We’re only a couple weeks into college football season and mass changes have come to the national rankings with several expected contenders taking early lumps ahead of Week 3’s loaded schedule of games.
Parity was expected in 2025 following the House v. NCAA settlement and its effect on roster building, examples we’re already seeing come to light. Early results have also provides harsh realities for every program, even the squads who are unbeaten and climbing toward frontrunner status in the playoff conversation.
After chatting with insiders for various programs and relaying what our eyes are telling us after two weeks, here’s one thing to watch for every squad inside the current AP Top 25 poll moving forward.
Tennessee, Josh Heupel have a Kirby Smart problem — and they can’t take the next step until they solve it
Austin Nivison
Harsh reality: Figuring out secondary rotation
Missouri feels great about cornerbacks Drey Norwood and Toriano Pride Jr., but depth is limited there once you get past Stephen Hall from a rotation sense. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels found success on timing-based routes last weekend, but the Tigers lived to fight another day after falling behind by two scores in the first quarter. Daniels can expose any defense that isn’t prepared with his running ability, but Missouri managed to corral the dual-threat QB and keep him under wraps outside of the pocket.
Harsh reality: Jury still out on defense’s strengths
Only Kentucky has given up more plays spanning 10 or more yards than Auburn (26) two games into the season, but the Tigers have flexed when it matters on third down and in the red zone. Tackling issues in the opener against Baylor weren’t as prevalent during last week’s destruction of Ball State, partly because Sawyer Robertson wasn’t suiting up at quarterback for the opposition.
Harsh reality: Mixed bag at wide receiver
Five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has looked the part offensively, but does Michigan have enough talent around him in the passing game to be a threat in the Big Ten championship picture? That remains to be seen early. Indiana transfer WR Donaven McCulley had a 44-year grab at Oklahoma, but he was the only wideout to catch more than one pass against the Sooners. Tight end Marlin Klein was the top target in the opener with six receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown on Underwood’s lone scoring toss through two weeks.
22. Indiana
Harsh reality: No bulletin board material for Curt Cignetti
No one’s overlooking the Hoosiers this season coming off the playoff appearance and the man in front of the microphone must work a little harder for motivation approaching his Big Ten opener in a few weeks. Thanks to soft nonconference scheduling, Indiana will be 3-0 without facing a hint of adversity when Illinois rolls in on Sept. 20.
Harsh reality: Creampuff schedule not assisting
Our preseason Big 12 champion pick, Texas Tech’s humiliated Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State over its first two contests and host winless Oregon State this weekend. Sure, the offensive numbers are going to look great for quarterback Behren Morton and this unit, but it’s not going to prepare the Red Raiders well for what they will see at Utah later this month. The conference opener is the first true test that determines whether Joey McGuire’s team is worthy of such lofty projections.
20. Utah
Harsh reality: Unknown kicking game
Utah’s new offense has been fireworks-heavy early with Devon Dampier leading the way, so the Utes haven’t asked freshman kicker Dillon Curtis to work all that much on special teams. His only field goal attempt was true from 54 yards out, but he did miss an extra point against UCLA. Given what Utah’s had at the position in recent years with reliable Cole Becker, at some point the Utes will expect Curtis to step up in a crucial situation against a Big 12 foe. And right now, we don’t know when that will come.
Harsh reality: Pressure to perform under week-to-week scrutiny
When your roster is the second-most talented in college football, elite expectations come with that. Needless to say, failing to pass the eye test results in immediate hot-seat talk for Kalen DeBoer, whose program failed to meet its standard in the opener at Florida State. The Crimson Tide’s final script isn’t written yet, but its upcoming showdown with Georgia in a few weeks would quickly mar the season if there’s another lopsided loss.
Harsh reality: Acquiring a bullseye the size of the Sunshine State
USF has a chance this week to beat a third consecutive nationally-ranked opponent and in the process, officially take the crown of the state of Florida’s best team during the first month of season. No disrespect to Mike Norvell and the Seminoles, but what Alex Golesh is doing in Tampa has been more impressive considering his program wasn’t one of the teams mentioned amongst Group of Six playoff contenders merely two weeks ago. Despite USF’s top returning defender Bernard Gooden leaving after spring practice for LSU in the portal, this unit has looked the part. The Bulls are marked now and staring at the opportunity of producing the best season in program history this fall, but it’s early.
Harsh reality: Stopping the run with Arkansas next
Loaded with new starters, the Ole Miss defensive front has struggled against the run. Only six Power Four programs have given up more rushing yards than the Rebels (363) this season and Lane Kiffin’s team hosts Arkansas this weekend. The competition’s been light for the Razorbacks, but they’re averaging a conference-high 7.5 yards per carry with quarterback Taylen Green already at 192 yards on the ground. This is a balanced offense under Bobby Petrino that could potentially give Ole Miss fits if they’re able to perform efficiently in the run game.
