It wasn’t just your eyes.
Sometimes, what we feel doesn’t necessarily correspond with reality. Football is an incredibly complicated sport, and 22 players are moving simultaneously on the field at the same time, so the difference between what we observe and what’s actually happening results-wise in any given play/game/season can sometimes be stark.
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This is not one of those times.
If you think the Buffalo Bills defense was lousy in late-down situations in 2025, you’re not wrong. Every third-down given up and every fourth down given away led to a collective groan on social media, in the stands, and on couches across the world amongst Bills Mafia. But it wasn’t just a vibes-related phenomenon unsupported by actual data evidence; the Bills really were bad on late downs in 2025 and it’s one of the main things new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard should be focused on as the team prepares for 2026.
Buffalo was 25th (worst) in EPA per play against their defense in late-down (defined as third and fourth downs) situations in 2025 per SumerSports. Their 0.10 mark in the metric was third-worst among playoff teams (only the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers were worse) and it came alongside a staggering 0.64 EPA per rush against (second worst in the league next to the New York Giants at 0.75). Third and short? No problem for teams running the ball against the Bills? Fourth and inches? Basically a gimme. Whether it was 11 personnel (0.60 EPA per rush on late downs) or 12 personnel (0.77), the Bills were generally ineffective on stopping opposing offenses on third and fourth downs, in large part to their ineffectiveness against the run.
Overall, teams had a 45.5% success rate against Buffalo on late downs (20th in the NFL) and didn’t add a single meaningful investment to their defensive line in the offseason, instead counting on 3-4 edge additions, a new defensive coordinator, and continued development/repositioning of existing defensive line pieces to assist them in improving their late-down effectiveness. 2025 third-round pick Landon Jackson has bulked up to play 3-4 defensive end, former three-tech Dewayne Carter has packed on weight to play nose tackle, and sixth round pick Zane Durant has been added to the mix out of Penn State, though he doesn’t profile as a high-snap immediate contributor.
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The Bills approach to addressing this 2025 flaw is directly in line with owner Terry Pegula’s statements early in this offseason that highlighted his opinion that the Bills had a “great roster” with “good coaching”. The talent, clearly in Pegula’s and President of Football Operations Brandon Beane’s opinion, is present on the roster to get better results. They just need better coaching. An aforementioned new defensive coordinator, new defensive line coach, new inside linebackers coach, new outside linebackers coach, new defensive quality control coach…all of these hires are the pivot points the team is hoping will help improve an area that has been perceived as holding the team back from a Super Bowl appearance since 2020.
Time will tell whether Pegula and Beane are right, but if the Bills want to get over the hump, one of the areas for improvement is their late-down defense in 2026.
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!
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