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Buffalo Bills Clinch AFC East with Win and Dolphins Loss
The Bills have the simplest clinching scenario of the teams that can punch their ticket in Week 13. It starts Thursday when the Miami Dolphins travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.
If the Dolphins lose, the Bills will be able to lock up the AFC East for the fifth consecutive year on Sunday night if they can defeat the San Francisco 49ers.
Coming into the season, a 49ers-Bills game felt like a potential Super Bowl preview. Now, though, we don’t even know what the Niners are going to look like at kickoff.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Monday that Brock Purdy, who missed Sunday’s loss to the Packers with a shoulder injury, did some light throwing without any issues. The next step for Purdy will be when the team practices for the first time on Wednesday.
The Niners also played Sunday’s game without Nick Bosa and Trent Williams. They got pushed around by the Packers in a 38-10 defeat. The status for Bosa and Williams in Week 13 will likely be determined later in the week as they go through practice.
Buffalo is cruising with six straight wins coming out of the Week 12 bye. The last time we saw the Bills, they handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season on Nov. 17.
There’s little doubt the Bills are going to win the AFC East. They would have to lose out and Miami would have to win out to not clinch the division title.
Kansas City Chiefs Clinch Playoff Berth Scenarios
- KC win over Raiders AND Dolphins loss/tie
- or KC tie vs. Raiders AND Dolphins loss
- or KC win over Raiders AND Broncos loss
- or KC win over Raiders AND Broncos tie AND Chargers loss
Despite having the best record in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs are still at least another week away from being able to clinch the AFC West because of the surprising performances from the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos this season.
The Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth for the 10th consecutive year as soon as Friday. If the Dolphins lose to the Packers in prime time on Thanksgiving, they will just have to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium on Black Friday.
You can’t rule anything out because the Raiders did pull off an upset in Kansas City last year on Christmas Day in a game that Aidan O’Connell finished 9-of-21 for 62 yards. O’Connell will get the start in Friday’s matchup after Gardner Minshew II suffered a season-ending broken collarbone in a Week 12 loss to the Broncos.
The main reason the Chiefs lost last year was Zamir White ran for 145 yards on 22 carries. He has a total of 183 rushing yards on 65 carries in eight games this season.
There is also a scenario where the Chiefs can clinch even if the Dolphins beat the Packers. They would still have to defeat the Raiders, then hope the Broncos get upset by the Cleveland Browns in Denver on Monday night.
The Browns are coming off a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, so another upset victory can’t be ruled out.
There are other scenarios in which the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth involving ties, but it’s impossible to predict tie games and there’s no reason to think about that unless it happens.
Detroit Lions Clinch Playoff Berth Scenarios
- Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Buccaneers loss/tie
- or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss/tie
- or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie
- or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons loss AND Commanders loss/tie
- or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss
- or Lions win vs. Bears AND 49ers loss/tie AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Falcons tie AND Commanders loss
- or Lions tie vs. Bears AND 49ers loss AND Seahawks tie AND Cardinals loss AND Buccaneers loss AND Packers win (plus additional strength of victory scenarios)
There may not be a practical scenario in which the Lions clinch their playoff spot this week, but it’s not out of the question.
Everything starts on Thanksgiving Day when the Lions host the Chicago Bears. If they win that game, they will be glued to their television sets on Sunday waiting to see the results from several different games.
The simplest scenario for the Lions to become the first NFC team in the playoff field would be three NFC West teams (Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers) and Buccaneers all lose.
Based on the matchups for all four teams this weekend, that’s not an impossibility. The 49ers will almost certainly go into Buffalo as an underdog against the Bills. The Cardinals are playing the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Buccaneers have to play the Carolina Panthers, who suddenly have some positive momentum after playing a close game against the Chiefs on Sunday. The Seahawks travel to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets.
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