Other NFL team previews: 32. Dolphins | 31. Jets | 30. Cardinals | 29. Browns | 28. Titans | 27. Raiders | 26. Falcons | 25. Giants | 24. Saints
The New Orleans Saints looked like they might bottom out last season. Even their big moves in the offseason seemed like they were settling for leftovers.
Advertisement
The Saints were the last team to fill their coaching vacancy, hiring Kellen Moore. Part of that was waiting until Moore guided the Eagles’ offense through the Super Bowl, but other candidates like Joe Brady, Kliff Kingsbury, Aaron Glenn and Mike McCarthy had already backed out. There were many bad situations among the coaching vacancies last offseason, and the Saints’ situation was arguably the worst. They had a roster with practically no young blue-chip talent other than receiver Chris Olave, no quarterback and the salary cap was a mess.
Some analysts really liked quarterback Tyler Shough before the 2025 NFL Draft, but if he was that clean of a prospect he wouldn’t have been available to the Saints at 40th overall. And if the Saints truly thought he was a franchise quarterback, they would have drafted him at ninth overall instead of offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr. Other teams with a dire need at quarterback passed on Shough. Injuries, age (Shough was 26 years old as a rookie) and only one full season of college starts pushed him down. The Saints took a shot in the second round, even though most quarterbacks picked outside the second round don’t work out. In the 10 drafts before Shough was picked, there was only one second-round QB success story (Jalen Hurts) and the rest were busts (Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer, Drew Lock, Kyle Trask, Will Levis).
And the 2025 Saints season started predictably bad. Shough couldn’t beat Spencer Rattler in the preseason and the Saints didn’t make a QB change until November even though they lost seven of Rattler’s eight starts. Shough lost his first start too, and New Orleans was 1-8. At that point, five of their previous six losses were by double digits.
We don’t remember that about the Saints as they head into this season. That’s because the Saints had an out-of-nowhere turnaround in the second half that changed the franchise’s entire outlook.
Advertisement
Coaches of 1-8 teams can lose the team in the second half, but the Saints continued to play hard for Moore. That was a great sign for a rookie head coach. Shough finished second in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting despite starting just nine games. He was a revelation for most of the second half, allowing the Saints to have no concerns about what to do at quarterback this offseason. Shough proved he should be the quarterback in 2026 and it looks like he could hold the job far beyond this season too. The Saints went 5-3 down the stretch with wins at the Panthers and Buccaneers, who would finish in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South. The Saints were the only team to not finish 8-9 in the division, but they were the NFC South’s best team in the second half of the season.
Two good months is all it took for the Saints to go from looking hopeless to envisioning a bright future, behind a coach who was the last pick in that hiring cycle and a quarterback who was drafted at a spot so many others had zero success.
“Like so many players on our team, [Shough] just got better each and every week,” Moore said after the season, via the team’s site.
The job isn’t done. Moore and Shough will have to show they are capable long-term solutions and didn’t just catch a heater for a half season against a soft schedule. The roster still has plenty of issues; it was never going to be a one-offseason rebuild. But the Saints hope they have the two most important pieces in place, and finally have some salary cap flexibility for 2027 as well.
Advertisement
At the end of October last season, the Saints being optimistic about the future by this summer seemed like an impossible dream. That changed fast.
The Saints appear to have found something in the duo of head coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Tyler Shough.
(Derick E. Hingle via Getty Images)
Offseason grade
The Saints finally got their salary cap in order. The many years of having to scramble just to get under the cap — then immediately spending recklessly with cap hits being pushed out to the future — should be done in 2027. This offseason the Saints cut back on void years, which backloads contracts and creates future cap issues. The Saints are near the middle of the league in projected 2027 cap space, and it has been a while since that was the case.
Advertisement
It’s not like the Saints sat out free agency, either. They made three big signings: guard David Edwards, running back Travis Etienne Jr. and linebacker Kaden Elliss. All three got at least $11 million per season. Cornerback Alontae Taylor and linebacker Demario Davis left for big paydays, so there were some losses too. The draft brought an exciting prospect, as the Saints took Jordyn Tyson eighth overall. If the oft-injured Tyson can stay healthy he could be the best receiver in the class. It’s risky but with a high reward. This was a productive, yet responsible, offseason.
Grade: B+
Quarterback report
Tyler Shough being in the mix to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year was impressive considering everyone else had a half-season head start. Shough got five first-place votes. Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall draft pick who started all season, didn’t get any first-place votes and didn’t finish in the top five of the final voting. As good as Shough was, he’ll need to prove himself over a full season.
Advertisement
He caught an easy part of the Saints’ schedule. Of his nine starts, he faced just three defenses ranked in the top half of the NFL in DVOA (Falcons twice, Rams). The Saints didn’t play well against those defenses. They were 0-3 in those games, averaging 12.3 points per game. They were 5-1 against the bad defenses in Shough’s starts, averaging 23 points per game. Also, one of the reasons teams in all sports downgrade older rookies is the notion that they’ve already maxed out. Shough will turn 27 years old this season. Is there another level coming for Shough, or did he look good as a rookie because he was already advanced more than someone like a 23-year-old Ward?