Harsh reality: Aggies must tread lightly with Marcel Reed
The straw who stirs the drink offensively, Reed hasn’t turned it over yet this season and looks polished as an improved passer. That said, he’s taken too many hits the first two games, absorbing one against Utah State late in the third quarter that left him on the ground for several minutes while being attended to by trainers. Mike Elko has an elite roster in College Station with a talented two-deep, but keeping his sophomore leader healthy is of utmost importance. Less designed runs against Notre Dame this weekend would be ideal.
Harsh reality: Once favorable SEC slate has changed considerably
Tennessee’s path toward a return trip to the playoff was clear a month ago. Handle business against Syracuse in the opener and get to 10 wins by splitting nationally-ranked matchups with Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Florida. Well, Syracuse looks like a disaster in Year 2 under Fran Brown while two other teams that were once seen as walkovers — Mississippi State and Arkansas — are 4-0 with red-hot offenses. The trips to Tuscaloosa and Gainesville may not be as daunting, but games inside Neyland Stadium with Oklahoma and Vanderbilt could be more challenging than anticipated. If the Vols end their skid against the Bulldogs this weekend and open SEC play with a victory, Tennessee will then move into the playoff picture as a legitimate league title contender.
Harsh reality: Wide receivers are missing in action
Rocco Becht’s thrown for 595 yards and six touchdowns without an interception this season, but the unbeaten Cyclones don’t have a pass-catching threat who strikes fear in opposing defenses. East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell was tabbed as a boom-or-bust player in the preseason and thus far, he’s caught two passes for 17 yards. Tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer have accounted for 23 receptions, 255 yards and four scores as the team’s steadiest targets while wide receiver Brett Eskildsen is averaging 23.1 yards per catch, much of that coming on a 66-yard gainer against South Dakota. Replacing a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins was going to be difficult and Iowa State’s facing that obstacle now.
13. Oklahoma
Harsh reality: Watch out for turnover margin
The Sooners lead in the SEC in giveaways (4) this season and are the only team in the league that has yet to get a takeaway. Turnover margin is a fickle statistic not always indicative of good or bad seasons, but this is an area to watch for Brent Venables’ squad. Since 2020, only one of 14 SEC teams who finished minus-4 or worse for the season in turnover margin had a winning record (South Carolina in 2022). And the meat of Oklahoma’s grueling SEC slate soon comes.
Harsh reality: Cade Klubnik must improve
Don’t blame Clemson’s run game on Klubnik’s struggles thus far. The Tigers are still working on things there with Adam Randall assuming RB1 billing after his first 100-yard game. But for Klubnik, one of the nation’s most decorated quarterbacks coming into the campaign, the preseason All-ACC performer has not played with confidence. Bad decisions have led to mistakes and he has misfired on several throws that Clemson OC Garrett Riley expects him to complete. For Clemson to be a playoff team, Klubnik has to be great. And he’s simply been a middle-of-the-road player at this point as a junior.
11. South Carolina
Harsh reality: Offensive line is a significant worry
After being pushed around at times by Virginia Tech in the season opener, this group failed to impress again in last Saturday night’s lackluster effort against South Carolina State. The Gamecocks opened with three consecutive three-and-outs before managing their first chain-moving completion at the 10:48 mark of the second quarter. South Carolina’s offense only mustered two of the team’s five total touchdowns despite playing an FCS opponent and picked up just 253 total yards in the game. LaNorris Sellers has been sacked six times through two weeks, the highest total in the SEC.
10. Florida State
Harsh reality: Spotlight is scorching
There’s a lot to like about this version of Florida State. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is playing at an extremely high level and is a puzzle-like fit in Gus Malzahn’s scheme while Tony White’s revised defense flies to the football. What happens when the Seminoles play an opponent this season that can match their physicality up front? The good news is that’s only coming a couple of Saturdays, namely against Miami, Clemson and perhaps Florida, moving forward. Expectations are now playoff-worthy and avoiding upsets is the goal in ACC play the rest of the way for a team that, at least from the outside looking in, appears to be on a mission.
9. Illinois
Harsh reality: Playoff committee will have its mind made up by mid-October
Most of college football’s top teams improve as the season progresses and play their best during the home stretch. For Illinois, the jury will be out on this squad’s playoff hopes based on what transpires prior to the Illini’s first open date next month. Bret Bielema won’t have the luxury of extra prep time for one of his team’s three biggest games left on the docket (Indiana, USC, Ohio State), all of which come over the next five games. And if Illinois loses both contests left on the slate against ranked competition (Hoosiers, Buckeyes) and finishes 10-2, the selection committee may not deem the leftover wins impressive enough for a bid. This is an unbalanced slate for the Illini, one they need to make the most of in their series of big-time matchups happening over the next few weeks.
