Randy Arozarena isn’t all that streaky, but he is on a streak right now.
Arozarena has been the Mariners best hitter this year. His 148 wRC+ is best among the qualified hitters on the team, and his 1.8 fWAR makes him a top 25 player in the majors. He’s more than half-way to his 2.9 fWAR from last year, in about a quarter of the games. It’s looking like a career year.
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But one thing I’ve often said about Arozarena is that he’s streaky. Last year, for instance, Arozarena posted a 136 wRC+ in the first half — also pacing for a career year — before posting a 97 wRC+ in the second half. That’s just Randy, I thought, like this is just Randy now.
I tried to measure that hot-and-cold tendency. I found every batter with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2021. I found their rolling wOBA and xwOBA over each 100 plate appearance stretch. I then found the standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each player — basically, how much does their performance change relative to their personal average.
Arozarena… showed nothing. He is almost exactly the median player by these measures, meaning he was neither particularly streaky nor particularly non-streaky. His performance is about as normal as it gets. I tried different plate appearance thresholds and different spans of years- nothing. Arozarena has been remarkably consistent in his unremarkable consistency. I guess this was just something I made up in my head.
For instance, here’s one of the 10 least consistent hitters since 2024, Jorge Polanco, presented in 100-PA increments:
You can see Polanco’s line begins at the end of his first 100 plate appearances with the Mariners, where he hovered near average. Then he slumped, got hot, and slumped again… only to come out in 2025 and post one of the best months in team history, before slumping and finishing the year on fire… and now he has a 54 wRC+ with the Mets and an achilles injury.
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Here’s Randy, on the other hand:
And yeah, that looks more consistent. He starts very low, with the unfortunately-timed slump to begin 2024. But then he figures it out, gets hot after joining the Mariners, and lands firmly above average through April 2025. He slumped briefly last May before riding a long hot streak, then returned to average through the end of the season. So, yes, he has been streaky, but all hitters are streaky.
Of course, this is all just pretense to direct your attention to where the lines end on the plot above: The present. We can see by wOBA, Arozarena has performed well most of the year. But we can also see that his xwOBA is much lower. In fact, Arozarena’s .379 wOBA and .327 xwOBA represent one of the five largest gaps of 2026.
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The whole profile is different this year. His 41.1% hard hit rate is much less than his career-best rate of 50.6% from 2025. His barrel rate is also more than halved. Most of his contact is now aimed at the ground, spiking his ground ball rate from 42.6% to 54.0% (one of the largest changes in the league). His line is largely the result of sneaking soft grounders through the infield and a .393 BABIP. Maybe Arozarena isn’t a streaky player historically, but this particular streak I expect to reverse course sometime in the near future.
That said, it’s not all bad. Arozarena is still finding better launch angles overall this year. His 35.5% sweet spot rate is a career best. That’s because, by turning toward the ground, he’s all but eliminated pop ups. It’s good to hit the ball in the air because that’s how you hit homers. But aiming too high is an auto-out, whereas even weak grounders come with a minimum .200 batting average. Arozarena is now hitting a lot of high grounders and flares that are good for singles. He’s making a lot less perfect contact, but his imperfect contact has improved dramatically. His xwOBA on non-barrels has leapt 30 points this year (.319), one of the 20-best marks in the majors.
I also think the contact is getting better overall. Arozarena was perhaps the lone example of a guy who’d actually lost bat speed in the early season — he lost so much bat speed that he brought the team average down with him. His bat speed is now back to normal, and his hard hit rate is up to 45% in May from 37% in April.
Arozarena also is swinging more, chasing more, and just overall being a lot more aggressive early in counts. And his swing is a little different, too. He’s both getting out in front of pitches, and also angling his bat more to the opposite field. He’s also really excited about fastballs up this year for some reason:
And so a lot of his hits look like this:
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I’m really not sure what to make of it. Sometimes with these things I know what I’m going to say and where I’m going to land. Sometimes I find that along the way. But yeah, no, this is just bizarre more than anything.
Randy in 2026 looks like a fundamentally different hitter. I’ve always thought of him as kind of a wanna-be three true outcome guy — working counts, letting the ball travel, swinging hard and up. And now, for whatever reason, he’s become more of a slasher, swinging early and often and at anything close. His strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is unchanged, which is good. But the lesser contact quality is concerning, and I don’t see him getting to 20 homers this year without some changes. He’s given himself over to the whims of BABIP, and we’ll see how far that takes him.
Still, the great irony here is that Arozarena’s xwOBA is .327 — identical to his mark last year (and .005 off the year before). So while I’m skeptical of his status as a top 25 hitter, he’s probably still in the top 50, and certainly in the top 100.
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I guess that’s where my misplaced notion of his streakiness comes from. You just never really know what you’re gonna get with Arozarena. One day he’s a slugger. The next he’s slapping the ball the other way. One day he goes diving into the wall in left for an out. The next he’s walking toward the gap with runners on base. Consistently surprising. Surprisingly consistent. That’s just Randy.
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