Opinion: The Pittsburgh Penguins May Just Be Real Contenders

Going into the 2025-26 season, there were many conversations folks thought the Pittsburgh Penguins would be having by the time the 2026 Olympic break came around.

There was the anticipated discussion over which of their big players – namely Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust – would be on the roster by the end of the season. There was discourse about how big GM/POHO Kyle Dubas was going to sell at the trade deadline, as selling more probably meant a higher likelihood of a lottery pick. And there was the also going to be talk around the career of Evgeni Malkin, which – although that is still set to happen between Malkin and Penguins’ management over the break – has basically evolved into a more sure thing.

But something that not many thought would be discussed much in relation to the Penguins was Stanley Cup contention. And there is a lot of season left, even if things are looking much better than expected so far.

However, it may be time to start discussing the Penguins as not just playoff contenders, but as a team that is capable of greater heights this season.

For starters, the East is pretty wide open, and that’s not just in reference to the wild card race. The Penguins currently sit second in the Metropolitan Division, and they are eight points back of the division-leading Carolina Hurricanes with a game in hand. They also have three games against Carolina in March, which will be critical for them.

And so far, the Penguins have excelled against all four East teams above them in the overall standings. Pittsburgh is a combined 5-2-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Montreal Canadiens, and the Detroit Red Wings, and both of their regulation losses have come against the Canadiens. They are also 10-1-5 against the Metropolitan Division this season, which is a drastic improvement over last season.

Not only that, but they are clicking on all cylinders. Their defensive metrics are now floating around league-average, which is a drastic improvement on their start to the season. Their penalty kill is up to third in the NHL (84 percent) and has allowed only six power play goals in 57 opportunities since the holiday break – including just three in their last 42. Despite recent struggles, their power play is still fourth in the league at 25.9 percent, and they’re controlling a lot of five-on-five play against legitimately good hockey teams.

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In other words, this Penguins’ team isn’t the same team that has missed the playoffs the last three seasons. Moneypuck.com now has Pittsburgh at an 85.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is higher than all but six teams in the NHL – three of which are in the West’s Central Division. The only East teams with higher odds are the Hurricanes and Lightning.

And their Cup odds? 4.8 percent, and aside from the aforementioned teams, the Edmonton Oilers are the only other team with higher Cup odds than the Penguins at 5 percent.

Those are just some of the raw league-wide numbers, too. They don’t take into account the four-line offensive depth that the Penguins boast – depth that has contributed to the third-highest goal differential in the East and seventh-highest in the league at plus-23. They are also 10th in team goaltending – which shows they’re not entirely reliant on it – and they have the 16th-ranked PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) in the league at 100.54, indicating that they’re not good because of luck.

The big guys are getting the job done as usual, but so are the young guys like forwards Ben Kindel and Rutger McGroarty and goaltender Arturs Silovs. And so are all of the guys that Dubas took a chance on, including defensemen Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea as well as forwards Justin Brazeau, Egor Chinakhov, and Connor Dewar.

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The Penguins are on track to end the regular season with 103 points. They’re also on track to have seven players score 20 or more goals and 10 players register 40 or more points.

They have all the makings of a legitimate playoff contender, and they also have the makings of a contender for the Eastern Conference. It’s probably about time that folks shift the conversation from whether or not the Penguins are playoff contenders to whether or not this team could legitimately win the East.

Getting the to the playoffs is the first step, of course. Their March schedule will not be easy, and they are playing a lot of top teams. But if these Penguins manage to pick up right where they left off before the Olympic break – and if they add another piece at the trade deadline to help them down the stretch run, however small a move – they could be a team to pay attention to in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs.

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