Returning production — whether that’s points, minutes or starts — is bantered about heavily during the summer months, both in basketball and football circles. Fair or not, it has a way of shaping the preseason outlook. With player movement eclipsing all-time highs in college basketball — over 2,500 players entered the transfer portal in the spring — keeping your lynchpins is more paramount than ever in the chase to build sustainable winners.
Purdue, returning nearly 70% of its minutes from a 24-win club, has so clearly won the Retention Wars. The Boilermakers are the only NCAA Tournament team that convinced its three best players (Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer) to run it back for another crack at a title run. UConn, Marquette, Stanford, Notre Dame, Iowa State and SMU join the Fightin’ Matt Painters to form the seven high-majors teams slated to return 50% or more of their minutes from last year. For reference, 32 high-major clubs returned north of 50% of their minutes ahead of the 2019-20 campaign.
With player-movement booming, who you keep and the position they play might matter more than ever because of all the other rosters in flux.
That’s always been transparent on the gridiron. In football, not all returning starters are created equal. Positions like quarterback (duh), edge rusher, left tackle and cornerback are more valuable than others. While retaining a slot receiver or an inside linebacker might count equally as keeping a quarterback or an excellent pass-rusher in that handy “returning starters” graphic, the on-field impact can have staggering differences.
A similar trend may be starting to manifest in basketball.
Twenty-one teams that returned some semblance of continuity at lead guard and big man finished in the top-30 on kenpom.com this past season, including the reigning national champion Florida Gators. This trend did not just start happening, either. 24 of the top-30 teams on kenpom.com in 2024 had continuity at both the lead guard slot and with a big fella. 23 of the 30 in 2023 checked that box, too.
Building a championship-level team is much more straightforward when a stud lead guard like Walter Clayton Jr. is in place in the backcourt and an emerging forward like Alex Condon is already in the fold. It comes in different shapes and sizes, but that continuity at lead guard and at one of the frontcourt spots helped teams like Alabama (Mark Sears and Grant Nelson), Gonzaga (Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike), Saint Mary’s (Augustus Marciulionis and Mitchell Saxen) and Auburn (Denver Jones and Johni Broome) build winners.
Basketball is beautiful because constructing a sustained victor can be done in so many different ways, but those pillars of roster-building hold for a ton of teams. Skilled bigs are everything right now because of the unlocked buttons you’re allowed to press offensively to go along with the obvious defensive boon. It’s downright impossible to build a good defense without an outstanding defensive big man, and building a vroom-vroom offense is so challenging without a difference-making lead guard. Retaining a sharpshooter or an off-ball wing is fine, but some players are role players for a reason and they need advantages created for them to shine. The go-to trigger-men to generate those advantages often tend to be … lead guards or big men.
If you can retain and develop a piece at each of those valuable positions, there’s proof in the pudding that a top-30 finish is in the range of potential outcomes.
It’s a sign that even in the portal era, with more available free agents than ever in the transfer portal and the international market, it’s just hard to build a winner from scratch.
Of course, some outliers aren’t hard to find. Maryland had an excellent two-way big man in Julian Reese in the mix, but it needed four new starters — three from the portal and future lottery pick Derik Queen from the high school ranks — to return to relevance. Duke ditched the continuity route — outside of Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster — and chose to renovate the roster last spring to maximize the one year of Cooper Flagg. You’ll do that every single day of the week and twice on Sundays. Kentucky’s Mark Pope, Michigan’s Dusty May and Louisville’s Pat Kelsey have provided a roadmap for first-year coaches that shows if you have enough resources, you can build an NCAA Tournament club without many familiar faces.
It’s not impossible to win without continuity at lead guard and big man, but it’s a whole lot easier.
Follow the money
Supply and demand is alive and well in basketball, too. Big men, largely boosted due to the value they bring on both ends and the lack of high volume of difference-makers, earned major paydays whether they came from the high school ranks, the portal or the international market. Texas Tech handed All-American JT Toppin a reported $4 million deal to not enter the NBA Draft and return to Lubbock for Year 2. UAB transfer forward Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 1-rated player in the portal, will suit up for Michigan for a hefty deal in the $3 million range.
Dynamic lead guards like UCLA’s Donovan Dent, BYU’s Rob Wright and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson got paid, too. With the salary-cap era here to stay, do not be surprised if teams continue to load up to pay lead guards and two-way big men. The NBA might love the apex wing archetype, but there aren’t a ton of them in the college basketball space right now outside of BYU’s AJ Dybantsa.
