The Cleveland Cavaliers are down 3-0 in the Eastern Conference finals to the New York Knicks.
Despite being one game from elimination, head coach Kenny Atkinson is forcing a positive spin on the situation.
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Atkinson spoke with the media on Sunday and had a viral moment in which he tried to rationalize that analytics would say Cleveland is, in fact, ahead in the series.
“Analytically, we are two out of three in the expected [score]. We’ve won two out of the three. If you believe in process and all that, take that layer. Us shooting way below expected, them shooting way over. No one wants to hear that, the general public doesn’t want to hear it, everyone is outcome-based. Sure, I get that too.”
Analytics are the math behind the game, and sports are increasingly leaning on them to track progress and make decisions.
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The problem with this take is that it is a fine opinion to have, but a tough pill for fans to swallow when the team is down 3-0 and is one loss away from being eliminated from the playoffs.
In reality, Cleveland is trailing the series 3-0, which is wildly different from the 2-1 series lead that Atkinson maintains the analytics show they should have.
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The Cavaliers’ head coach discusses “expected score” in the viral clip. This statistic measures what a team should have scored based on the quality of their shots in context.
Essentially, Atkinson is saying that, based on the quality of the shots they have taken, they should have won two of the three games in the series.
The Cleveland coach may have a point with the first game of the series, in which the Cavaliers blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead, and the game went into overtime. The Knicks won 115-104.
Cleveland lost Game 2 by 16 points and then Game 3 by 13 points. The Cavs shot 39% from the field in Game 2 compared to 52% by the Knicks. New York again had the edge in Game 3, shooting 56% against Cleveland’s 50%.
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The Cavaliers have their backs against the wall on Monday. If Cleveland loses, the series is over. If the Cavs win, they start their quest to become the first team in NBA history to ever come back from being down 3-0 in a playoff series.
It will be interesting to see if Cleveland does indeed get swept, whether Atkinson will acknowledge the series loss, or if he will spin it that, analytically, the Cavs are up 3-1, or that the series is now tied 2-2.
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