Other NFL team previews: 32. Titans | 31. Saints | 30. Browns | 29. Panthers | 28. Jets | 27. Giants | 26. Raiders
The length of time it takes to rebuild in the NFL is regularly overstated. Some teams get stuck with salary cap problems that take years to dig out of, others set themselves back by trading off too much draft capital, but typically NFL teams can turn around their fortunes fast.
Advertisement
The demise of the New England Patriots was real. Tom Brady left. The roster had as little talent as any in the NFL by the time Bill Belichick’s unprecedented run with the Patriots was done. Last season, the Patriots suffered through a 4-13 season with a rookie head coach they obviously regretted hiring. It all seemed dire.
“The last two years have been really, really difficult — the worst two years of our ownership,” Patriots owner Robert Kraft said.
A few months after the season ended and Jerod Mayo was unceremoniously fired, the Patriots might be back. Already. At the very least their situation looks remarkably better.
The Patriots lost faith in Mayo fairly quickly, and the process of firing Mayo — a former star linebacker with New England who was saddled with a bad roster — and then having sham interviews to satisfy the Rooney Rule wasn’t a great look for the team. But they got their preferred target who is a nearly perfect fit. New England landed Mike Vrabel, another former Patriots star who has an NFL Coach of the Year award. It was a fantastic hire. He inherits second-year quarterback Drake Maye, the third overall pick in 2024 who showed plenty of promise late last season.
Advertisement
Then the offseason brought plenty of much-needed talent. They signed contracts with 15 outside free agents, mostly on the defensive side, for a combined total of more than $359 million. The top addition was defensive tackle Milton Williams, who signed for $104 million over four years. The draft, led by offensive tackle Will Campbell at the fourth overall pick, got the best consensus grade among all NFL teams.
The Patriots have a proven head coach, an exciting quarterback and just had the best offseason in the NFL. Their win total at BetMGM is 8.5, which means oddsmakers believe the Patriots could be a .500 team. They’ve won eight games the last two seasons combined. Part of that optimistic win total is a schedule that is projected to be one of the easiest in the NFL this season. A bigger part is spending a ton of money on free-agent upgrades and potentially nailing the draft.
Advertisement
It’s not like the Patriots will be a Super Bowl contender this season. The offensive line is a big question, even if their rookie left tackle plays well. The Patriots’ longstanding ineptitude at drafting receivers means Maye’s supporting cast probably won’t be great. The defensive additions were plentiful, but they all need to fit together. The Patriots had one of the worst defenses in the NFL a season ago, so there’s a long way to go.
But it seems like the miserable fall from grace after the NFL’s greatest dynasty had ended is a lot further in the rear-view mirror than it actually is. It didn’t take long for the Patriots to reinvent themselves.
Offseason grade
The Patriots might have the best free agency haul and the best draft class this offseason. Not bad. In free agency, the Patriots’s top additions were defensive tackle Milton Williams, receiver Stefon Diggs, cornerback Carlton Davis, outside linebacker Harold Landry, linebacker Robert Spillane, offensive tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury. All of them are projected starters. The Patriots’ Week 18 win last season — which the Buffalo Bills seemed to hand to them — cost New England the No. 1 overall pick. However, the Patriots got much-needed offensive line help with Will Campbell at No. 4 overall. They followed that up with running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second round and receiver Kyle Williams in the third. The Patriots completely revamped the roster.
Advertisement
Grade: A
Quarterback report
Josh McDaniels is not NFL head coach material, but he is a very good offensive coordinator. Mike Vrabel picked McDaniels to run his offense, and that’s good news for Drake Maye. Maye had a strong rookie season despite being put in a bad situation. He was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, without many reliable playmakers around him and with a coaching staff that ended up being one and done. Despite those roadblocks Maybe threw for 2,276 yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 starts, completing 66.6% of his passes while also rushing for 421 yards. Maye’s talent was evident (his wild touchdown pass with time expired against the Titans was extremely impressive), even with a mess around him. The supporting cast has questions but it has been significantly upgraded. McDaniels is another key asset in Maye’s development.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Year No. 2 in the Drake Maye era brings renewed hope in New England behind a strong draft and new head coach in Patriots legend Mike Vrabel. New England has a win total of 8.5 at BetMGM, nearly double its win total of 4.5 last season. And in perhaps my favorite betting nugget of the offseason, the Patriots are favored in 11 games this season, after being the only NFL team not to be favored in a single game last season. New England also plays the second-easiest schedule by opposing win totals, so expectations are reasonably higher this year in Foxboro.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Drake Maye somehow kept his head above water in his rookie year despite very little help. Now he’s an interesting breakout candidate entering Year 2.
