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Kyle Shanahan was asked in May what he wanted to get out of the San Francisco 49ers’ offseason program.
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“To not get anyone hurt and find any way to get better with everything we do,” Shanahan said, via the team’s site.
Note the order of those two items. He probably could have stopped after the first five words.
The 49ers will look back on this past season with a weird mix of pride and unfulfilled possibilities. The 49ers went 12-5, which was practically a miracle given all their injuries. Shanahan should have been NFL Coach of the Year for that effort, but that award rarely goes to the best coach. It was remarkable for Shanahan, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh (who is onto the Titans as their head coach) and the veteran players who were available on any certain week to drag the 49ers to the playoffs. They also beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round despite yet another major injury, as tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles. Given the injuries, it was a strong season. The 49ers will also wonder what might have been given just a little more injury luck. Kittle, Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and rookie first-round pick Mykel Williams all missed significant time.
There was a reason a conspiracy theory took hold about the 49ers suffering more injuries due to an electrical substation near the practice facility, and why the team actually looked into it. That was a lot of key injuries to deal with in one season. And they also had major injury issues the season before.
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One reason the 49ers might look back at last season with some sadness is this group still hasn’t won a Super Bowl, and it’s not like their core is getting younger. There were near misses at the end of the 2019 and 2023 seasons, when the 49ers blew a pair of fourth quarter leads in a Super Bowl. In the latter Super Bowl, against the Chiefs, the 49ers held leads in the final two minutes of regulation and also to start overtime, and lost. Key stars like Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, offensive tackle Trent Williams and running back Christian McCaffrey are now in their 30s. There’s an upcoming salary cap crunch, due in large part to Purdy’s five-year, $265 million deal. The young depth of the 49ers isn’t great either due to some poor drafting in recent years.
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The 49ers come back this season looking to squeeze one more big season from this core, hoping for some well-earned injury luck. There’s still plenty of talent, though that depends in part on how well players like Kittle and Bosa return from season-ending injuries. The offense will always be productive with Shanahan calling it, and it adds longtime Buccaneers star receiver Mike Evans. The defense badly missed Bosa and Warner, and they are back, along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw starting his second 49ers tour and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa coming from Dallas in a trade.
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The 49ers still play in a very tough NFC West and have one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, which is generally a bug and not a feature. But a team that won 12 games despite patching things together at multiple positions from the first few weeks of the season through the playoffs has hope. Just don’t get anyone hurt this time.
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan guided his team to 12 wins despite numerous injuries. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Offseason grade
The 49ers’ big move was adding receiver Mike Evans on a three-year, $42 million deal, which is an intriguing move that could go either way. Evans is 32 and coming off the first season in his career in which he didn’t reach 1,000 yards, mostly because of injuries. But he’s a future Hall of Famer and seems to be a perfect fit for what the 49ers needed and also Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The other big move was a trade for defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, as San Francisco sent a third-round pick to the Cowboys. Odighizuwa was a year removed from signing a four-year, $80 million with Dallas and is a strong interior defender. Other free agency additions included offensive tackle Vederian Lowe, cornerback Nate Hobbs, receiver Christian Kirk and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who is back in San Francisco after he had a rough year with the Broncos. The 49ers did lose receivers Kendrick Bourne and Jauan Jennings in free agency and will eventually move on from Brandon Aiyuk after one of the strangest sagas in recent memory, but they should be able to replace them.
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The draft was panned. The 49ers didn’t have a first-round pick after trading down twice, and shocked many by picking receiver De’Zhaun Stribling to start the second round, then again when they took running back Kaelon Black. The 49ers often go against the grain in the draft, and this time it sparked a debate about consensus boards. The unconventional approach is a reason the 49ers’ combined draft grade among experts ranked 30th. The 49ers did well to add a difference-making player on each side of the ball, though Evans will have to prove he’s still in his prime after a down season.
Grade: C+
Quarterback report
There will always be a debate about whether Brock Purdy could thrive in any system or if he’s a product of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. It doesn’t matter much, because he’s in San Francisco for the long haul and is a great fit with Shanahan. Last season, despite missing time with a turf toe injury and a sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder, Purdy was remarkably efficient. He was third among NFL quarterbacks in adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play and first in success rate. That was despite not only rushing back from his own injuries, but plenty of injuries around him on offense. Purdy’s production is impossible to argue with.
