The Pittsburgh Penguins face their first truly must win game of the season tomorrow night in Philadelphia. If they can do that, they would have another in Pittsburgh on Monday. If they won that, it’d be another must win situation setup for Game 6 in Philadelphia. If somehow they won that too, then there would be a Game 7 back in Pittsburgh.
As we all know the odds of that happening, realistically, are grim right now. Perhaps even non-existent. The Pens have been outplayed in any and every facet over the first three games, and the only time they were leading a game got thrown away due to a post-whistle scrum that quickly put them back behind. The goaltending has been spotty, and certainly much better for the other club. The adjustments made have made little difference. We could go on and on, but you probably get the picture and have already accepted that Pittsburgh’s impressive season is coming to a shockingly ugly end.
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With that dose of reality out of the way, why not dream a little? It’s Friday, there’s no game today and 0-3 comebacks (completed or attempted) are on the rise in hockey. It’s still a fact that the series is almost a foregone conclusion – teams up 3 games to 0 have ended up winning 209 out of 213 times in NHL history in a stat from the Tribune Review, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all the drama has to be over just yet.
No one would know that better than Stuart Skinner. In 2024, the Edmonton Oilers fell down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. Skinner, of course, was the goalie for the Oilers back then. Edmonton won the next three games to force a Game 7. They’d lose 2-1 to come so close to the ‘reverse sweep’ of winning four straight games after falling into a big hole.
“Playoffs are intense,” Skinner said. “There’s a lot of pressure, a lot of noise going on everywhere. I feel like when you go down 3-0, what really helped me in my experience was it kind of just frees you up. You don’t really have anything to lose. And we’re in a spot where we don’t have anything to lose, and they do. If we catch them a couple times — just talking about momentum — you can change momentum, and when that happens, things can go in your favor.”
By the way, Skinner’s performances in Games 4-7 of the ‘24 Stanley Cup Final were outstanding. He only allowed seven goals over the four games (1.76 GAA) and posted a .935 save%, he played some extremely great hockey with his back to the wall, so his words about getting freed from the pressure sound like they worked. It’s not like the first round against the Flyers carries the same burdens of playing for a Canadian team in the SCF where every question is built around if Connor McDavid can ever win ‘his’ Cup, so who knows how much that will change the performance this time around. At this point that sounds like one of the best straws to grasp at that at least the Penguins have a goalie who has been in this exact situation before and handled it extremely well.
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The most recent time for a 0-3 series comeback in the NHL dates back to 2014, when the Los Angeles Kings pulled the trick against the San Jose Sharks in the first round. The Kings would go onto win the Stanley Cup that year. It’s crazy to think how close that was to going out the window in the very opening games of the playoffs, which goes to provide yet another instance of just how thins the margins are in the NHL this time of year between winning and losing.
Back in 2011, there were two close calls: the Sharks almost blew a 3-0 lead against Detroit, but SJ held on and earned a Game 7 victory. In that very same year and round, the then-defending Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks dropped an overtime Game 7 to fall just short of making an 0-3 comeback of their own against Vancouver at the very same time the SJ/DET series was going on.
The year prior, in 2010, Philadelphia was able to overcome a 0-3 deficit to the Boston Bruins in the conference semifinals and advance. There must have been something in the water during that 2010-14 time frame with a couple close calls (Detroit and Chicago in ‘11) and then a pair of successful comebacks (LA in ’14 and Philadelphia in ‘10) all happening in the same period.
For historical completion, the Penguins have been involved in a 0-3 series comeback, albeit on the wrong end. The NY Islanders made the massive comeback in 1975, serving as a sore spot for the franchise for many years, especially considering that ‘75 series made for a recurring trivia note since it was the only time from 1943-2009 that an NHL team blew a 3-0 series lead. The time before that, in 1942, was the Stanley Cup Final where Toronto pulled the comeback against Detroit.
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It sounds daunting to even consider the Penguins joining those groups of teams to make a run. Based on the numbers (209 out of 213) it’s obvious a lot of these series are bound to conclude in four or five games when it gets to this situation. Just call it some Friday morning optimism that just because the vast majority of these instances are foregone conclusions doesn’t necessarily mean it’s unprecedented.
“We have to win a hockey game,” Dan Muse said. “So, we’ll have a practice [Friday], get ready for that game. Then, we’ll go into that game, we need to win a game. And so, that’s entirely where the focus is right now.”
Climbing out of an 0-3 hole is sort of like that old saying about eating an elephant. It has to be done one bite at a time. Game 4 is that first bite. Win that, extend the season and earn the chance to take that next bite in Game 5. It’s easier said than done but the Penguins still have an opportunity available to go down a path that exists for teams to at least make a run at pulling the reverse sweep.
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