No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State: Game preview, picks and best bets – CBS Betting

No. 5 Indiana’s undefeated season survived its first real test when Michigan came to town and gave the Hoosiers a tough game, but Indiana will now be faced with by far its toughest task yet: a matchup with the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

On paper, this is not only one of the best games of the regular season, but one of the best games possible. These are the top two teams in the country by net EPA per play, with Ohio State slightly ahead of Indiana. Similarly, the Buckeyes are second in net success rate while the Hoosiers are third. They check in the second and third spots once more in terms of net yards per play, while Indiana is tops in the country in available yards percentage with Ohio State close behind in fifth.

Note that none of these metrics are opponent-adjusted, making the Buckeyes’ performance thus far all the more impressive as they’ve played a particularly challenging schedule. Through 10 games, they’ve already faced two teams currently in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings: No. 1 Oregon and No. 4 Penn State. Those were both road games, a loss and a win, respectively, so this will be Ohio State’s first time enjoying home-field advantage against a fellow top contender in 2024.

After beating Ohio State, Oregon just kept on rolling; the Ducks are 11-0 and already guaranteed a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. The only question is who will meet them in Indianapolis. Indiana is the only other undefeated team in conference play, and Ohio State holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over fellow one-loss squad Penn State, putting the winner of this game in prime position to take on the Ducks.

Even though Indiana is the undefeated squad in this matchup, it’s ranked lower than Ohio State due in large part to the Buckeyes’ big road win over Penn State. They’re also consensus underdogs in this game with major sportsbooks like FanDuel and Caesars making Ohio State home favorites of nearly two touchdowns.

Here is a look at the odds and a best bet as Indiana looks to complete the upset and secure what would arguably be the biggest win in program history.

Ahead of the Michigan game, the Hoosiers had won each of their first nine contests by at least two touchdowns. They haven’t simply been picking up wins thanks to a friendly schedule; they’ve been dominating. It might not seem like a massive accomplishment, but compared with fellow contenders who have wavered and even lost against lesser opponents — Oregon’s close calls against Boise State and Wisconsin come to mind, as does Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss’ to Kentucky — it shows serious consistency.

The Hoosiers have been completely turned around by head coach Curt Cignetti, who has already guided the program to its first-ever 10-win season just one year after they went 3-9 in the last campaign under Tom Allen. Cignetti has done nothing but win at all levels of the game, with an absurd 129-35 record as a college head coach. He helped take James Madison University from FCS play to the top of the Sun Belt Conference before coming to Bloomington and has pulled off a similar feat by bringing Indiana to the brink of qualification for the expanded College Football Playoff.

Cignetti isn’t the only newcomer helping Indiana make history. Transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke currently leads the Big Ten with a rating of 182.7, and is second in the country in that category amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. With Rourke at the helm, the Hoosiers lead the country in per-play EPA in both overall and passing offense. 

On the other side of the ball, Indiana’s run defense allows just 2.5 yards per carry, which allows it to set up opponents on third-and-long. Ohio State has been one of the four best teams in the country at avoiding such situations, so if it’s put into them consistently, the Buckeyes could become very uncomfortable. 

This will be the Buckeyes’ third game since October 12th against a Big Ten team ranked in the top five with an undefeated record. Compared to past seasons, when much of the regular season schedule has been a breeze, this Ohio State team is seasoned, battle-tested, and ready to go against a red-hot Hoosiers squad.

The question is not whether Ohio State has seen a team like Indiana. Oregon and Penn State have similar pass offense metrics, and there were both positives and negatives to the Buckeyes’ defensive performances in those games. The much greater variable is whether or not Indiana’s offense is sufficiently prepared to see the Ohio State defense. 

Michigan’s defense, by far the best the Hoosiers have faced thus far, is a talented one, but the metrics don’t say that it’s anywhere near as strong as last year’s championship-winning group. Those numbers have been brought down by playing an outrageous slate of offenses already, but Ohio State has seen some great opposition and ranks fifth in defensive EPA per play, due in large part to the nation’s seventh-best success rate against the pass. That could be a problem for Indiana, an offense that has run the ball well but relies much more heavily on Rourke and the air game.

There’s also the fact that the Buckeyes under Ryan Day simply don’t lose much at home, or in the regular season in general, except against two opponents who have had their number. Day’s tenure as head coach started in 2019, and since then, he’s lost just two home games: one each against Michigan and Oregon. 

In total, Day has lost five regular season games as the Ohio State head coach: three against Michigan and two against Oregon. In order to pull off this upset, the Hoosiers will need to break into a very exclusive club.

It’s tough to find a read on the over/under for this game, as both offenses have excelled on a weekly basis but are facing much better defenses than they usually see. Instead, consider playing the spread, as Ohio State’s brand name and win over Penn State are carrying a lot of weight in a matchup between two teams the analytics show to be essentially even. 

Expect the Buckeyes to win; they’re a more experienced group in terms of both players and coaches, and in addition to a bit of a talent edge, they’re also playing at home. However, this line is too broad. The Hoosiers should be able to stick around, much as Penn State did in a competitive loss to the Buckeyes.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Indiana 27