After 25 long years, the Knicks find themselves on the cusp of the NBA Finals, with the Indiana Pacers as the lone obstacle in their way.
After beating the vaunted Boston Celtics in six games, some may feel confidence going against an arguably worse Indiana squad that took seven games to eliminate the injured Knicks last year.
But this isn’t the same Knicks team. And although they boast the same players, it’s not the same Pacers team, either.
Let’s dive into this historic matchup…
New York went 2-1 against Indiana during the regular season, with the two teams swapping blowouts. Although we can’t overly rely on those games to predict postseason results, there are insights to glean.
For one, the Knicks need to win this series on defense. In all three games against the Pacers, they scored above 120 points, and have some glaring advantages on the offensive end. But it’s a matter of how much they can slow the Pacers on the other end.
That starts with their engine Tyrese Haliburton, who is averaging 17.5 points and 9.3 assists this postseason. The natural matchup for him is Mikal Bridges, who possesses the requisite speed and length to handle someone of Haliburton’s size and dexterity.
But the Pacers will fight to take away New York’s preferred matchups, and pick on their “weak spots” Jalen Brunsonand Karl-Anthony Towns by targeting them in actions. The Celtics tried and failed at the same strategy, but the Pacers arguably have a deeper rotation of threats.
There’s also Pascal Siakam, the mid-post monster currently averaging 19 points on 55 percent shooting in the playoffs. He’s a tough cover for smaller wings likeJosh Hartand OG Anunoby, and can punish them on the offensive glass. So it will be curious to see if head coach Tom Thibodeau maybe employs Towns on him for stretches.
The Knicks have reasons to fall back on the defensive approach they used against the Celtics. This is another team that thrives off advantage creation, ball movement and open threes.
Switching against them could force them to iso-hunt, which has proven out to be a not-so-simple solution.
Indiana has the potential to be much craftier than Boston in adjusting, working in more off-ball action, slips and other counters to this scheme.
There was some success last year in deploying aggressive coverages to make Haliburton give it up and have a big make a play in open space. Siakam and Myles Turner can sneak up on you with 20 points though, so it’ll take a huge team effort equivalent to what the Knicks brought against Boston.
The Knicks need to be ready for it. The Pacers are much quicker than the Celtics, much deeper, and have stayed relatively healthy through two quick series.
If Brunson and Towns can pick up their individual efforts again, and Thibodeau can adjust on the fly with his schemes, the Knicks should be in a good spot. But their offense has struggled these playoffs, and they’ll need their best version to go shot-for-shot with Indiana.
The Pacers have the second-highest offensive rating this postseason, and a much improved defense from last year.
Luckily, the Knicks have two massive problems for them to deal with defensively.
First is Brunson, in full playoff mode, who gave the Pacers fits when they met last year. There’s no real one-on-one answer for him, but expect a lot of Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard to try to bother him with size.
Indiana has gotten burned trying to send extra attention his way, so perhaps this series they let Brunson get his and shut everybody else out? This will be tough given their second weapon in Towns.
Towns has owned this matchup all year, averaging 30.3 points and 12 rebounds in those three games. Turner can’t be his effective self defensively having to stretch out to guard Towns, who has a mobility edge and can blow by him if he’s out of position.
For all its depth, Indiana is lacking in the backup big position, and its wings are much less suited to guard Towns than Boston’s were.
There’s a chance the Pacers still go ahead with that strategy, but the Knicks have gotten used to it and should be able to find Towns and Hart opportunities to take advantage.
New York has a chance to secure this series on the glass, and should look to more Mitchell Robinson minutes to do so.
They also need Bridges and Anunoby to maintain their confidence in attacking the rim and smaller mismatches, as they can poke holes in this Pacers defense.
In a postseason full of things people thought the Knicks couldn’t do, it feels odd saying they should win this series and advance to the NBA Finals. The Pacers are no pushovers, and will put up a hard fought series, but the Knicks have the talent and coaching to trump them.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
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