We continue our PensBurgh over/under series this week with a look at some of the Pittsburgh Penguins depth players and what they might be capable of this season.
Among the many surprises the Penguins had in 2025-26 was the emergence of their fourth line, specifically as it related to Blake Lizotte and Connor Dewar. Both players played well enough to earn long-term contract extensions with the team, that are not only reasonable salary cap numbers, but also appropriate term lengths that should not make them liabilities long-term.
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Here is a quick look at the other over/unders we have looked at so far:
Let’s get into today’s players and potential numbers.
Blake Lizotte: Over/under 1.5 shorthanded goals
Lizotte has been one of the Penguins’ top penalty killers since arriving in Pittsburgh, and has also had a knack throughout his career of producing offense on the penalty kill. Entering the 2026-27 season he has seven shorthanded goals in 434 career games, and has scored at least one in five of his seven full seasons in the league. That includes each of the past three seasons where he has accounted for four of them despite playing in only 176 games.
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Over that time period 132 forward have logged at least 250 minutes of shorthanded ice-time, with Lizotte’s 0.75 goals per 60 minutes ranking 24th among that group, while also producing 0.48 individual expected goals per 60 minutes in that time. He gets his chances, and he creates some opportunities.
Had he not missed so much time over those three years it is not a stretch to think that he could have potted at least one or two more.
With Noel Accairi now playing in Philadelphia, it seems logical to assume that Lizotte’s PK role will take on even more importance, and if he can manage to stay on the ice you have to figure he is going to get some opportunities.
Will it be enough, and will he be dangerous enough to score two shorthanded goals this season?
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Connor Dewar: Over/under 12.5 goals
When the Penguins traded a fifth-round pick at the 2024-25 NHL Trade Deadline to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Dewar and defenseman Connor Timmins it did not really register much for me. It just seemed like a, “okay, that happened,” type of move, and perhaps something to just fill out a roster for the rest of the season and give them some options for the 2025-26 season.
It has turned out to be a sneaky win for Kyle Dubas.
Dewar has become an extremely effective fourth-liner.
They flipped Timmins and organizational depth piece Isaac Belliveau to Buffalo for defenseman Connor Clifton and, more importantly, a second-round pick in 2025 that turned out to be defenseman Peyton Kettles, who is now one of the organization’s top prospects. Pretty strong value for a fifth-round pick and AHL roster fodder.
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Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Dewar has scored 18 goals in 95 regular season games, while also adding two goals in six playoff games. Those 20 goals in 101 total games round out to an 82-game average of 16.2 goals. That’s closer to third-line production than fourth-line production.
That jump in goals has come with a spike in shooting percentage, going up 13.1 percent with the Penguins after being just 8.0 percent during his time with the Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild. Had he shot at 8 percent over those two seasons with the Penguins his 20 goals would have gone down to about 12 goals. That would average out to 10 goals per 82 games played, which is probably more in line with what you would expect from a fourth-line depth player whose focus is more on defense than goal-scoring.
Is he simply a better player now in Pittsburgh with more opportunity?
Will the two extra games in the regular season help him get a little more shot volume?
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Will all of that add up into more than 12.5 goals for the season?
Justin Brazeau: Over/under 41.5 games played with the Penguins
In the first part of the 2025-26 season Brazeau was one of the Penguins’ biggest surprises. He scored 12 goals in his first 24 games through the end of December, and rapidly emerged as a steal of a free agent signing at just $1.5 million per season. He brought size, physical play, and a surprising scoring touch to the lineup, while also displaying some shockingly good hands for a player of his size. He has always been a late-bloomer at every level he played at, and it seemed to be happening again for the Penguins.
But he cooled off considerably in the second half of the season, scoring just five goals over his last 40 games of the regular season.
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Injuries no doubt played a role in that, but you also had to expect some sort of a regression. It happened.
Here is the problem I see for him this season: Where, exactly, does he fit in the lineup on a regular basis? The Penguins have 16 or 17 NHL-caliber forwards right now at a minimum, including the proven top-six veterans (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell), the other depth players (Lizotte and Dewar), a lot of younger/new players that figure to be regulars in the lineup (Egor Chinakhov, Nicholas Robertson, Ben Kindel) and a lot of younger players that will be competing for games and playing time (Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty, Elmer Soderblom, Hendrix Lapierre, Avery Hayes). Including Brazeau, that is 16 forwards. Only 12 forwards are going to dress. Is Brazeau one of the best 12 forwards? Is there another trade to be made to open up a roster spot? You figure some of those younger players are going to end up in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at the start. Could Brazeau himself be a potential trade piece given the roster and the fact he is in the last year of his contract and an unrestricted free agent after this season?
I like Brazeau as a player. I like what he brings and potentially brings. There will also inevitably be injuries and some of the younger players starting in the American Hockey League, all of which will create some sort of a roster opening for Brazeau at times. But I am just having a hard time seeing where he fits at the moment.
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