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The Cleveland Guardians have enjoyed plenty of success at home this season, posting a 13-9 record to date.
My Reds vs. Guardians predictions see Cleveland picking up its fourth consecutive win on home soil Friday night.
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Let’s get into why with my MLB picks for May 15.
Who will win Reds vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-135)
Andrew Abbott’s profile is littered with red flags. He ranks in the 28th percentile in xERA, the 15th percentile in xBA, and the 15th percentile in K%. He’s allowing a lot of good contact and not missing many bats, which is a bad combination.
By comparison, Tanner Bibee sits 57th percentile in xERA, xBA, and K%. His xFIP and SIERA are also lower than his ERA, a signal better results are ahead.
Factor in the Cleveland Guardians are a Top-8 offense in average and wOBA vs. lefties and there is a lot working in their favor.
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COVERS INTEL:
Tanner Bibee has allowed an average of 1.9 earned runs over 20 home starts since the beginning of last season.
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Reds vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-115)
Bibee has allowed five runs at home through five starts, and seven over his last eight dating back to last season. He is a nightmare to deal with in Cleveland.
His excellent play should continue against a Cincinnati Reds offense that ranks 26th in wOBA vs. righties on the road.
While Abbott is not pitching overly well, he should benefit from playing in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. He has allowed five runs through three road starts this season – including nearly six shutout innings against the high-powered Cubs.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 17-7, +7.28 units
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Over/Under bets: 10-13-1, -4.11 units
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Reds vs Guardians odds
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Moneyline: Cincinnati +115 | Cleveland -135
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Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-175) | Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
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Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Reds vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.35 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Guardians.
How to watch Reds vs Guardians and game info
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Location |
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
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Date |
Friday, May 15, 2026 |
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First pitch |
7:10 p.m. ET |
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TV |
Reds.TV, CleGuardians.TV |
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Reds starting pitcher |
Andrew Abbott |
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Guardians starting pitcher |
Tanner Bibee |
Reds vs Guardians latest injuries
Reds vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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