No. 11 seed North Carolina made a statement on Tuesday in the First Four with a near record-setting 95-68 win over No. 11 seed San Diego State to advance to the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Despite UNC’s controversial inclusion in the tournament over other bubble teams like Indiana, West Virginia, and Boise State, the Tar Heels made the most of their second-chance opportunity.
UNC left no doubt that it can not only win one game in the NCAA Tournament but potentially go on a run. A common theme since the inception of the First Four in 2011 is teams using it as a springboard to propel them to an unlikely run. North Carolina opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 6 seed Ole Miss, and the path toward a Cinderella run by its seeding standards is favorable.
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The key to a deep tournament run for UNC is guard play and its 3-point shooting. North Carolina star RJ Davis checked both boxes off in the win over SDSU by scoring 26 points and knocking down all six of his 3-point attempts. North Carolina made 14 3-pointers as a team, which set the program record for the most makes in an NCAA Tournament game.
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Isaac Trotter
Thirteen teams have won multiple games in the NCAA Tournament after playing in the First Four. That includes VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021), who both went from First Four to Final Foul. It also includes No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, a program that shocked the college basketball world in 2023 by upsetting No. 1 seed Purdue.
Only once (2019) has the First Four failed to produce a team that wins multiple games. CBS Sports’ Zachary Pereles made the case for why the winner of Texas vs. Xavier on Wednesday has the best chance of making a deep run.
I’m here to make the case for North Carolina.
The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups. The unpredictability of one of the most entertaining sporting events in the world has produced unlikely matchups deep into the tournament that no one thought was possible. If North Carolina wins (as a favorite) against Ole Miss on Friday, a matchup with No. 3 seed Iowa State could be in the cards for Sunday.
In my expert bracket predictions (submitted before the First Four began), I had North Carolina reaching the Elite Eight because the bottom of the South Region is there for the taking. If the Tar Heels face the Cyclones with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line later this week, UNC won’t have to worry about Iowa State star Keshon Gilbert playing. Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger announced hours after the bracket was released last weekend that Gilbert won’t be available for the Cyclones during the tournament.
Let’s say North Carolina does make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. A matchup (potentially) against No. 2 seed Michigan State would be on deck. The Tar Heels lost by one point in a nailbiter to the Spartans in the Maui Invitational earlier this season.
From a pure talent standout, North Carolina is as good as any team in its region. Case and point? 247Sports’ Adam Finkelstein has four North Carolina players (Davis, Seth Trimble, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell) as draftable NBA prospects. Only Arkansas, Duke, Alabama, Kentucky, and Illinois have more.
North Carolina isn’t your traditional No. 11 seed. The Tar Heels have the talent (and now a second chance) to make their deep tournament run that most people expected was possible before the 2024-25 season began. If Tuesday was a preview of what is potentially to come, North Carolina’s season could be extended deep into March.
First Four teams that previously made a run
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