One of the best stories in college football continues as No. 18 South Florida looks for its third straight win against a ranked opponent, traveling to face No. 5 Miami on Saturday.
This will be the eighth meeting in the series between in-state foes, which Miami leads 6-1 after a 50-15 win in Tampa last season. And while the Bulls are riding high off back-to-back victories upsets of Boise State and Florida, it’s not like the top-five Hurricanes are off to a slow start after kicking off their season with a win against Notre Dame in Week 1. Both teams are going to be popular picks to win their respective conferences this year, but before those campaigns get under way this game remains of high importance to building out a case for the College Football Playoff for both teams.
Miami backed up its win against Notre Dame with a 45-3 victory against Bethune-Cookman that saw Carson Beck complete 22 of his 24 pass attempts for 267 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The former Georgia quarterback now leads the ACC in completion percentage (77.8%) through two weeks while also ranking fifth in the conference in passing touchdowns (4) and passer rating (175.64). His competition at quarterback is USF star Byrum Brown, who accounted for nine of the team’s 10 plays of 10+ yards in the win over Florida and has now thrown a program-record 240 passes without an interception.
Miami vs. South Florida: Need to know
Miami’s defense showing improvement early: One of the big changes from 2024 to 2025 was Miami hiring Corey Heatherman to take over as defensive coordinator, looking to improve one of the few weaknesses on a team that went 10-3 and came a win away from playing for the ACC Championship. So far, the sample size is small but the results are encouraging. The Hurricanes are giving up 13.5 points per game through two games, with most of that coming in the season opening win against a top-10 Notre Dame team. Miami has a strong defensive line that is able to generate pressure on the passer and so far appear solidified in the secondary, though both of those groups will be challenged by Byrum Brown and the USF offense.
USF getting it done with halftime adjustments: Sometimes winning football games can come down to winning at the margins, and USF is doing a great job of that when it comes to halftime adjustments and getting an edge in the third quarter. USF outscored Boise State 14-0 in the third quarter in the opener and then outscored Florida 9-0 in the third quarter in last week’s win. But that 23-0 advantage in the third quarter is actually an extension of a trend that started last season. USF has a +90 point differential (146-56) in the third quarter since the start of 2024, which ranked tied for fifth among all FBS teams in that span.
Ball security will be an X-factor: Both Miami and USF are tied for 8th among all FBS teams with a +4 turnover margin on the season and both are among the 22 teams who have yet to lose a turnover in 2025. The Hurricanes have two fumbles recovered and two interceptions while the Bulls have recovered three of their opponents’ fumbles and intercepted DJ Lagway in the win against the Gators. When looking at the places where this game will be decided, look for turnover margin to be the X-factor between two teams that have done a good job taking care of the football.
Where to watch Miami vs. South Florida live
Date: Saturday, Sept. 13 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: CW | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Miami vs. South Florida prediction, picks
USF has done great work to set itself up for a College Football Playoff run should the Bulls be able to win the American, but that giant-killer mentality will be put to the test against a Miami team that is an upgrade on both lines of scrimmage. As long as Miami can do a better job of applying pass rush to Byrum Brown and limit the explosive plays that powered each of the last two USF wins, the Hurricanes should be able to defend home turf and win handily. Pick: Miami -17.5
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