You’ll notice something about these Atlanta Motor Speedway odds below. They’re somewhat similar to what you saw last week at Daytona.
Most weeks, the favorites are in the +350-to-+500 range, while the longest of longshots are +50000 or maybe even +100000.
However, for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400, our range below is +850 for the favorite and +10000 for the longest of longshots. That’s right, it’s another “plate race,” where the Haves and Have Nots are brought closer together by rules that throttle the horsepower.
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Yes, making the cars slower seems counterintuitive to something called a race, but NASCAR doesn’t want things getting way out of hand at its fastest tracks. So at Daytona, Talladega and, as of a few years ago Atlanta, speeds are hamstrung and while the top teams are still the top teams, their upper rung is lower to the ground.
These are the weeks you look for a relative bargain deep on the board in order to get the better payday while it’s available … and not just theoretically available.
Daniel Suarez, never among the top tier of favorites, won this race a year ago in three-wide photo finish, and several other non-faves had real chances. Austin Cindric finished fourth, Ricky Stenhouse sixth and Michael McDowell eighth. All led laps. Todd Gilliland (remember him?) led 58 laps!
Something to keep in mind as we tour the odds …
The NASCAR favorites at Atlanta, beginning with Ryan Blaney
+850: Ryan Blaney
+900: Joey Logano
+1200: Kyle Busch
+1300: Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric
+1400: Denny Hamlin
+1500: William Byron
+1600: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson
+1750: Christopher Bell
Kyle Busch can’t buy a break, hasn’t won in forever, yet he’s third on the board. Also weird: William Byron is coming off a Daytona win, after surviving big-pack racin’ and wreckin’, yet is behind six others.
Next up: Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suarez and others who could win Atlanta
+2250: Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe
+3000: Ty Gibbs
+4000: Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Todd Gilliland
That’s a big group at +2250 and, yes, everyone one of them could win Sunday. Remember, Suarez is the defending winner, and he was actually +4500 on race day. It’ll be interesting to see if McDowell’s big-track quality transfers from Front Row to Spire Motorsports. He led some laps at Daytona and finished 11th in the mess at the end, so maybe.
NASCAR longshots for Atlanta, including Corey LaJoie and former Daytona 500 winner Austin Dillon
+5000: Justin Haley, Josh Berry
+6000: Austin Dillon, Corey LaJoie, AJ Allmendinger
+7500: Riley Herbst, Ty Dillon, Cole Custer, Noah Gragson
+10000: Zane Smith, Carson Hocevar, Shane van Gisbergen, John Hunter Nemechek
+25000: JJ Yeley, BJ McLeod, Cody Ware
Along with LaJoie and Dillon, consider Cole Custer. Do you put much stock in the fact he had a real chance at winning Daytona? He was right there battling for the lead when the last-lap mayhem ignited.
— Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Bet NASCAR Atlanta race? Ryan Blaney OK; check out Austin Dillon odds
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