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The 49ers also got a great contribution from backup Mac Jones last season. They went 5-3 in Jones’ starts, including a win at the Rams. The 49ers were willing to trade Jones this offseason and Shanahan said after the first day of the NFL Draft that it “really surprised me that no one came and offered something.” The 49ers would have preferred to cash in on Jones’ value in a quarterback-needy environment, but they will enter the season with a strong 1-2 combination at the position.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Despite a multitude of injuries, including starting QB Brock Purdy, the 49ers’ offense finished second in DVOA last season. The issue? A defense that ranked 27th in DVOA. Still, on the heels of the easiest schedule by opponent season win totals of any NFL team, the 49ers racked up 12 wins. San Francisco is still favored in 11 games this season and has the eighth-easiest strength of schedule, but also happens to reside in arguably the toughest division in the league in the NFC West. The additions of Mike Evans and Christian Kirk should help an explosive offense, and a healthier D should also be better than last season. A big unknown: How will San Francisco react to playing in the NFL’s first-ever Australia game in Week 1? The 49ers have three straight games after that at home, but it’s still an unprecedented amount of travel.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Brock Purdy was headed for a monster year last season, screened by injury. If you map out his nine starts to a full season, we’re looking at 4,093 passing yards and 37 touchdown passes. He was fifth in QB points per start, and this offense looks loaded again this year, especially if WR Mike Evans has something left in the tank. The depth of the QB pool makes a lot of later picks look appealing, but put a star next to Purdy’s current QB14 price. It’s a great year to be patient at this position.”
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Stat to remember
Christian McCaffrey’s final numbers last season were befitting of one of the best running backs of this (or any) era: 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. But how he got there was a bit different than usual. He had a league-high 413 touches and had what might have been the most inefficient season of his career. His 5.1 yards per touch was the second-worst of his career. The worst was 4.9 in 2020 when he played only three games. His yards per touch has gone down from 6.0 in 2023 to 5.4 in 2024 to 5.1 last season. His 3.9 yards per carry was his worst mark since that injury-shortened 2020 season. His only other season under 4 yards per carry was his rookie season. He had only three 20-yard runs on 311 rushing attempts.
McCaffrey’s durability was remarkable as he came off an injury-plagued 2024. In an injury-filled season for the 49ers, McCaffrey was the one constant. But the dip in efficiency is concerning because McCaffrey is 30 years old and has had 2,284 regular-season touches in his career. The 49ers don’t really have a proven backup behind McCaffrey. Kyle Shanahan said last season was “the worst we’ve been” at getting McCaffrey rest, and while he praised McCaffrey’s toughness, he said he wants to lessen his running back’s workload.
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“I want him to have more juice. I want him too be more fresher,” Shanahan said on “The Tom Tolbert Show.” “He doesn’t have to take that beating when it’s unnecessary. I’m hoping we can have some other guys step up more this year so you don’t feel like you need him on the field every play.”
Burning question
Are the 49ers drafting the right way?
The 49ers made draft picks that went against the many big boards that draft experts come up with, which brought criticism of their class. But it’s also not new. The 49ers have a different draft approach than almost any other team.
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“We’ve got consensus in this building,” 49ers general manager John Lynch said. “That’s the consensus I care about.”
The problem is, the 49ers’ process has led to some big misses. They had an 11-man draft class last season and nobody emerged as a full-time starter as a rookie. Starting in 2020, the 49ers’ draftees have combined for two Pro Bowls, one from Brock Purdy and other from safety Talanoa Hufanga, who is now with the Broncos. Drafting Purdy helped everyone forget Trey Lance, one of the NFL’s worst picks of the past decade. Missing so many picks is a reason the defense cratered last season without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, finishing 27th in DVOA and 30th in success rate allowed per play. The 49ers’ lack of depth on defense is due in large part to those draft whiffs.
If you follow consensus rankings, the 49ers reached on picks like receiver De’Zhaun Stribling and running back Kaelon Black in this class. They believe in their process. But it needs to produce some better results.
Best-case scenario
Let’s imagine a healthy 49ers season, which has become rare. They’re due for one. If the 49ers are mostly healthy, they might be as good as any team in the NFL. Brock Purdy orchestrates the offense at a high level. Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans and Trent Williams are all lock Hall of Famers on the offense and George Kittle might be as well. The defense should be better with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner back, though losing coordinator Robert Saleh hurts. It’s hard to pick the 49ers to win the NFC West, but it’s not impossible. They had road wins against the Rams and Seahawks last season. Kyle Shanahan is one of the NFL’s best coaches and there’s some elite talent on the roster. Another trip to the Super Bowl isn’t too crazy of a goal, though it will take some good fortune, particularly with injuries.
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Nightmare scenario
The NFL moves more quickly than anybody would like, and headlining players can suddenly fade. Trent Williams is one of the best offensive tackles ever, Christian McCaffrey is probably underrated in terms of his ranking among all-time running backs, Mike Evans will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and George Kittle is a great tight end. They’re also all in their 30s and at some point they’ll hit the age wall. There’s also no guarantee Nick Bosa and Fred Warner don’t lose a step after big injuries last season, and the 49ers’ defense was poor without them. Kyle Shanahan will always keep the 49ers’ floor high, but they also were 6-11 two seasons ago. In a tough division, another season under .500 with pressing concerns about rapidly aging stars is within the possible outcomes.
The crystal ball says
In another division, the 49ers’ outlook might be different. This is no surprise, but it will be a while before we see the Rams and Seahawks appear on this countdown. San Francisco is a very good team in a division with two great teams. That’s tough. The 49ers should be optimistic about what might happen with a healthy season, but realistically they’re probably stuck in third place in the NFC West. San Francisco will have another good record and will likely get a wild-card spot again, but the dream of winning a Super Bowl with this group will seem a little further away by the end of this season.
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