division’s history. The 42-year-old landed 4.49 significant strikes in the octagon and had a 47% strike accuracy mark. Despaigne landed 2.11 significant strikes in the octagon. He’s 7-0 with Karate Combat.
Despaigne, 37, is younger than the 42-year-old dos Santos and has been the more active fighter over the years. dos Santos can’t bring Despaigne down the floor, and it’s believed Despaigne is a better striker at this point. The fight should start the main card with a bang, coming by way of a Despaigne knockout.
Sporting News prediction: Despaigne via TKO (round one)
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Namo Fazil vs. Jake Babian (welterweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Namo Fazil is the -310 favorite, while Jake Babian is the +250 underdog.
Fazil has competed for ONE FC, UAE Warriors and more. The 29-year-old is on a six-fight win streak. Babian has won over 100 jiu-jitsu bouts. After losing his first fight, he’s won six straight, including a six-second knockout in 2025.
While Babian has plenty of jiu-jitsu experience, Fazil has faced superior competition in the cage. The fight could have a quick pace, with Fazil coming out victorious.
Sporting News prediction: Fazil via TKO (round two)
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Adriano Moraes vs. Phumi Nkuta (catchweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Phumi Nkuta is the -198 favorite, while Adriano Moraes is the +164 underdog.
A former three-time ONE flyweight champion, Moraes was supposed to fight Muhammad Mokaev. He has 11 wins via submission. Nkuta competes two months after his last fight and hasn’t had a finish since 2024.
Moraes is one of the greatest flyweights on the planet. He comes into the fight as an underdog. An upset is always on the table, as Moraes’ elite skills could be too much for Nkuta. However, Nkuta has speed and could provide enough pressure to secure the win against the former ONE ace.
Sporting News prediction: Nkuta via split decision
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Jason Jackson vs. Jefferson Creighton (welterweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Jason Jackson is the -425 favorite, while Jefferson Creighton is the +330 underdog.
Creighton, an LFA star, replaced Lorenz Larkin. He’s on a nine-fight unbeaten streak, with six straight fights won via decision. Jackson is a former Bellator welterweight champion who has gone 2-2 in his last four fights. He has six wins via knockout.
When he’s on, Jackson is considered one of the best in the game. He will have some size on Creighton. Jackson has also proven himself against elite-level competition. It’s hard to think he wouldn’t get the win against his opponent.
Sporting News prediction: Jackson via unanimous decision
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David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales (featherweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, David Mgoyan is the -625 favorite, while Albert Morales is the +455 underdog.
Mgoyan has five wins via knockout. He looked solid in one Dana White’s Contender Series fight until he got tired. Meanwhile, Morales has nine via knockout and six via submission, making him a threat on all fronts.
Age could be a factor in this fight, with Mgoyan at 21 and Morales at 34. At a young age, Mgoyan has already proven to be a problem. This could be a great showcase fight for Mgoyan.
Sporting News prediction: Mgoyan via unanimous decision
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Aline Pereira vs. Jade Masson-Wong (catchweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Aline Pereira is the -425 favorite, while Jade Masson-Wong os the +330 underdog.
Pereira is the younger sister of Alex Pereira. Her brother is known for his knockout power, and so is she, especially in kickboxing. Masson-Wong is a striker, as seen by her skills with Bare Knuckle FC.
This has the potential to steal the show. It also has the potential to be a one-sided beatdown. Pereira has a seven-inch reach advantage and is four inches taller. Masson-Wong could be in trouble on the inside. She will still look to rush in and brawl. Pereira should use her kicks to her advantage.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via TKO (round two)
Chris Avila vs. Brandon Jenkins (catchweight)
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Brandon Jenkins is the -278 favorite, while Chris Avila is the +225 underdog.
It’s Avila’s first MMA fight since 2021, competing in multiple boxing fights since. In two UFC fights, Avila landed 2.37 significant strikes per minute. Jenkins has twelve wins via knockout, with his last victory in 2024.
The fight may not be pretty, but it should feature two power punchers who can make things interesting. While Jenkins is the fresher fighter in the cage, having him as the massive favorite doesn’t compute. An Avila upset could be the play.
Sporting News prediction: Avila via TKO (round two)
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