The NCAA Tournament bracket can be analyzed endlessly, picked by the best experts around and even ranked against other tournament brackets. But what if we were break down the bracket to see how these teams really stack up against each other, only looking at each the seeds for the strongest team in the field?
The selection committee has already made its opinion clear with its 1-68 seed list, but there are a few spots where the seed list doesn’t really equate to “best team” as we get set for the start of the tournament. Matt Norlander also offered his 1-68 ranking, but today we’re only looking at the sorting the groups by seed. In terms of grading standard, consider this a blend of traditional ranking tools — predictive and resume metrics — with ability to advance to the bracket and current form. It’s the ultimate “who ya got?” 16 times over to get another read on the field and how the teams stack up against each other.
This is another way for us to look at how the field was dispersed between the regions in the bracket as well. According to our analysis, the West Region has the most power-per-seed-line with a representative selected along six of the 16 seed lines. That’s not great news for No. 1 seed Florida, who could face as many as three of those teams depending on how the bracket plays out. Meanwhile, No. 1 overall seed Auburn faces a South Region bracket that had just two teams selected as the best on their seed line, though it should be noted the Tigers were not one of them. The East Region and Midwest Region, for those counting at home, had four teams selected teach.
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Let’s have a look at our picks for the best team on each seed line in the 2025 NCAA Tournament
No. 16 seeds
Norfolk State | SIU-Edwardsville | American | Mount St. Mary’s | Alabama State | Saint Francis
Top Team — Norfolk State, West Region: Norfolk State and South Carolina State were the class of the MEAC this year and had a real iron sharpens iron relationship. First Norfolk State won by two points in overtime at home, then South Carolina State got revenge with a three-point win in its house only for Robert Jones’ Spartans to win the rubber match 66-65 in the conference tournament final. This is a program that’s won 24-plus games in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history, and a team that will challenge Florida’s readiness in the opening round.
No. 15 seeds
Robert Morris | Wofford | Omaha | Bryant
Top team — Robert Morris, East Region: Andrew Toole has Robert Morris back in the tournament but for the first time since joining the Horizon League as the Colonials look to continue one of the most successful seasons in program history. Robert Morris went 15-5 in conference play with the league’s best defense and a star with sophomore center Alvaro Folgueiras nearly averaging a double-double at 14.1 PPG and 9.1 RPG. Robert Morris didn’t challenge itself in nonconference play like Wofford or Omaha, but its high win count doesn’t seem too inflated given the consistency of performance across a run that has seen the team go 16-1 across its last 17 games.
No. 14 seeds
Lipscomb | Troy | UNCW | Montana
Top team — UNC Wilmington, West Region: The Seahawks rode the CAA’s most productive offense (79.4 PPG) to a top-two finish in the league standings and a conference tournament title run capped back by back-to-back thrillers against Charleston and Delaware. UNCW is peaking at the right time, carrying a 15-2 record since Jan. 15, and star guard Donovan Newby totaled 41 points across the semifinals and finals of the CAA Tournament. Lipscomb and Troy were more highly rated by the committee, but I’ll take the Seahawks and their recent form to close the gap in the metrics.
No. 13 seeds
Yale | High Point | Akron | Grand Canyon
Top team — Yale, South Region: James Jones and the Bulldogs are back for more after taking out Auburn in the First Round last year as a No. 13 seed, and this time they are coming off their highest-scoring season in program history averaging 81.7 points per game. Yale rebounds at a high level and showed its caliber against power conference foes in the nonconference schedule by hanging inside of 10 against Purdue in Mackey Arena. Yale also defeated Akron, another 13-seed here, by 16 points back in December and carries a notable advantage over Akron and Grand Canyon in the predictive metrics.
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No. 12 seeds
UC San Diego | Colorado State | McNeese | Liberty
Top team — Colorado State, West Region: The Rams rate higher than some 11-seeds in the field, so it was surprising to see Colorado State not only knocked down here to the 12-line but not even ranked by the selection committee as the top No. 12 seed. UC San Diego has the nation’s longest active win streak at 15 games and were one of the most profitable teams in the country in terms of covering the spread, but we’re lining up with a more battle-tested Colorado State team that has three wins against NCAA Tournament teams since the start of February.
No. 11 seeds
Texas | Xavier | San Diego State | Drake | VCU | North Carolina
Top team — VCU, East Region: Again we have a one-two punch of head-scratching decisions from the committee when it comes to VCU; the Rams rate as a top-30 team in predictive metrics but land at No. 45 on the selection committee’s rankings. So not only is VCU seeded low at 11, but the Rams aren’t even the top 11-seed! Ryan Odom’s squad may not have stacked handfuls of Quad 1 wins on their Atlantic 10 schedule, but the class and consistency of their play shone through on a week-to-week basis en route to 28 wins, a share of the regular season A10 title and the conference tournament crown.
No. 10 seeds
Arkansas | New Mexico | Vanderbilt | Utah State
Top team — Arkansas, West Region: This was a really tough one to parse as all four teams are fairly close in both the predictive and resume rankings. Ultimately, we landed with the same decision as the selection committee with Arkansas as the top No. 10 seed, and the tiebreaker went to judging the Razorbacks by what they can do when they are at their healthiest and playing the best. John Calipari’s team has a ceiling that it did not hit with regularity but did so enough to think they are the most likely team to string not just one but multiple wins together in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
No. 9 seeds
Creighton | Georgia | Baylor | Oklahoma
Top team — Georgia, Midwest Region: Mike White has the Bulldogs back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015, and while the Bulldogs have a challenging opening-round opponent (Gonzaga), I don’t think it’s crazy to think this group could log the program’s first NCAA Tournament win since 2002. Asa Newell had a freshman campaign worthy of being included with the best rookies in the country, and while the SEC schedule provided plenty of bumps along the way, this was a group that got off to a 14-2 start with wins against St. John’s, Kentucky and Oklahoma, among others.
