Racing Insights: Is it time for a driver to win off the bubble?

It was a new winner in 2025 but a familiar face in Victory Lane at Nashville with Ryan Blaney, which now makes it four new victors in the last five weeks, setting up a similar story to follow at Michigan this Sunday (2 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

It took a while, but the list of winners is starting to grow, and with the last two races in the Irish Hills each having a track record of 16 different leaders, there’s a good chance we get our 10th season winner at Brooklyn.

RELATED: Michigan schedule | How to watch NASCAR on Prime Video

Currently, two former Michigan winners — Chris Buescher (plus-8) and Kyle Busch (plus-2) — are barely hanging on to the final two playoff spots after scrapping top-15 finishes at Nashville.

Looking back to last year, both drivers cracked the top 10 at Michigan and now have a chance to no longer be at risk on the bubble but rather cause ruckus with a win. Given the unpredictability of the racing up north, we could see the bubble battle tighten up more as regular-season racing winds down. The only concern is that neither Buescher nor Busch rank top 10 in Passer, Defense, Restart and Speed Ratings, according to NASCAR Insights. However, both have two unique stats going for them entering this weekend.

In Buescher’s case, not only did he win there more recently (August 2023), but he drives a Ford and the Blue Ovals have won nine of the last 10 races in Michigan. To boot, RFK Racing owns 14 organization wins at the track, which is the most out of any team.

For Busch, the Great Lakes State track has a history of ending lengthy winless droughts. Eight times, a driver with a winless streak of 40 or more races was to reignite the victory flame in Michigan. Though he hasn’t won there since 2011, he owns 10 top 10s in the last 12 races at the track.

On the other hand, if we get a repeat winner, there are a few standouts on who it could be.

FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: A three-time Michigan winner and probably one of the best active drivers at the track, granted, he’s never won there in Hendrick equipment. Still, Larson has finished top three in six of the last 12 Michigan races and should be firmly in the mix.

JOEY LOGANO: Another fellow three-time winner in the Irish Hills, Logano is coming off a top-five performance and needs to string more good weeks together, given Nashville was his first top five since winning at Texas.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin was able to turn things around at Nashville after four straight weeks of finishing 16th or worse. He has the chance to keep the momentum rolling at Michigan with top 10s in the last seven races in Brooklyn and two career wins at the track.

WILLIAM BYRON: Byron has been super consistent with an average finish of 9.2 to lead all full-time drivers, but the points leader is still searching for his second win of the season. He has two runner-up finishes, with the most recent one coming in last year’s race.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

Read the full article here