Patriots vs. Titans preview: Pats receivers in desperate need of a bounce-back originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — Five drops. Five.
Kendrick Bourne twice. Kayshon Boutte twice. Tyquan Thornton.
It was an epidemic. And the Patriots are hoping it was short-lived.
They survived a crippling case of the drops in Week 8 in beating the Jets, but starting this weekend in Tennessee the expectations have to be higher for that particular position group. It’s time to learn exactly what they have when it comes to the pass-catchers around Drake Maye.
During this week’s practices, it sounds like Patriots receivers did what they could to respond to their avert-your-eyes showing at home a week ago.
“I would say first, there weren’t a lot of balls on the ground,” coach Jerod Mayo said. “I think that was first and foremost, and that goes back to focus. I would also say those guys came out with good energy, knowing that the last week just wasn’t good enough. I think we all look forward to those guys going out and putting on a good performance.”
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This week in Nashville could represent a bit of a shift in receiver usage and provide a window into how the Patriots envision the future at that spot. Second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk could be back in the lineup since he’s been a full participant in practice after missing a game as he recovers from a concussion. Fourth-round rookie Javon Baker, after seeing snaps solely in the kicking game a week ago, could be in the offensive huddle as well.
“The last couple weeks, he’s put together great weeks of practice,” Mayo said. “Now, hopefully he gets an opportunity to go out there and play some receiver. He’s an explosive player. We need to see that on Sunday.”
Add those two names to second-year wideouts DeMario “Pop” Douglas and Boutte who have had impressive moments in recent weeks, and the Patriots have a core of youngsters they’d likely want to see more of throughout the remainder of 2024. Kendrick Bourne, a year removed from tearing his ACL, is a vet who similarly deserves enough in the way of snaps to prove what he can do.
How they acquit themselves as individuals could make a real impact on how the team handles its roster moving forward.
Can Bourne get back to where he was pre-injury? Is Polk a starting-caliber player? Is Baker someone who should have a roster spot locked in for 2025? Can Boutte be counted on as a consistent contributor? Can Douglas handle a steady diet of targets and stay on the field? If they’re playing Sunday, they’ll have opportunities to make plays against a hot-and-cold Titans pass defense. (More on that below.)
Fumble away those chances? Not only could the Patriots earn the dishonor of being one of just two teams to lose to Tennessee this season, but the worst offenders could be hurting their chances at a job next fall
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Christian Gonzalez vs. Calvin Ridley
When Patriots corners coach Mike Pellegrino told Christian Gonzalez last week to be ready for a one-on-one shot to Davante Adams, it was a pretty simple prognostication: Adams hadn’t seen the ball in a bit, and receivers like him tend to want the ball.
Gonzalez will see another one of those this weekend when he’s expected to run with Calvin Ridley. After moaning about his production earlier this season, now that DeAndre Hopkins has been dealt to Kansas City, Ridley — whom the Patriots pursued this offseason — is busy. He saw 15 targets against the Lions last week, catching 10 for 143 yards.
Per NextGen Stats, Ridley has now accounted for a whopping 47.7 percent of his team’s air yards (the number of yards targets travel beyond the line of scrimmage), which leads the NFL. He also leads the NFL in air yards on incomplete targets — an indication both of how much the team wants to get him involved deep and their inability to do so — with 561. No other player has 500 such yards, per NGS.
All that attention makes this a critical matchup for Gonzlaez. Without Ridley, the Titans don’t have many other avenues to move the football; they’re the league’s second-worst team when it comes to expected points added (EPA) per dropback, and their top running backs Tajae Spears (hamstring, out) and Tony Pollard (foot, questionable) are injured.
After a strong performance against Adams in Week 8, Pellegrino was asked what has made his top corner so effective this season.
“The focus on being obsessed with the receivers you’re going,” Pellegrino said of Gonzalez. “That’s super important. What’s [the receiver] doing at the line of scrimmage? What’s he doing at the top of the route? What are his mannerisms at the top? Is he speeding up or slowing down? Is his body going up? Is his body going down? I can tell him those things. But you’re proud as a coach when they can tell you those things.”
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots passing game vs. Titans defense
How this matchup plays out will of course hinge on whether or not Drake Maye — who remains in concussion protocol as of Friday afternoon — can play. But if he can, you might be surprised at what he can do against a pass defense that has some impressive statistics to this point in the season.
What if I told you that the last-place Titans (1-6) allow the NFL’s fewest passing yards allowed per game (151.6)? They’re also second in yards allowed per pass (6.2) and fifth in the NFL in completion percentage allowed (61.6).
Looks like a dominant unit on paper.
But they’ll be without their big offseason acquisition of corner L’Jarius Sneed who has been ruled out because of a quad injury. And they have just three takeaways all season, contributing to a league-worst -13 turnover differential.
Additionally, the Titans have shown some tendencies that Maye and the Patriots may be able to exploit.
For example, the Titans are among the league’s least-likely teams to use single-high-safety defenses — per Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters, they use those looks on just 47.9 percent of snaps — and are ninth-worst in the NFL when it comes to EPA allowed while in those looks.
But if the Patriots are viewed by this week’s opponent as wanting to have a run-first approach, or if the Titans feel like they want to drop a defender into the box to keep Maye’s rushing ability in check, can New England take advantage of those porous single-high looks from Tennessee?
Maye has shown a willingness to push the ball down the field in one-on-one situations to the outside when facing single-high safety coverages, and he’s had success creating some explosive plays against those types of defenses. If the Titans want to entice him to try again this week, odds are he won’t hesitate to look for big gainers to the outside.
Tennessee is sixth-best in the NFL from an EPA standpoint when using two-high safety shells. They can disguise their intentions from those looks and muddy the picture for quarterbacks. But perhaps that leaves running room for what has been a struggling Patriots running game, and perhaps Maye’s middle-of-the-field pass-catchers like Douglas and Hunter Henry — arguably his two best — can find open space against those looks.
It might not be perfect. Especially after a week of limited practice reps. But Maye might be able to puncture a Titans defense that, on paper, has been one of the best against the pass in 2024.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Patriots offensive line vs. Jeffery Simmons
Familiarity breeds competence along the offensive line, and the Patriots have benefited from having a little more consistency up front from a personnel standpoint.
They’ve seen their pressure rate allowed over the last four weeks fall steadily from 51.4 percent… to 47.6… to 38.1… to 30.6 last week against the Jets.
And there’s reason to believe that could continue to tick in the same direction this week against the Titans. A middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks (32.4), Tennessee hasn’t been able to rack up many “quick” (less than 2.5 seconds after the snap) pressures this season. According to NGS, they’ve accumulated just 34 of those, which is the seventh-fewest in football.
And yet, Jeffery Simmons remains a scary matchup.
He’s this year’s sixth-best run-game defender among interior linemen, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s a two-time Second-Team All-Pro (2021, 2022), and he’s going against a line that has at times had difficulty communicating things like stunts along the line of scrimmage. Tennessee, per MatchQuarters, possesses the fifth-highest run-stunt rate in the NFL.
For Patriots center Ben Brown and guards Michael Jordan and Mike Onwenu, ensuring Simmons doesn’t wreck the game has to be a priority.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Titans 17
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