The Elite Eight features the cream of the crop. For the first time since 2016, all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the finals of their respective regions. The combined sum of seeds is 13, tied for the lowest since 2007. The only No. 2 seed to miss out on the party, St. John’s, is replaced by worthy 3-seed Texas Tech on that side of its bracket.
What’s more is all five of the best offenses in college basketball are still alive. Six of the top nine defensive units are still kickin’. With eight of the top nine teams (RIP Gonzaga) on kenpom.com advancing, it’s not hyperbole to call the 2025 Elite Eight the best of the modern era.
The best tournament in the entire world has constructed four of the best matchups we’ve ever seen. You know the drill. Let’s dive into the weeds.
West Region
(1) Florida vs. (3) Texas Tech
Texas Tech might actually match up a little better with a Florida club that trots out three guards and two bigs compared to Arkansas’ avalanche of twitchy wings. That three-guard, two-big lineup is exactly what Texas Tech wants to do, too.
Texas Tech needs to make this a halfcourt game and play the matchup-hunting game. Darrion Williams is going to use inverted screens to try to find ways to match up onto Florida All-American Walter Clayton Jr. in the mid-post area and go to work as a play-finisher or play-creator. Veteran point guard Elijah Hawkins has to be awesome offensively against Florida’s steady dose of drop coverage. Those pocket passes will be there to JT Toppin, and he should be able to settle into a few pull-up 3s. Hawkins has drained 38% of his 65 pull-up treys this year. He needs to make multiple to spring this upset.
Conversely, Florida is at its best in chaos. These Gators want to turn defense into offense in transition and finish off possessions with 3s or lobs. Texas Tech has allowed just six transition points in the tournament’s first three games combined. Florida can get that by the first media timeout if the Red Raiders aren’t careful. Florida’s guards are much thicker and stronger than Texas Tech’s. If they’re navigating wherever they want on the floor while also making Texas Tech’s lead guards uncomfortable on the other end, the Gators should be in good shape.
Also, if Florida can sniff that 39% offensive rebound rate that it averages throughout the season, it’s winning this game. Point blank. End of story.
Chance McMillian’s status is the major X-Factor here. The Texas Tech guard is toughing through an oblique injury. If he can go, Texas Tech’s path to winning this game makes so much more sense. Texas Tech can have that net-shredder on the floor who can take advantage of a Florida defense that can occasionally lose snipers without sacrificing much defensively. Kerwin Walton, in theory, can do that, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Florida will target him early and often off the bounce. If he can’t hold up, Kevin Overton has to shoulder an even bigger role. He’s a good shooter, not a special one like McMillian, and Texas Tech needs double-digit treys to beat a Florida team that should win the shot-volume game.
The pick: If McMillian plays, Texas Tech. If McMillian is out, Florida is Final Four bound.
East Region
(1) Duke vs. (2) Alabama
BYU tried and failed to beat Alabama at its own game. Duke is not going to fall into that trap. The barrage of unguarded 3s that Alabama got to take in the Sweet 16 will not be there against a Duke team that has big guards who can also move laterally extremely well. Duke has allowed double-digit unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s just five times this year. Tyrese Proctor or Sion James are going to be draped on Mark Sears like white on rice from the opening tip.
Duke’s defense forces the most isolation possessions in college basketball this year. That’s not Alabama’s strength. Nate Oats wants to generate paint touches and drive-and-kick triples. Duke is so good at staying out of rotation and shrinking the floor.
Defensively, Alabama tries to do the same thing as Duke by limiting those valuable catch-and-shoot 3s, but the Crimson Tide’s pick-and-roll defense has some holes that Duke can exploit. BYU picked it apart, Duke can do the same. Cooper Flagg feasted against Arizona, but this smells like a Kon Knueppel spot. He will have a major size advantage against some of Alabama’s smaller guards. Maybe that coaxes Alabama to play bigger which slows down the tempo and plays right into Duke’s hands even more.
Alabama is more experienced. It has played in huge games all year long and has Final Four memories to lean on when times get tough. But if both teams are going to try and blanket the 3-point stripe, it may come down to who can protect the paint most effectively. Duke’s rim protection is elite. Alabama’s is solid. That’s the difference.
The pick: Duke
March Madness winners and losers: SEC has half of Elite Eight field that matches NCAA Tournament’s best ever
David Cobb
Midwest Region
(1) Houston vs. (2) Tennessee
Do you even need a write-up on this? You already know the hand-to-hand combat that’s on tap. These are two of the most physical teams in America. Unfortunately, the whistles are going to determine this game. There will be hits in this one that can be called Every. Single. Time. If this turns into a foul-fest, it quickly becomes a war of attrition with the last man standing making the Final Four.
I’ve long been a Jahmai Mashack defender, but Tennessee may have to quickly pivot to as many four-shooter lineups as possible against this Houston trapping defense. That means getting stud sixth man Jordan Gainey on the floor as quickly as possible. But Igor Milicic is the true X-Factor behind all of this. His ability as a secondary creator and also a 3-point threat can puncture this Houston defense repeatedly, but he routinely benches himself with inopportune fouls and his decision-making flickers between brilliant and mind-numbing.
Good Igor = Tennessee to the Final Four.
From the Houston perspective, Tennessee can “get got” on the offensive glass. Florida, the fifth-best offensive-rebounding team in the country, gobbled up at least 10 offensive rebounds in all three matchups against Tennessee. The Vols’ first-shot defense will be terrific, per usual. That scramble drill after the offensive rebound is where Houston can make some money with kickout treys.
But again, the whistle is everything in this one. Everything.
The pick: Houston
South Region
(1) Auburn vs. (2) Michigan State
Auburn and Michigan State quietly walk into every game with the same goal defensively: no 3-pointers. Michigan State gives up barely any unguarded catch-and-shoot treys. Auburn rarely gives up any 3s in general.
This game will be won or lost in the paint.
Michigan State has played solo coverage against some great big men this year, namely Oregon’s Nate Bittle and Michigan’s Vlad Goldin. Auburn star Johni Broome should get plenty of one-on-one coverage. He hasn’t looked especially explosive lately (which could be attributed to a nagging ankle injury), but he has to punish Michigan State whenever he gets the chance. Most rival coaches believe Auburn is at its absolute scariest when it’s humming from 3-point range. Michigan lived with Broome floaters or runners inside the paint. Michigan State will likely utilize the same game plan.
On paper, Auburn creates a lot of problems for Michigan State, but this Spartans team is ridiculously connected and has some nasty in ’em that you just cannot replicate. Michigan State has the guards to take Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones out of the game. Tre Holloman will be woofing early and often. Jeremy Fears Jr. is going to try and make Pettiford’s life miserable after he eviscerated Michigan. Michigan State also has the offensive rebounding that Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida used to beat the Tigers.
Auburn certainly has these moments where it can hurt itself with ill-timed fouls and wasted possessions. If you give Michigan State an inch, this group is taking it. That’s been the mantra all year.
But Michigan State hasn’t seen rim protection like this all year. This is easily the best shot-blocking club the Spartans have gone up against. If Michigan State can’t score at the rim and can’t get 3s, the road to 70 gets steep.
The pick: Auburn
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