PALM BEACH, Fla. — The annual “State of the Patriots” conversation happens this week during the NFL Owners Meetings at the oh-so-opulent Breakers.
First-year head coach Mike Vrabel speaks early Monday at the Coaches’ Breakfast. We expect owner Robert Kraft to spend time with the media Tuesday. If this year is like every other, words will be spoken by both men that fans and media will reference and re-reference all year long. And sometimes, even longer.
Last year, it was Kraft saying in part, “We might struggle more than I want …” then adding ominously, “I just hope we don’t struggle…”
In 2023, it was Kraft continuing a 2020s tradition of saber-rattling at Bill Belichick, saying, “In the end, this is a business. You either execute and win or you don’t. That’s where we’re at. We’re in a transition phase.”
He also called Belichick out for the decline of Mac Jones — “I think we experimented with some things last year that frankly didn’t work when it came to (Mac), in my opinion” — and attempted to make clear it was Belichick making the spending decisions on players.
“Ownership has always made the cash available,” he said. “Money spending will never be the issue. I promise you. Or I’ll sell the team.”
Belichick, at that point, was unbothered. Asked what reason he’d give for fans to have faith after an 8-9 year in 2022, Belichick said, “The last 25 years.”
That was … not to be.
Bottom line: We will get plenty to chew on from both Vrabel and Kraft in their time in front of the microphones. We’ll also get a lot of insight into how league movers and/or shakers perceive the Patriots’ ongoing post-Tom Brady rebuild, which is now entering its sixth year – not yet half as long as the Big Dig (1991-2006), but getting there.
The No . 1 storyline to me as we take the pulse and set expectations?
The core, the core, the core.
The Patriots have been — as promised — aggressive in free agency. It would be stunning if there wasn’t obvious improvement in the product and in the win-loss column.
But despite the adds, this team still doesn’t have a core of existing players who will likely be here when they get back to being contenders.
Think about it: This is still a rebuilding year. If they hang around the outskirts of the playoff hunt, that’s probably a success.
Next year, they should be challenging for a playoff berth deep into the season, if not getting in.
And in 2027, they should be a playoff team. That, I imagine, is the consensus among fans and the media.
Excellent young quarterback; hard-edged veteran coach who knows what he’s doing and is itching for this second chance; cap space available; and money spent. A three-year timetable is the default.
But ask yourself this: Who on the current team will be here in three years? Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez. Milton Williams. Maybe DeMario Douglas and Marte Mapu. Hopefully Caedan Wallace and Layden Robinson.
Who else? Rhamondre Stevenson? Kyle Dugger? Christian Barmore? Mike Onwenu? Hunter Henry? Austin Hooper? Ja’Lynn Polk? Stefon Diggs? Keion White? Jabrill Peppers? Jahlani Tavai? Carlton Davis? Mack Hollins? Kendrick Bourne? Cole Strange? Morgan Moses? Garrett Bradbury?
I’d wager the overwhelming majority of the second group will be gone. And — aside from Maye, Gonzalez and Williams – how many of guys who might stick are legitimately good players at this point who make opponents sweat? None.
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The Patriots roster is still built on sand because the drafting has been so, so horrendous for years. A lot of the players mentioned above may help the Patriots be good THIS year — Moses, Henry, Dugger — but the average NFL lifespan says they’ll be gone by the time Drake Maye is entering his prime years.
Which underscores the importance of this draft. They cannot walk away with one good (possibly great) player, one or two OK ones and then throw up on themselves with every other pick.
That’s what happened the last two years. The previous three were even worse.
Kraft has said time and again that the team cannot be built through free agency. It’s all about the draft. He’s right. He’s a box and paper guy, but he’s right.
The solution to all the strife caused by Belichick’s decade of draft travails? Boy genius Eliot Wolf, elevated to save the day. He immediately threw gas on the roster inferno last April. His entire offseason was like listening to someone play piano with oven mitts. Never mind the fact Wolf was on the scene from 2021 to 2023 when the drafting really got heinous.
Somehow, Wolf gets another crack at having a say in this year’s draft, which may well dictate how the Vrabel Era actually goes. There’s no shortcut. And it’s always been true for this franchise.
The Patriots of the 1970s were built on draftees like John Hannah, Sam Cunningham, Darryl Stingley, Russ Francis, Steve Nelson, Rod Shoate, Mike Haynes, Pete Brock, Tim Fox, Raymond Clayborn, Stanley Morgan, Horace Ivory and Don Hasselbeck. And that’s just the guys they took in the first two rounds!
The 1990s Patriots rose on the drafting of Drew Bledsoe, but Bill Parcells and his personnel staff killed it elsewhere too with Chris Slade, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Curtis Martin, Ted Johnson, Lawyer Milloy, Terry Glenn and Tedy Bruschi. Every one of those players was taken in the first three rounds between 1993 and 1996.
The Pats of the aughts? From 2001 to 2005, they took Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Deion Branch, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Daniel Graham, Ben Watson and Logan Mankins in the first two rounds.
The success of the 2010s? Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Nate Solder, Shane Vereen, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower were all taken in the first two rounds between 2008 and 2012. Throw in late-rounders like Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater and James White while you’re at it.
That’s how you build a contender. And the fact is, the Patriots haven’t even started building the core that should grow with Drake Maye.
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