8. Notre Dame
Harsh reality: Loss in home opener could prematurely end 2025 CFP hopes
Hate using the phrase “must-win game” in Week 3 of the season, especially in the expanded playoff era, but Notre Dame’s end game of getting back to the postseason bracket could be snuffed out early if the Fighting Irish fall this weekend to Texas A&M. Marcus Freeman and his team have had an extra week of prep time for the Aggies, who come in hobbled a bit after quarterback Marcel Reed took several shots in the win over Utah State. Stopping the run and playing with more ferocity at the line of scrimmage has to happen for Notre Dame next time out or this preseason top 10 team will fall out of the title conversation and may not return.
Harsh reality: Arch Manning-to-Ryan Wingo punch isn’t there yet
This offense rebounded against San Jose State but still wasn’t precise the way most were envisioning from the Longhorns this season. There’s time for that to happen and it starts with Manning giving Wingo, a fellow former five-star, more accurate targets when opportunities arise. Manning threw behind Wingo a couple times against Ohio State and failed to see him on a slant in the red zone. All of his five touchdown passes thus far have gone to Parker Livingstone and tight end Jack Endries, not the difference-making WR1 who averaged 16.3 yards as a freshman in a crowded room last fall. Despite the inconsistencies, the Longhorns are tied for the third-best odds (+700) to win the national title according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
6. Georgia
Harsh reality: Fourth-year quarterback Gunner Stockton is gun shy
Kirby Smart wants to see growth out of his starting quarterback. And frankly, Stockton has looked petrified to make a decision downfield over his first three starts dating back to last season’s playoff loss to Notre Dame. There were a couple of third down opportunities against Austin Peay last weekend in which Georgia kept possessions alive via checkdowns from Stockton. Instead of launching throws to the second level, Stockton took profit in the short game. Will those be available at Tennessee or will the Bulldogs have to find explosives? We’ll know in a couple days.
5. Miami
Harsh reality: Mario Cristobal has been in this position before
Don’t make those playoff reservations just yet, Miami fans. The Hurricanes climbed to No. 5 in the AP poll last season with a 9-0 start before capsizing late. They were 4-0 and ranked in 2023 as well under Cristobal before the walls caved in. In other words, we know what September usually looks like for this program, but it’s what happens after that ultimately determines success or failure. Miami’s next three games are a potentially season-defining stretch against USF, Florida and Florida State.
Harsh reality: Adversity may not strike until Week 5
Dan Lanning and his staff isn’t going to know what the Ducks are made of this fall until they travel to Penn State in Week 5. That’s not to say clubbing Oklahoma State by 66 points wasn’t impressive, or likely upcoming big wins over Northwestern and Oregon State, but no opponent has matched up athletically to this point and that’s a testament to the resources and time allotted to recruiting and talent accumulation in Eugene. There’s a worry the rug could be pulled out from under the Ducks in Happy Valley, especially if Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes hasn’t found his footing in the backfield yet alongside Noah Whittington.
3. LSU
Harsh reality: Pressing panic on the run game
Brian Kelly ripped his team for getting whipped at the line of scrimmage following last Saturday’s win over Louisiana Tech, failing to run the football with success for the second straight week. The Tigers have produced nothing from their backfield outside of a 43-yard run from freshman Harlem Berry over the weekend. Caden Durham is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and LSU ranks last in the SEC at 118 rushing yards per game. More than half of the Tigers’ rushing total in the home opener came on explosive plays from wideouts Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas. OC Joe Sloan is having to manufacture things a bit and that’s not a good sign in hopes of alleviating some of the pressure off quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
2. Penn State
Harsh reality: Alert this elite team the season has started
Penn State is 2-0 and has outscored its opponents 80-11 in the process. However, if you watched the Nittany Lions against Nevada and FIU, you likely came away wanting more offensively. Maybe it’s nit-picky, but third-down execution has lacked (9 of 25) and a 42-yard touchdown pass from Drew Allar to Devonte Ross last weekend was the only play thus far in the passing game that sparked any sign of positivity. Face it, Penn State will go through the motions again in Week 3 against Villanova before the Big Ten opener against unbeaten Oregon gets the engine running.
1. Ohio State
Harsh reality: Buckeyes miss backfield standouts
TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 2,076 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns last season, so there was bound to be a statistical drop-off in 2025 for Ohio State’s backfield. Ryan Day and Brian Hartline are still figuring out what works and the right rotation with the replacement duo of CJ Donaldson and James Peoples, along with the arrival of freshman Bo Jackson. Donaldson had 19 carries against Texas before minimal work in Saturday’s blowout win over Grambling while Peoples has 18 totes over the first two weeks.
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