Two of the top four offenses in runs scored will face off tonight when the Pittsburgh Pirates come to town to play the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are third in MLB in runs and the Pirates are only four runs behind them.
The Braves will be facing Mitch Keller who has yet again put together a season of almost the exact same output of an ERA in the low fours. This year it is currently at 4.35. The good news for the Braves is that many of their core lineup bats have a history of doing well against Keller. Ronald Acuña has nineteen at-bats against Keller in which he already has three HRs, a .421 average, and 1.371 OPS. Matt Olson has the same exact OPS against Keller in twelve at-bats to include one HR and a .500 average.
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Austin Riley has ten at-bats against Keller and has a .400 average and 1.055 OPS, and Mauricio Dubón has a .400 average and .955 OPS in ten at-bats. Michael Harris has struggled to an OPS of .500, but has a .250 average against Keller in twelve at-bats, so before the lineup dropped it was interesting to wonder if Walt Weiss was going to factor this in when he penciled in the names.
The other question mark, which has been daily at this point, is who is going to get the start at shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim has faced Keller in eleven at-bats and is hitless and has not exactly been living up to expectations this season so it made sense to sit him tonight, but Weiss could have decided to give him more reps to try and get him in a groove.
Finally, Austin Wynns had not made his first start yet, so some may have been patiently awaiting to see if tonight was going to be the night, especially considering Sandy León is clearly on the roster for his glove and veteran presence since it seems like he has not hit in a decade.
It turns out that Weiss went with Dubón at SS so that Mike Yastrzemski could be in LF and Dominic Smith could be the DH. It also looks like we will have to wait for Austin Wynns to get his first start in a Braves uniform. Outside of León, this looks to be the best offensive lineup to face Keller.
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Martín Pérez will be on the bump for the Braves in the midst of his best season since 2022. He has been aided by BABIP and strand rates, but he still has his best expected ERA (xERA) since 2022 as well. Even though Martín Pérez has been in MLB since 2012, no player on the Pirates has more than nine at-bats against him. Brandon Lowe has an OPS of .788 in those nine at-bats. One player to keep an eye on is long time Brave, Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is second on the team with seven at-bats against Pérez, and has done a ton of damage. He owns a .571 average and 1.700 OPS.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
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