While the Thunder and Spurs are separating themselves from the field, and Boston is red hot, the most interesting race in the final month of the NBA season is the East 5-10 seeds. All those teams are within five games of each other, and a lot is on the line.
1. San Antonio Spurs
(47-17, last week No. 1)
San Antonio has gone 15-1 in this run, including thrashing the Houston Rockets by 25 on NBC’s Sunday Night Basketball. However, it was a win over the Clippers on Friday that left Victor Wembanyama emotional — that game summarized how far this team has come. With just over nine minutes left in the third quarter, Los Angeles led San Antonio by 25, but the Spurs ended the game on a 66-47 run to earn the victory. “That was one of the best wins. That was one of the best games, best parts of my career, my basketball life,” Wembanyama said afterwards. On Sunday, he was just putting on a show.
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2. Oklahoma City Thunder
(50-15, last week No. 3)
It’s not a coincidence that the Thunder are 5-0 since the return of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the lineup (although he did not play in one of those wins, vs. Chicago). The Thunder are getting even healthier this week with the return of reserve guard Ajay Mitchell after he missed 20 games. The Thunder will be tested this week. That starts Monday with a rematch against Denver (a game you can watch on Peacock), a physical, bad-blood showdown after Lu Dort was ejected from the last meeting for a foul on Nikola Jokic (a game the Thunder won in OT without SGA). That Monday matchup is not just a game between the two betting favorites to win the NBA title (via DraftKings) but also the two frontrunners for MVP, although SGA has created a little separation in that race as Denver has stumbled a little of late. After that, Oklahoma City has games against Boston and Minnesota.
3. Boston Celtics
(43-21, last week No. 4)
Boston is 2-0 since Jayson Tatum’s return — including an impressive thrashing of Cleveland Sunday — and through two games he has averaged 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, playing 27 minutes a night. He’s had some really impressive stretches, such as the first quarter against Cleveland, although he is still finding his shooting stroke (5-17 from 3-point range). “It was surreal…” Tatum said of his return. “I dreamed about this, and for it to finally happen… it was everything I could have dreamed of. It’s been tough. Emotional. A lot of times, I doubted myself. A lot of nights, I spent crying. But I just tried to keep showing up every day.” Big measuring stick game against the Spurs on Coast 2 Coast on NBC and Peacock Tuesday.
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4. New York Knicks
(41-24, last week No. 6)
Since Jan. 15, a 25-game sample, the Knicks have the best defense in the NBA. What changed from early in the season? “We’ve had to make changes, both offensively and defensively, to adapt to our personnel… and it’s just been a process…” coach Mike Brown said, referencing the players in and out of the lineup due to health. “So give a lot of credit with the incremental process that we made on the defensive floor. In terms of Xs and Os, the physicality has gotten better, for sure on the end of the floor, more than anything else.” That defense has New York 1-1 through two games of a five-game road trip that includes some winnable games in Utah and Indiana this week.
5. Detroit Pistons
(45-18, last week No. 2)
Detroit dropped four in a row, but it was blowing a 23-point second-half lead to the tanking Brooklyn Nets that stands out as maybe Detroit’s ugliest loss of the season. If you’re asking how that can happen, that game is a reminder of the drop-off once Cade Cunningham is off the court (he was out for the night but played against Miami Sunday). Even against the Nets’ lowly defense, Detroit struggled to consistently run its offense without Cunningham leading it. Boston is now within 2.5 games of Detroit for the No. 1 seed and the Pistons need to rack up a few wins in the coming weeks to secure that top spot.
