Progression or regression? Analyzing Evan Mobley’s mixed season

Expectations are the quickest path to disappointment. The Cleveland Cavaliers have learned that lesson the hard way.

Evan Mobley entered the 2025-26 NBA season with a bar that might have been too high to clear. Offseason buzz and previous success led to Mobley becoming a dark-horse contender for MVP. An award that’s exclusively won by the very best in the league.

It turns out Mobley is not that caliber of player. At least not yet. He’s nowhere near the MVP race and won’t even repeat as an All-NBA member this season. Projecting him to make that astronomical leap has backfired — and perhaps dampened what has otherwise been another season of steady progression from the 24-year-old star.

Look at it this way. Mobley is but a decimal point away from averaging career highs in both points and assists this season. Yet, the primary discussion revolves around whether he has taken a step backward in his development. What player flirts with personal bests while also trending in the wrong direction?

That logic doesn’t track.

The reason Mobley’s season has been framed as a disappointment is because of the expectations he rightfully set for himself. That extends to the prediction that Cleveland would once again trample the East following their 64-win season a year ago. The best-case scenario would have seen Mobley leading the MVP race while capping off consecutive campaigns at the top of the conference.

That didn’t happen. Mobely’s numbers have hardly changed while the Cavs are on pace to finish fourth in the Eastern Conference. There’s no denying that this outcome is one of the more disappointing ones.

But does it mean Mobley has actually regressed? Is failing to meet expectations the same thing as actually backsliding in development? I don’t think so. And Mobley has proven there’s still some evolution happening within his game.

Ups and Downs

While bold at the time, the prediction that Mobley could make a superstar leap was not entirely crazy. He had dominated as the third option on a historic offense last year. With injuries plaguing the roster in October, the path was cleared for Mobley to increase his usage and become Cleveland’s hero.

This led to Mobley attempting shots at a career-high rate. His team was force-feeding him the ball early and often, tossing him into the water to see if he would sink or swim. The early results leaned towards the former, with Mobley stumbling out of the gates to shoot just 46.1% from the floor in October.

Gradually, Mobley’s role was shrunk back to where he was before. He took 14.8 field goals per game in October, which decreased to 13.5 attempts in November, then finally down to 12.8 attempts in December — the exact number of shots he averaged last season. The experiment failed, and the Cavs had decided to pull the plug on Mobley taking another step forward.

Or so it seemed.

Would you believe that Mobley’s usage has not only returned, but has actually surpassed where he was in October? Mobley is now averaging 14.9 shot attempts in March, shooting nearly 60% from the floor while averaging 21.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.8 blocks.

That type of production is more in line with what we hoped to see this season.

“Evan, I think post All-Star, his numbers are just through the roof,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said. “Not just the raw numbers but the process numbers: paint shots, drive percentage, close-out efficiency. All the stuff we’re emphasizing, it’s great to confirm that he’s trending in the right direction.”

Of course, there are loads of context to go around.

Mobley was attempting twice as many three-pointers (5.8 per game) in October as he is in March (2.9). That shot diet is more in tune with his strengths. He doesn’t need to be Kevin Durant — just be Evan Mobley. Shifting his focus back to being a play-finisher in the paint has brought out the best in him.

He’s also playing next to a more traditional point guard in James Harden than he was during the early portion of the season when Darius Garland was injured, and Donovan Mitchell was running the show. That’s naturally led to easier and more efficient opportunities for Mobley.

Finally, Mobley is enjoying the benefit of playing at center now that Jarrett Allen is on the sidelines. This has granted him more space to operate and has given him the bulk of Harden’s attention in the pick-and-roll. Harden dished out five assists to Mobley in their previous win over the Chicago Bulls. Four of those came in the pick-and-roll.

All of this skews in Mobley’s favor. Yet unlike in October when he was thrown off the diving board — Mobley is actually taking this opportunity in stride. He’s swimming to his strongest stretch of the season and delivering an encouraging sign of life. This is the most Cleveland has leaned on Mobley offensively, and the best he’s responded to that additional weight.

This isn’t to say things are perfect. Mobley’s free-throw shooting has plummeted to 50% in March and a career-low 60.6% this season. He has some soul-searching to do at the line and still has to prove the rest of his success can last more than a few weeks.

But when taking nearly an entire season of work into account, it’s important not to get lost in your preseason expectations. Those are gone now. What’s left is the production on the court. Mobley has course-corrected from a slow start and gotten himself back to one of the better months of his career. That’s the furthest thing from regression.

The ultimate test will come in the playoffs, where Mobley’s performance will give us our conclusion as to whether or not he’s grown. Until then, let’s avoid lazy narratives and continue to monitor his development.

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