The Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers enter the Stanley Cup Finals playing some of their best hockey of the season. The two teams also entered the playoffs as the third seed in their divisions and did not have home-ice advantage in any of the series they played.
The Oilers enter the finals with a 12-4 record, and the Panthers enter with a 12-5 record. The Oilers lead the NHL in goals per game in the playoffs (4.06), and the Panthers lead the NHL with the least goals allowed per game (2.29). Coincidentally, the Panthers rank third in goals scored per game and the Oilers rank fourth in goals allowed per game.
The teams begin to separate themselves when goaltending and special teams are brought into the equation. The Oilers are clicking at 30 percent on the man advantage, and the Panthers are firing at 23.2 percent. On the penalty kill, the Panthers boast a league-best 87.9 percent success rate, and the Oilers have the third-worst penalty kill, defending just 66.0 percent.
Although Edmonton’s goaltending has improved as the playoffs have gone along, Sergei Bobrovsky is posting a .912 save percentage, and Stuart Skinner is posting a .904 SP.
The Oilers have the two best players in the series, those being reigning Conn Smythe winner Connor McDavid and the NHL’s Maurice “Rocket” Richard winner Leon Draisaitl, and the dynamic duo lead the post-season in points. The Oilers’ depth is producing like they never have before, but no team is deeper than the Panthers. They are led by two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov but are receiving scoring and defensive contributions from their top three lines. Their top nine forwards are all scoring at a 0.70-point per-game pace or better.
Despite the plethora of factors that affect the game, a series is won or lost at 5-on-5. Through three rounds, the Oilers hold an expected goals rate of 54.42 percent at 5-on-5, outscoring their opponents 42-26 and hold the advantage in high-danger chances 187-142, according to Natural Stat Trick. Similarly, the Panthers have been just as dominant. They hold the advantage in expected goals with a rate of 54.96 percent at 5-on-5, outscoring their opponents 47-28 and are winning the high-danger chances battle 155-137.
Last year’s matchup saw the Panthers storm out to a 3-0 series lead before the Oilers clawed back to force a Game 7. The Panthers ultimately prevailed, but the series was incredibly even at 5-on-5. The Panthers held a slight advantage in expected goals (51.26 percent), high-danger chances (48-46) and Corsi For (53.12 percent). The goal scoring was dead even, with each team scoring 14 goals at 5-on-5. But in all situations, the Oilers outscored the Panthers 23-18, although most of the scoring discrepancy could be attributed to Edmonton’s 8-1 victory in Game 4.
The two teams are balanced, and made for post-season hockey. With stars on each team, a long seven-game series would surprise no one.
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