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6. Cleveland Cavaliers
(39-25, last week No. 5)
One of the things Cleveland needed to make a leap forward and be a threat to come out of the East this season was improved play from Evan Mobley on the offensive end. Since James Harden’s arrival, we have seen a little more of that: In his last five games, Mobley is averaging 18.8 points, shooting 42.9% from 3-point range, and grabbing nine rebounds a night. With that improved Mobley, Cleveland beat Detroit but lost to Boston last week, splitting big measuring stick games. This week, the schedule lightens up.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
(40-24, last week No. 7)
It remains hard to get a real feel for this team on any given night. Minnesota is 8-2 in its last 10, with quality wins in that stretch, including against Denver, but then you watch it lose to Orlando by 27 over the weekend and wonder if this team is any good. Both of the losses in the last 10 games are by 27 points, this is a team capable of losing focus on any given night and getting crushed. The Timberwolves are also capable of beating anyone. They need to be focused this week with a tough four-game, West road swing that starts in Los Angeles on Tuesday — part of NBA Coast 2 Coast on NBC and Peacock — and finishing next Sunday in Oklahoma City.
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8. Denver Nuggets
(39-25, last week No. 8)
Denver just can’t catch a break. Aaron Gordon made his return to the Nuggets lineup on Friday, only to have Jamal Murray leave that same game after rolling his ankle. While Murray’s injury reportedly is not serious (he is questionable for Monday night), this team just needs to get healthy. Gordon returned after missing 17 games, and the Nuggets went 8-9 in those games (to be fair, Nikola Jokic and others missed time in that stretch, too). Denver may limit Gordon for a while. Remember, he first injured his right hamstring in November, missed 19 games, returned for a few weeks, then strained it again, missing more than a month in that second go-round. Denver needs him for the playoffs, the Nuggets’ defense is 7.1 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court. Big rematch with the Thunder Monday night on Peacock.
9. Miami Heat
(36-29, last week No. 12)
Winners of five in a row and quietly one of the hotter teams in the NBA — Miami’s streak includes beating Houston, Charlotte and Detroit. Over their last 15 games, the Heat are 10-5 with the fourth-best offense and sixth-best defense in the league. That improved offense has seen the Heat slow the pace a little and set a few more ball screens, but with Tyler Herro and Norman Powell leading the way, this team has found its groove at just the right time. Big game this Saturday against Orlando, the team just above them in the standings.
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10. Houston Rockets
(39-24, last week No. 9)
Houston spent the past couple of weeks alternating wins and losses (3-3 in its last six), but the losses sting. There was getting blown out on national television Sunday by San Antonio. Then there was the overtime loss to the Warriors — Houston is 17-18 with a -6 net rating in the clutch this season (games within five points in the final five minutes). Make that within three points in the final three minutes and things look marginally better — a 14-14 record with a +4.2 net rating — but this is not a team that is at its best in the biggest moments. Big showdown Wednesday at Denver.
11. Orlando Magic
(35-28, last week No. 13)
The theory of the Magic before the season (and before injuries hit them hard) was that Desmond Bane would improve the offense, but their winning was built on the foundation of an elite defense. That foundation was crumbling much of the season, but the Magic have found their footing of late — Orlando has the second-best defense in the NBA over the last 10 games. Not so coincidentally, Orlando is 7-3 with a +10.9 net rating in those games, helping it hold off Miami and Philadelphia for the No. 6 seed and avoiding the play-in. Huge game Saturday against that hot Miami squad.
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12. Los Angeles Lakers
(39-25, last week No. 14)
Los Angeles holding New York to 97 points on Sunday was the latest sign in a trend — the Lakers are playing better defense of late. The multiple efforts are there, rotating quicker and drawing charges. “Down the stretch, I think we had three or four possessions where we end up with either deflection or steals. All of that was on multiple efforts. We were able to sustain that for all four quarters…” JJ Redick said after the win. “We’re 15-9 in our last 24. We’re a top-10 offense and a top-15 defense. That’s what we wanted coming into this season with this group, and that’s where our group is right now.” Watch that defense get put to the test Tuesday night on NBA Coast 2 Coast on NBC, when they take on Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves. Maybe that game will feature more Luka magic.
13. Phoenix Suns
(37-27, last week No. 17)
Devin Booker is back and had 17 points in his first game, a soft landing against Sacramento. It’s only gotten better from there, he’s played 30+ minutes in each game, scored 30+ in in the last two, and most importantly the Suns are 3-1 in those games as they try to chase down a top-six seed (Phoenix is just two games back of the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver for the 5/6 seeds, and 2.5 games back of Houston for the No. 4 slot, but the Suns are going to need help to reach that goal (Denver has the toughest remaining schedule of all those teams).
