MLB Home Run Derby 2025 preview: Who will emerge victorious from this year’s Derby field?

ATLANTA — The night of a million taters is almost here.

On Monday in the Atlanta suburbs, large baseball fellas will launch dinger after dinger through the humid Georgia night. The MLB Home Run Derby, that splendid festival of slug, is the most whimsical notch on the hardball calendar. It exists, primarily, because it is fun. This exercise in longball joy is an opportunity to put your worries — baseball-related and otherwise — aside and enjoy a downpour of dingers.

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And even though this year’s Derby field lacks top-shelf star power — not a single Derby contestant was an All-Star last season — this lineup is still an absolute doozy. Let’s dive in.

The format

The Home Run Derby’s configuration has changed a great deal over the years, so you’d be forgiven for forgetting what in Ken Griffey’s Jr.’s name the setup is nowadays.

Here’s the rub: In the first round, all eight hitters will have three minutes or 40 pitches to crank taters, whichever comes first. When the clock times out or the bag of balls runs dry, it’s pencils down — sort of. Each player then gets an untimed round that continues until they make three outs (any non-homer batted ball). If the batter had a big fly longer than 425 feet during the timed round, he’ll also be rewarded an extra out.

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After that round concludes, the top four hitters by home run tally advance to the semifinals, in which seeding is done by first-round home run total. In the semis, rounds are two minutes or 27 pitches. Winners advance to the finals, which is still two minutes or 27 pitches. Totals do not carry over from round to round.

The ballpark

Truist Park is unremarkable when it comes to longball frequency. This yard is neither a pitcher’s paradise nor a launching pad. The dimensions are somewhat friendlier to left-handed swingers; it’s 10 feet shorter to right field both down the line and in the power alley.

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One important note about the outfield fences: Truist Park has a huge, 16-foot wall in right field, while the wall down the left-field line is just 6 feet high. That might come into play for line-drive-homer types, potentially helping a right-handed hitter such as Junior Caminero and hurting a lefty such as Oneil Cruz.

The contestants

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

• Home runs: 38 (1st in MLB)

• Derby thrower: Todd Raleigh (dad)

What a first half it has been for the Big Dumper. Seattle’s behind-inclined backstop has popped a league-leading 38 homers so far this season, easily the most pre-All-Star-break by a catcher and just one short of the first-half record set by Barry Bonds in 2001. But how will Cal’s juice translate to the Derby setting? From which side will Raleigh, a switch-hitter, swing? Can he become the first catcher to ever win the Derby? These, my dear friends, are the important questions.

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Something to consider: Only two sluggers have ever won with their dad as their batting practice pitcher. That’s Robinson Cano in 2011 and Bryce Harper in 2018. Of course, there’s a beautiful sentimentality to having pops on the grand stage, but from a purely competitive standpoint, the professional BP throwers are pros for a reason.

James Wood, Washington Nationals

• Derby thrower: Ricky Gutierrez, Nats 3B Coach

Wood has ascended into the game’s upper echelon this season, putting together the oodles of talent that made him the cornerstone of the Juan Soto trade.

The limby slugger has a fascinating breakdown of home runs by location. Of his 24 long balls, seven have been to the opposite field, while 11 have been to center (the most in MLB). Wood’s pull power is still preposterous, as his 451-foot blast against the Marlins showcased, but it’ll be interesting to see how he approaches things.

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Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

• Derby thrower: Tomas Francisco, Rays MLB field coordinator

According to Statcast, this Dominican youngster has the second-fastest bat speed in the bigs. That twitch allows Caminero to rake balls out to all parts of the field; seven of his 23 bombs have been backside.

Often, the 22-year-old’s biggest impediment to MVP-level stardom seems to be his propensity to hit the ball on the ground. Whether Caminero can elevate enough to celebrate — like he did in the Dominican Winter League last winter — will dictate his Derby performance.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

• Derby thrower: Tommy Watkins, Twins 3B coach

That Buxton, perhaps the most injury-plagued über-talent of the past decade, is healthy enough to participate in the Home Run Derby feels like a minor miracle. Despite all the various ailments over the years, the 31-year-old outfielder hasn’t lost much, if any, of his extraterrestrial athleticism. He has the second-longest home run this season and is the league’s second-fastest runner.

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This Derby is sure to be an emotional moment for Buxton, a Georgia native and a player who has paid his dues and then some. A victory would make his return to the Peach State even sweeter.

Brent Rooker, Athletics

• Derby thrower: Joe Caruso, childhood hitting coach

Maybe you missed it because he has been playing for bad and nomadic A’s teams, but Rooker is a tater machine. He has the ninth-most long balls in MLB since the start of 2023, behind only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Cal Raleigh, Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Juan Soto and Marcell Ozuna.

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

• Hardest-hit homer: 113.4, April 4 vs. Marlins

Olson is filling in for Ronald Acuña Jr. as the hometown favorite. Acuña was forced to withdraw from the Derby last week after he missed a game last week due to back tightness and wanted to err on the side of caution.

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And so in steps Olson, a Georgia native who attended the Derby as a fan the last time it was held in Atlanta, way back in 2000. He’ll have the crowd behind him, but a hometown guy hasn’t won since Harper in D.C. in 2018.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees

• Derby thrower: Geron Sands, stepfather

Even though this is his first big-league Derby, Jazz is no stranger to this type of competition. He has been competing in the Don’t Blink Home Run Derby, a homer competition held in his native Bahamas, for a long time now. And it’s not like Chisholm is going to be intimidated by the spotlight.

The one concern with Jazz is that he’s easily the smallest guy in the field, meaning he might need to swing harder to generate pop. During the season, when you’re taking only a handful of swings every at-bat, that’s not a problem, but in a Derby setting, things can get exhausting quickly.

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Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

• Derby thrower: Stephen Morales, Pirates coach/translator

Cruz has always been a statistical standout. His laser-beam homer in May against Milwaukee was the single hardest-hit ball ever tracked in the history of the sport. Cruz is also the fastest swinger in MLB, the owner of the highest average exit velocity and, not that it matters in the Derby, the strongest arm.

Sure, he’s a very flawed offensive player, but have you seen him disintegrate a baseball? There’s nothing else like it, except for maybe peak Giancarlo Stanton. Again, this is probably the most powerful man to ever put on baseball pants. If he’s locked in on Monday, it’s going to be a special, special show.

Prediction: Cruz over Buxton in the finals