Leo Carlsson’s $90 Million Deal Just Reignited The Cale Makar Contract Debate — And It’s Missing The Point

One contract doesn’t usually shift a league’s center of gravity — but every so often, it sparks the same question everywhere it lands.

So when the Philadelphia Flyers handed Leo Carlsson a five-year, $90 million deal on Friday, it didn’t take long for that question to surface in Colorado: what does this mean for Cale Makar?

The answer, in short, is nothing. But the conversation says more about how the NHL thinks than the contract itself.

Carlsson’s deal simply reset another layer of the market for young stars, but it doesn’t change the trajectory of what’s already been building toward Makar’s next contract in Colorado.

Leo Carlsson is a Flyer — for now. The Anaheim Ducks have less than a week to respond to the offer sheet. Credit: Griffin Hooper – Imagn Images

Makar is currently in the final year of his six-year, $54 million deal that carries a $9 million average annual value. He became eligible for an extension on July 1, and while no agreement has been announced, there is no urgency from either side. The new deal wouldn’t even begin until the 2027–28 season.

Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic has consistently expressed confidence that Makar will remain in Colorado long term. The real work now isn’t about if a deal gets done — it’s about timing, structure, and landing on the right number for both sides.

That timing conversation also includes the NHL’s upcoming collective bargaining agreement, which takes effect on Sept. 16, 2026. One key change reduces maximum contract length from eight years to seven on re-signs, meaning Colorado and Makar would have a short window to qualify for the longer term if they finalize an extension before the new rules kick in.

It adds a layer of urgency to the calendar — but not necessarily to the negotiation itself.

Because once you zoom out from Carlsson’s deal, the real question becomes familiar: how far will the top of the market actually go?

Makar is already a two-time Norris Trophy winner, a Conn Smythe winner, and one of the defining defensemen of his generation. In almost any salary structure, he’s the obvious candidate to reset the defense market — and potentially push toward the long-discussed $20 million threshold.

NHL insider Pierre LeBrun recently floated that possibility, suggesting Makar could become the league’s first $20 million player. Others around the league expect the number to land lower, projecting a range between $15 million and $16.5 million depending on term and structure, with some believing $17 million is the realistic ceiling.

On paper, a contract like Carlsson’s only fuels the idea that the next wave of stars will continue pushing the salary cap upward.

But the reality in professional sports is that the highest-paid player doesn’t always define the culture of a franchise — or the priorities of its stars.

Across sports, there are long-standing examples of elite athletes choosing structure, stability, or winning over maximizing every last dollar.

Tom Brady spent much of his career with the New England Patriots on team-friendly deals, repeatedly restructuring contracts to give the franchise flexibility and help sustain a roster capable of winning six Super Bowl championships.

In the NHL, Sidney Crosby has long been the standard for this type of approach, carrying an $8.7 million cap hit for years despite being one of the most dominant players of his era, all while helping the Pittsburgh Penguins capture three Stanley Cups.

The Avalanche already have their own version of that philosophy sitting in the locker room.

Nathan MacKinnon is currently signed through 2031 at a $12.6 million cap hit — a number widely viewed as below-market for a player of his production level. Back in 2019, when he was still on his previous contract, he explained his mindset to Forbes’ Jordan Horrobin:

“We have guys that we wouldn’t (otherwise) be able to bring in. On my next deal, I’ll take less again. Because I want to win with this group.”

MacKinnon later clarified that his previous contract wasn’t a discount at the time it was signed, but the sentiment has remained consistent: winning has always been the priority.

That mindset has helped define Colorado’s modern era, and it inevitably becomes part of any conversation about Makar’s future.

None of that guarantees a hometown discount — and it shouldn’t be interpreted as one. Makar is too valuable, too important, and too accomplished for that kind of assumption.

But it does complicate the idea that a contract like Carlsson’s automatically resets expectations in Colorado.

Yes, Makar could become the NHL’s first $20 million defenseman. Yes, he will set a new benchmark at his position. And yes, he will be paid among the very top players in the league.

The more important question is where that number lands within the range — and what matters more when the deal is actually signed.

Because if there’s one thing the Avalanche have consistently shown over the last decade, it’s that they’re willing to prioritize long-term contention over short-term money.

And in that equation, Cale Makar’s next contract was never going to be dictated by Leo Carlsson — or anyone else resetting the market.