Advertisement
“New England proactively tried to fix everything that was broken around Maye. The line will be better, the skill players have been upgraded. Josh McDaniels never worked as an NFL head coach but he’s a smart rehire at offensive coordinator. And Maye is resourceful and athletic enough to supplement his passing value with occasional running. Maye currently sits as the QB17 in early Yahoo ADP — that shows some market confidence, but still reasonable room for profit.”
Stat to remember
The Patriots haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver this decade. The last one was Julian Edelman in 2019. In fact, no Patriots receiver has gone over 866 yards since then. Last season, tight end Hunter Henry led the team with just 674 receiving yards.
Will the newly signed Stefon Diggs become the Patriots’ first 1,000-yard receiver in more than a decade? New England is hoping so. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
This is what happens when you whiff on just about every draft pick and free agent addition at receiver over many years. Even last year’s picks of Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round and Javon Baker in the fourth seem like wastes after the two combined for 99 yards last season. Even worse, the Patriots traded down with the Chargers in the second round last year, and they took Polk while the Chargers picked instant star Ladd McConkey with New England’s pick. Stefon Diggs was signed, but he’s 31 years old coming off a torn ACL and had shown signs of decline before the injury. Maybe rookie Kyle Williams will be a hit. Many draft analysts liked Williams, a third-round pick who has high-end speed and made many plays at Washington State. Overall, the Patriots didn’t succeed in finding a true No. 1 receiver, unless you buy that Diggs will find a fountain of youth. Maye won’t fully blossom until the Patriots get him some blue-chip receivers, and we’ll see if that’s still an issue going into next offseason.
Burning question
How much better will the defense be?
The Patriots weren’t very good on defense last season. Mike Vrabel made sure there were some reinforcements. The Patriots signed defensive tackle Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis, edge rusher Harold Landry and linebacker Robert Spillane to contracts that total $234.5 million. There was some talent already on the defense, like cornerback Christian Gonzalez, linebacker Christian Elliss and safeties Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger. Suddenly the talent level doesn’t seem like an issue anymore.
Advertisement
Vrabel is a good defensive mind and he should have a positive impact. The Patriots weren’t good on defense last season (they were 30th in DVOA) so expecting a leap into the top 10 might be asking a lot. It also doesn’t seem like a defense with so much talent and Vrabel helping run it will finish in the bottom 10.
Best-case scenario
The Patriots get a break with their schedule this season. Using opponents’ projected win totals to project schedule strength, New England has the second easiest schedule in the NFL via Sharp Football Analysis. Maybe that helps New England get in playoff contention. Plenty of things have to go right. The defense has to mesh. The offensive line has to be much better. The running back tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson could be very productive, and maybe Drake Maye elevates a passing game that has some interesting pieces at receiver but plenty of concerns, too. Mike Vrabel usually got the most out of his teams when he was the Titans head coach, which should transfer to the Patriots. Between Vrabel, Maye, some good running backs, major improvements on defense and a weak schedule, you can see a path for the Patriots to be a playoff contender. Given how bad New England was the last two seasons, that would be a great start to Vrabel’s tenure.
Nightmare scenario
Plenty of teams have great offseasons and it doesn’t result in a great record. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel understands that.
Advertisement
“We won March. Amazing. Which is something that’s comical,” Vrabel said. “We’re never trying to just win March, we’re trying to be ready when the season goes, and it’s a long process.”
The Patriots added 10 players this offseason who are projected starters, according to Ourlads.com’s depth charts. That doesn’t count running back TreVeyon Henderson, who will have a big role. An overhaul was needed and it looks good on paper, but that’s a lot of change in one offseason. It’s normal to look at a team that added many new players and envision everyone fitting together perfectly. How often does that happen? For example, Milton Williams had great stretches of play with the Eagles, but now he’ll need to play more snaps and he won’t be alongside a dominant player like Jalen Carter anymore. And while Drake Maye looks like the real deal, he has just 12 NFL starts. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots will be as bad as last season, but if the improvement is only a win or two it would be a disappointment.
The crystal ball says
The Patriots might be way too low in these rankings. Maybe the oddsmakers are right and New England has a huge improvement. There’s just a lot of change to account for, and the Patriots have been miserable for two straight seasons. Mike Vrabel is a very good coach and most of the players the Patriots brought in are big upgrades. Still, it’s hard to predict any team to more than double its win total from the season before. No matter how many wins the Patriots get, this will be a growth season. Vrabel will start establishing a culture. Drake Maye will continue to emerge as a franchise quarterback. The product on the field will look completely different after adding many impact players. The rebuild is practically over already; New England can move on to figuring out how to get back to AFC East dominance.
Read the full article here