14. Charlotte Hornets
(32-33, last week No. 16)
Before running into Chicago (of all teams), Charlotte not only had a six-game winning streak, but won each game by 15+ points — the last team to do that was the Kevin Durant/Stephen Curry-era Warriors. The Hornets are 16-5 since Jan. 22, the second-best record in the league in that stretch, and with the best offense in the league in that time. Charlotte is 21-4 in games in which LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Kon Knueppel, and Moussa Diabate start. The question now for the No. 10 seed Hornets is how high they can climb in the standings in the final month of the season. Charlotte is three games back of No. 8 seed Philadelphia and four games behind No. 6 seed Orlando.
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15. Toronto Raptors
(36-27, last week No. 10)
Toronto’s season can be summed up best this way: It is 21-7 against teams below .500 and 15-20 against teams over .500, which includes going 3-8 against the four teams above them in the East. The Raptors are a good team that beats the teams below them but can’t really compete with the best the league has to offer. This week, Toronto gets three of those good teams: Houston, Phoenix, and Detroit.
16. Atlanta Hawks
(33-31, last week No. 18)
Winners of six in a row, but the key ones were victories over the Bucks (a team chasing them for a spot in the play-in) and Philadelphia (a team now just 1.5 games ahead of them for the No. 8 seed). Part of the improvement is Dyson Daniels looking more comfortable in his role at the three for this team. Three more winnable games coming up for Atlanta this week in Dallas, Brooklyn and Milwaukee.
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17. Philadelphia 76ers
(34-29, last week No. 11)
The 76ers just can’t stay healthy. All-Star Tyrese Maxey is out at least a couple of games with a sprained finger (and Philly fans need to hope it’s not longer), Joel Embiid remains out with an oblique strain, and Paul George is still suspended. Philadelphia has a -19.6 net rating this season when none of those three is on the court. Even with Maxey, the 76ers couldn’t break 100 points against the Celtics or Spurs lately, and this week Cleveland and Detroit are on the schedule. Philly needs wins to hold on to that No. 6 seed, and those wins will be hard to come by until this team gets healthy.
18. Los Angeles Clippers
(31-32, last week No. 19)
It took three games for Darius Garland to be in the Clippers’ starting lineup, and through three games in LA, he is averaging 15 points and 5.3 assists a game, including 21 points as a starter against Memphis. If you’re looking for a sign of how hard the Clippers are playing for Ty Lue, look at last week’s come-from-behind wins against the Warriors (17 down) and Memphis (19), and we’ll just ignore that blown 25-point lead against the Spurs. The Clippers have a five-game home stand coming up, but it starts with tough ones against the Knicks and Timberwolves (although in both cases those teams played the Lakers the night before).
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19. Golden State Warriors
(32-31, last week No. 15)
The good news is Kristaps Porzingis made a return from illness and played for the Warriors on Saturday night. The bad news is that Stephen Curry remains out with his runner’s knee and will miss most, if not all of this week. Golden State is 5-8 in this stretch without Curry on the court (or Jimmy Butler) and are going to have to fight to maintain their No. 8 seed and hold off the LA Clippers — who the Warriors lost to this week and have just a one-game lead over (Portland is just 2.5 games back as the No. 10 seed).
20. Portland Trail Blazers
(31-34, last week No. 20)
It was so good to see THAT Scoot Henderson on Sunday, dropping 28 points off the bench and looking like what so many of us hoped he could be as the No. 2 pick. Consistency matters, but that was a promising sign. Also good to see Deni Avdija back after a 7-game absence, he is in the mix for an All-NBA spot and could use a strong finish to the season.
21. Milwaukee Bucks
(27-36, last week No. 21)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is back on the court but that was not enough. In a week the Bucks needed wins, they lost critical games to the Hawks and Magic at home, and Milwaukee now sits four games out of the play-in with just 19 games left in the season (and it is chasing hot Charlotte and Atlanta teams). After three injuries sidelined him this season, Antetokounmpo realizes he may have to change how he plays a little now and in the future. “I’ve just got to be smarter moving forward, because things that I was able to do in the past maybe I’m not able to do now. I’ve just got to be more methodical with my rehab…” Antetokounmpo said after his first game. “I’m not old, but I’m older, for sure. I’m not 24 years old anymore. I’m 31.”