Regardless, the Saints have to be pleased. Shough played as well as could be expected as a rookie, allowing New Orleans to not worry about the QB position this offseason. Perhaps they’ll see Shough has already plateaued and have to wonder what to do in 2027, but they could also find that they got a great long-term deal on Shough in the second round last year.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Rookie QB Tyler Shough offered hope for the future last season, and while the Saints ended up with a 6-11 record, they were above-.500 against the number (9-8 ATS). With a good offensive line, and improvements among the offensive skill positions (drafting WR Jordyn Tyson and signing RB Travis Etienne), there is optimism in New Orleans. The Saints have a win total of 7.5 and are +280 (second-best odds) to win the NFC South. Despite being favorites in only five games, the Saints have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL by opposing season win totals. New Orleans is a touchdown-or-more underdog in its first two games (at Lions, at Ravens), so a slow start could be inevitable.”
Advertisement
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Juwan Johnson looks like a screaming value in early draft season. Although he finished as the TE10 last year, the market currently slots him as the TE19 in Yahoo leagues. The Saints’ receiver room is still suspect after Chris Olave, and QB Tyler Shough played better than expected as a rookie. Johnson has a decent shot at 100-plus targets again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he led the Saints in touchdown catches.”
Stat to remember
The Saints weren’t very good on offense for the entirety of the season. They were 27th in offensive DVOA. Special teams were 31st in DVOA. It was the Saints’ defense that stood out. New Orleans’ defense was 13th in DVOA, 10th in EPA (expected points added) per play and eighth in success rate. The Saints did so without a Pro Bowl player and only one player who finished above 20th at their position in Pro Football Focus’ grades. Linebacker Demario Davis was fifth in PFF’s grades and he left in free agency, replaced by Kaden Elliss, who is coming off a good season with the Falcons and is seven years younger than the 37-year-old Davis.
Advertisement
The Saints’ surprising defensive season reflects well on coordinator Brandon Staley. Staley didn’t work out as Los Angeles Chargers head coach but he has done well as a coordinator. He has been a coordinator twice (for the 2020 Rams and 2025 Saints) and those defenses finished first and ninth in yards allowed. The Saints took hits on defense this offseason, losing Davis and top cornerback Alontae Taylor, while mostly investing in the offense. Perhaps Staley can have that group overachieve again.
Burning question
How good can the Saints’ receiving duo be?
Chris Olave had a very good season without much help to take defensive attention away from him. He had 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. No other Saints wideout reached 500 yards (Rashid Shaheed would have but he was traded in midseason). Tight end Juwan Johnson had a breakout with 889 yards, but Olave still needed a running mate on the outside for the offense to fully click. That’s why the Saints used the eighth overall pick on Jordyn Tyson.
Advertisement
Tyson has good size with big-play ability. Tyson had 1,812 yards and 18 touchdowns his final two college seasons, and it would have been even better if he had been able to stay healthy. Health was the question for Tyson coming into the draft. It says something about his talent that he was a top-10 pick despite an injury history that includes a torn ACL, broken collarbone and hamstring issues. Olave has health issues as well. He said he contemplated retirement after the 2024 season in which he suffered multiple concussions. He has four documented concussions in his career. He stayed mostly healthy last season, playing in 16 games, but that part of his story isn’t completely in the past yet.
If Olave and Tyson stay healthy, they could get 2,000 combined yards. Both are dynamic, versatile players. Tyson has the upside to be an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Health permitting, this duo could be one of the best in the NFL right away.
Best-case scenario
The Saints could be a playoff team this season. Of course that comes with an asterisk, because they play in the NFC South and 8-9 could win the division again. Still, the Saints ended last season playing the best of any team in the division, and that could carry over. Tyler Shough has more help on offense, which will help him avoid a sophomore slump. The defense, coordinated by Brandon Staley, was surprisingly good last season. There could be a step back, but it’s not like the other NFC South defenses are spectacular. Kellen Moore looks like the right fit at head coach, Shough’s rookie year was promising, and the Saints enter this season with optimism. Winning the NFC South, no matter the final record, would validate all the progress from last season.
Advertisement
Nightmare scenario
The Saints played one team that finished last season with a winning record in Tyler Shough’s starts. They lost that game 34-10 to the Los Angeles Rams. Last season the Saints were 0-6 against teams that finished in the top 16 of Jeff Sagarin’s ratings. The Saints get an easy schedule again, thanks mostly to being in the NFC South. But it’s possible the Saints’ level is closer to that 1-8 start than the 5-4 finish. Shough, and even Kellen Moore, need to prove they can sustain success. New Orleans’ defense, which isn’t elite in terms of personnel, could step back. The team’s offense is depending heavily on a quarterback with nine career starts and two receivers with troublesome injury histories. This looked like a multi-year rebuild heading into last season and that hasn’t changed. The Saints have added some young talent but they still have work to do. It would be disappointing to find out they’re a lot further away than they thought, and that the second half of last season was just false hope after beating some bad teams.
The crystal ball says
Kellen Moore could have easily lost the Saints in the second half last season. He was a rookie head coach, with a team that was told it wouldn’t be very good and had a 1-8 record on Halloween. Simply having the Saints compete hard in the second half, with practically nothing to play for, said a lot about Moore as a coach. He looks like a keeper. I was critical of the Tyler Shough pick last year, mostly because of the history of second-round quarterbacks and Shough’s age, but he passed the eye test. The Saints get the second-easiest projected schedule this season, via SharpFootballAnalysis.com, so even if they were easy schedule merchants late last season, that won’t change much this season. The Saints finish the season at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18. It shouldn’t be a surprise if that game decides the NFC South title.
Read the full article here
