NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions, Odds & Picks — Dover Motor Speedway

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🏁NASCAR All-Star Race: Key takeaways

• Best pre-qualifying bet: Kyle Larson (+550) — Posted recent dominant efforts in All-Star Race and at Dover.

• Best pre-qualifying value: Bubba Wallace (+4000) — Always gives it his all in All-Star Race.

• Best pre-qualifying prop bet: Ty Gibbs Top 3 (+400) — Owns solid form in limited starts at Dover.

• Track: New engine and tire package from Bristol carries over to Dover, results could too.

• Weather: Warm with little rain or wind to speak of.

NASCAR All-Star Race odds: Favorites & full field

The NASCAR All-Star Race runs at 1 p.m. ET on FS1 this Sunday, May 17. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of 5-16.

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Check out the full NASCAR All-Star Race field.

Best bets card (updated Saturday)

• Outright: Kyle Larson (+550)

• Outright: Bubba Wallace (+4000)

• Matchup: William Byron (+100) over Tyler Reddick

Who’s hot? Who’s not?

• 🔥 Ryan Preece — Average finish of 12.6 in last eight overall.

• ❄️ Ryan Blaney — No better than 10th in four straight.

Track breakdown: What wins at Dover Motor Speedway?

• NASCAR and officials at Dover Motor Speedway will try to widen the racing grooves and increase grip around the track ahead of the All-Star Race. Resin will be applied to the corners to help create multiple racing lanes, and tires will be dragged across the racing surface to lay down rubber and increase grip on the concrete oval.

• The same 750-horsepower engine and left-side tire package that debuted at Bristol on April 12 will be introduced at Dover.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

Bettors should note that Sunday’s NASCAR All-Star Race will follow a much different format than the usual Cup Series race. All 36 full-time drivers will compete in two 75-lap stages before the field is reduced to 26 for a final 200-lap sprint to the finish.

NASCAR will invert the Top 26 drivers following the opening segment, forcing the top finishers in Stage 1 to race back through traffic during Stage 2.

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Drivers to watch

• There are 19 drivers who are already locked into the final segment: Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Carson Hocevar, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen, and Bubba Wallace.

• Six additional drivers can race their way into the final stage based on how they far in Stages 1 and 2. One additional driver will advance through a fan vote.

Odds movement & market notes

• I was stunned to see Alex Bowman open at +1100, especially considering he’s not locked into Stage 3. It’s easy to see him drifting up in price.

• As a three-time All-Star Race winner, it would not be shocking to see Kyle Larson take late action and fall from +550.

Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick 1: Kyle Larson to win (+550)

Larson has won this race at three different tracks.

• Track Fit: Leads all active drivers in average finish at Dover (7.9).

• Recent Form: Poor, but with excuses; two crashes and a road course were involved.

• Market Value: +450 is the cutoff point.

Risk: Has missed the Top 20 in three straight overall.

Pick made on 5-16.

Pick 2: Bubba Wallace to win (+4000)

His Dover form is underrated.

• Track Fit: Career-best seventh here last year.

• Recent Form: Up-and-down, but toss his wreck at Talladega and 29th at Watkins Glen.

• Market Value: Playable down to +2500.

Risk: Has never won at Dover.

Pick made on 5-16.

Best Top 3 bet

Pick: Ty Gibbs to finish Top 3 (+400)

Won the All-Star Open in 2024, has come into his own this season.

• Track Fit: Third in average rating at Dover.

• Recent Form: Third at Watkins Glen last week, his sixth Top 5 of 2026.

• Market Value: +250 or better is fair.

Risk: Missed the Top 3 in three straight prior to last Sunday.

Pick made on 5-16.

Best matchup & head-to-head bet

Pick: William Byron (+100) over Tyler Reddick

Byron’s recent bad luck at Dover is being weighed in too much.

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• Matchup Advantage: Byron has Top 10s in six of his last seven, factoring out Watkins Glen and Talladega.

• Key Stat: Byron wrecked in consecutive races here, but ran fourth in three of his prior four.

Risk: Betting against Reddick has been tough to do in 2026.

Pick made on 5-16.

How to watch the NASCAR All-Star Race

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race.

Dover Motor Speedway weather

Temperatures will reach 86F on Sunday in Dover, DE, with winds peaking at 7 mph. There’s only a 10% chance of rain interrupting proceedings.

Previous NASCAR All-Star Race winners

NASCAR All-Star Race betting FAQ

When is the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race?

The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race festivities kick off on Sunday, May 17 at 1 p.m. ET on FS1.

Where will the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race be held?

Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE is hosting the NASCAR All-Star Race for the first time in 2026.

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Who is the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race favorite?

Denny Hamlin is favored at +370.

Who won the NASCAR All-Star Race last year?

Christopher Bell won the race last year, when it was held at North Wilkesboro Speedway.

How do NASCAR All-Star Race prop bets work?

You can wager on drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 instead of just to win. There are also head-to-head matchup props available.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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