Rest assured, the great wings will get paid, but plenty of college basketball budgets are spending the big bucks on lead guards and bigs and filling out the rest of the roster with cheap shooters and willing role players.
Ten takeaways for 2025-26
Oregon strong at top
There’s real consternation about the supporting cast at Oregon, after it missed out on some top wing priorities. But the Ducks retained lead guard Jackson Shelstad, who is one of the best players in the country at his position, and big man Nate Bittle, who is also one of the best players in the country at his position. Those two lynchpins should keep Oregon’s floor extremely high. A top-30 finish is in play.
Wisconsin has weapons to surprise
On paper, Wisconsin doesn’t have a ton of returning minutes. But it kept a stud lead guard in John Blackwell and a hyper-efficient, two-way forward in Nolan Winter. Wisconsin’s rock-solid transfer portal haul would have to flop mightily for the Badgers to fall off a cliff.
San Diego State runs it back
San Diego State seems poised for a big-time season. The Aztecs return over 61% of their minutes, including a future NBA guard (Miles Byrd) and a future NBA big fella (Magoon Gwath). San Diego State finished outside the top-50 on kenpom.com last year with a young team. It’s a safe bet to finish in the top-30 (with an even higher ceiling) in 2025-26.
Familiar faces at Arizona
Arizona didn’t go crazy in the portal, but it retained point guard Jaden Bradley and both of its center options in Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas. That really matters and should insulate five-star freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat who look like Day 1 difference-makers.
Texas Tech returns strong duo
Texas Tech retained only 27% of its minutes. That ranks 38th amongst high-majors. But Grant McCasland kept big man JT Toppin and lead guard Christian Anderson, who could be one of the elite duos in college basketball next year. Texas Tech has the bones of a top-10 club because it’s easier to build a roster when you have two pillars at the most important positions. Every addition that Texas Tech made this offseason was made with Toppin and Anderson in mind. VCU transfer Luke Bamgboye provides the elite rim protection because Toppin is a good, not great, shot-blocker.
Tyeree Bryan and Donovan Atwell are the floor-spacing big guards Texas Tech needed to give space for Toppin and Anderson. Washington State transfer forward LeJuan Watts is that big wing handler who is awesome in post-ups who can fit nicely next to Toppin and Anderson, similarly to the departed Darrion Williams. All the complementary pieces make sense, but only when they are paired next to Anderson and Toppin.
Top scorers back at Illinois State
Illinois State retained lead guard Johnny Kinziger and star big man Chase Walker. The Redbirds are the only Missouri Valley squad to return two double-figure scorers. Usually, the MVC is plucked clean in the portal. There would’ve been a ton of high-major interest in both Kinziger and Walker, but Ryan Pedon retaining them gives Illinois State a chance to pop in 2025-26.
Creighton has big shoes to fill
Creighton has the fourth-most retention in the Big East, but it lost the four players who made it purr: Steven Ashworth, Pop Isaacs, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Jamiya Neal. Creighton kept key role players like sharpshooter Jackson McAndrew and gritty forward Jasen Green, but it lost its anchor defensively and its engines offensively. Creighton will go as far as its newcomers like newcomers Nik Graves, Josh Dix, Owen Freeman, Austin Swartz and Blake Harper take it. It’s a good portal class, on paper, but this will be the first time in a minute that Creighton doesn’t have continuity at lead guard and center which opens the door for some speed bumps.
USC starting over
USC’s roster is so clearly way more talented than last year. It makes sense for Eric Musselman to flip his roster on its head, but it has no continuity anywhere. The Trojans should be much improved defensively thanks to its plus size at all five positions. It should have enough offensive pop with Rodney Rice, Chad Baker-Mazara and five-star Alijah Arenas. Maybe that’s the way Musselman likes it, but there is a scary floor here if it doesn’t coalesce properly. Baylor’s Scott Drew, Florida’s Todd Golden and Illinois’ Brad Underwood are the only guys (not including first-year coaches) who brought in a new lead guard and a new lynchpin big man and still built a top-30 team in the last three years combined. Musselman is trying to join that short list.
Newcomers will help Duke returners
Duke does not have a ton of proven, high-major studs on its roster, but it has continuity at lead guard (Caleb Foster) and big man (Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown). Toss in a future lottery pick like Cam Boozer and projected first-rounders like Nik Khamenia and Dame Sarr, and it’s obvious that Jon Scheyer has more than enough to make another deeeeeep run.
Syracuse set to improve
Syracuse doesn’t have a ton of continuity at other spots, but it has it at lead guard and big man in JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman. It’s time for Syracuse to make a surge. It’s now or never.
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