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22. New Orleans Pelicans
(21-45, last week No. 22)
Since his return to the lineup, Dejoute Murray is averaging 16 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists a game, and the Pelicans are 3-3 in the games he’s played. This team is finally healthy, but that just exposes the concern along the front line as the tallest player in interim coach James Borego’s starting five is 6’8″ Saddiq Bey (or maybe Herb Jones is the five at 6’7″), and rookie Derik Queen is now the sixth man. The Pelicans are home for five of their next six games.
23. Memphis Grizzlies
(23-39, last week No. 23)
While the Grizzlies are technically the No. 11 seed in the West, they are 6.5 games back of No. 10 Portland — the play-in is not happening this season. Not that it was a surprise, with Jaren Jackson Jr. traded away at the deadline and Ja Morant still sidelined (elbow), the rebuild is underway in Memphis. Rough week ahead for the healthy Grizzies players, with four games in five days (due to schedule changes around the league).
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24. Chicago Bulls
(26-38, last week No. 25)
In their last 15 games, the Bulls have the worst offense in the NBA, with an offensive rating of 105 (for comparison, the league median for that stretch is 114.5). Chicago still has games where everything comes together, like last week’s upset win over Phoenix, but it’s now a tanking team that’s going to have more rough nights than good ones. The Bulls are on the road out West, taking on the Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers this week.
25. Dallas Mavericks
(21-43, last week No. 24)
Cooper Flagg returned this week and looked rusty through three games (but played 25+ minutes in each one). While he scored in the high teens in each game, Flagg shot 33.9% in those games and is 2-of-11 from 3-point range in those games. He was not able to snap Dallas’ losing streak, which has now reached seven games. Tough week for the Mavericks, who have four games in five days to make up for a postponement, including a home-and-home against Cleveland.
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26. Utah Jazz
(19-45, last week No. 26)
The fans in Utah are (wisely) already looking ahead to next season, and part of the reason to be optimistic about that is Ace Bailey is looking better and better each game. The No. 5 pick last June dropped 32 on the Wizards this past week, helping Utah snap a seven-game losing streak. Whatever Utah’s future looks like, Ace Bailey is going to be part of it.
27. Brooklyn Nets
(16-47, last week No. 30)
There will be changes coming to Brooklyn this offseason, but Michael Porter Jr. would like to stick around, he said on the Emily Porter Show. “I’m enjoying my time here. It’s obviously different than Denver, but um, you know, I’m 27 now. And to have this time of my life to embrace this different opportunity. I’m all about it. So, I’m excited for not only the remainder of this year, but going forward hopefully with Brooklyn.”
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28. Sacramento Kings
(15-50, last week No. 29)
Russell Westbrook used his beef with the Sacramento media as fuel for his best game of the season, a 23-point triple-double (with 12 assists and 11 rebounds) with no turnovers as the Kings beat the Bulls. It’s going to be interesting to see where Westbrook lands this offseason (he will be a free agent).
29. Washington Wizards
(16-47, last week No. 27)
Trae Young made his Washington debut, playing in two games with a minutes restriction (currently set around 20), and he scored 17 against the Pelicans and a dozen against the Jazz (both Washington losses). Even with Young back, the Wizards have dropped eight in a row and their next eight games are all against teams over .500.
30. Indiana Pacers
(15-49, last week No. 28)
Coach Rick Carlisle said that center Ivica Zubac will play at some point this season, he has been out since before being traded to the Pacers with an ankle sprain. It would be ironic if Zubac — an underrated center in the league — came back and helped the Pacers win a few games, increasing the odds the Pacers’ first-round pick in June goes to the Clippers (Indiana keeps it if it’s 1-4, after that it goes to LA). Because of that potential, don’t expect to see a lot of Zubac this season, but it sounds like he will play.
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