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No. 8 seeds
Louisville | Gonzaga | UConn | Mississippi State
Top team — Gonzaga, Midwest Region: I think you could argue the 8-seeds are a more impressive in total than the 7-seeds, which is a nightmare for all the 1-seeds in this tournament. It’s also notable that the draw for Houston has what we are calling the best 8-seed facing off against the best 9-seed, which might suggest that maybe these teams could have been in other spots in the bracket. As for Gonzaga, this is a team that rates out in the top 10-15 of most predictive metrics and power rankings but dropped down to the 8-line because of how the committee viewed its resume. Since resumes are incapable of getting buckets, we’ll go with the high ceiling of a team that might not be up to the Mark Few standard in a few areas but can certainly make yet another run to the Sweet 16.
No. 7 seeds
UCLA | Marquette | Saint Mary’s | Kansas
Top team — Saint Mary’s, East Region: If it seems we have a little bit of West Coast Conference bias with the analysis it might be coming a response to the way the selection committee ranked both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. But what gives the Gaels a leg up here is not just strong predictive metrics but also the way Saint Mary’s got consistent results against all kinds of opponents. Saint Mary’s went 28-5 with no losses coming by a margin of greater than seven points, and Augustas Marciulionis remains a constant; he led the team in scoring and won WCC Player of the Year for a second straight season.
No. 6 seeds
BYU | Illinois | Missouri | Ole Miss
Top team — Illinois, Midwest Region: This is a great collection of teams with different profiles but all with the potential to wind up exceeding seed line expectations by crashing the Sweet 16. The slight edge went to Illinois based on what the Fighting Illini look like when they aren’t battling multiple viruses, and that’s one of the best teams in the Big Ten. Illinois closed the regular season throwing some absolute haymakers at Michigan and Purdue, and early season wins against Arkansas, Wisconsin, Missouri and Oregon showed their ceiling before the team’s midseason slump. If the 3s are falling for Illinois, this isn’t just a team that can make the Sweet 16 but maybe push even deeper in the tournament.
No. 5 seeds
Michigan | Clemson | Oregon | Memphis
Top team — Michigan, South Region: The Big Ten Tournament champions were grossly under-seeded; placing the Wolverines down here on the 5-line is focusing way more on the three-game losing streak to close the regular season and not the three-straight wins against top-four seeds en route to cutting down nets in Indianapolis. Michigan beat fellow 5-seed Oregon in the regular season and went 4-0 combined against Purdue and Wisconsin, who each rank higher in the selection committee rankings. This is a team much closer to the caliber of those Big Ten foes and a clear step ahead of the rest of this group of No. 5 seeds.
No. 4 seeds
Texas A&M | Purdue | Maryland | Arizona
Top team — Maryland, West Region: On a seed line filled with teams that have flaws, Maryland stands out with high-level play on both ends of the floor and one of the best starting fives in the sport. The Terps may have depth concerns, sure, but compared to Texas A&M’s shooting woes, Purdue’s late-season defensive slide and Arizona’s inconsistencies through the year it’s an easy choice here that does not at all line up with how the committee ranked these teams. While other teams might be put on upset alert early, the expectation for Maryland is to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016.
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No. 3 seeds
Texas Tech | Iowa State | Kentucky | Wisconsin
Top team — Texas Tech, West Region: We are really splitting hairs here between some solid choices on the No. 3 seed line, and if we’re going to knock others for injuries or recency bias, it should be noted that both Big 12 teams here have been dealing with nagging issues recently. Iowa State has some finality, it seems, as Keshon Gilbert is done for the season while Texas Tech will be hoping for the best with its oft-injured pair of Chance McMillan and Darrion Williams. What had us aligning with the Red Raiders, though, was the star power of JT Toppin, the collective experience of the group and the tournament-style toughness they put on full display in an overtime win on the road at Houston earlier this season.
No. 2 seeds
Tennessee | Alabama | Michigan State | St. John’s
Top team — Tennessee, Midwest Region: We’re in agreement with the selection committee here picking Tennessee as the top 2-seed, and if the Vols had won the SEC Tournament title, there would have been an argument to bump them up to the top line. As it stands, the Vols still have a great chance to make the Final Four thanks to a top-five defense and the one-two offensive punch they get from Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier. This was not an easy decision, though, as Michigan State has a great argument to jump in line thanks to its frontcourt depth and the continued rising star of Jase Richardson, but we’ll stick with what seems to be more like a “1.5-seed” in Tennessee.
No. 1 seeds
Auburn | Duke | Houston | Florida
Top team — Duke, East Region: The Blue Devils may not be the No. 1 overall seed, but they are the No. 1 team in the predictive metrics, the oddsmakers favorite to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament and the only team other than Drake with just three losses on the season, all coming by six points or less away from home. The fact that Cooper Flagg went down with an ankle injury and the Blue Devils were still able to defeat two NCAA Tournament teams on the way to winning the ACC Tournament title shows a level of team talent that’s unmatched in the sport this season. Auburn rightfully earned No. 1 overall with its resume, but if these four teams make the Final Four, the pick for me — and likely many others — will be Duke.
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