Is a Hendrick Motorsports breakout weekend in store at Kansas?

By Hendrick Motorsports’ standards, the legendary four-car NASCAR Cup Series stable has been a bit off through eight races in the 2026 season. The standings show three of its drivers fifth through seventh in the series ranks, but with just one Chase Elliott victory thus far, the Chevrolet stronghold hasn’t necessarily passed the eye test.

Hendrick has 13 top-10 finishes, with only four occasions where multiple entries finished inside the top 10. Its lone victory — at Martinsville Speedway — is a minority to 23XI Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing, which have four and two wins, respectively.

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Last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson finished third and led 284 laps, while the other three Hendrick cars had a plethora of issues. Elliott spun twice — including on the final lap — and finished 22nd. William Byron — purely on pace — finished five laps down in 30th. Alex Bowman, returning to the driver’s seat after missing four races due to vertigo, suffered terminal damage in a Stage 2 crash and finished 37th. Thunder Valley — in a way — epitomized the start of Hendrick Motorsports’ 2026 campaign.

However, with a trip to Kansas Speedway on the horizon Sunday (2 p.m. ET, FOX, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), it could finally mean a breakout for HMS at a place it has recently ruled.

Hendrick is responsible for three of the last four Kansas victories, including a sweep last year with Larson in May and Elliott in September. Larson’s victory marked his second straight springtime triumph, coming after winning the 2024 race by 0.001 seconds — the closest finish in NASCAR history.

But since Larson’s most recent heartland victory, it’s been goose eggs in the win column — even despite winning last year’s championship. The two-time titleholder is staring down a year since a trip to Victory Lane, a streak currently at 32 races — his longest since moving to Hendrick in 2021. If there’s a time to break the drought, it might be Sunday.

In his last 10 Kansas starts, Larson has finished eighth or better eight times. He’s led 761 laps in that timeframe (424 more than Denny Hamlin, the next closest), including three races with more than 130 circuits out front. At 221 laps, his 2025 victory set a record for the most led in a 400-mile race at a 1.5-mile track. Should the No. 5 Chevrolet lead 25 laps Sunday, he’ll pass Kevin Harvick (949) for the most laps led all-time at the venue.

Through eight races, Larson’s numbers are promising: his five top 10s tie Denny Hamlin for fourth most in the Cup Series, and he is second in stage points, only to Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney. His average running position of 9.6 is the third-best in the league, and according to NASCAR Insights, Larson ranks fifth in Speed Rating. His strong statistical start and success at Kansas are on a collision course.

Elliott, the lone Hendrick victor in 2026, nearly won the Daytona 500 but settled for fourth, and later finished 11th at EchoPark Speedway. For good measure, he added a top 10 at Circuit of The Americas to put the No. 9 team third in points after three early wild cards. But the last five weeks on traditional ovals have been feast or famine.

chase elliott wins at martinsville

The Dawsonville, Georgia, native finished 23rd at Phoenix Raceway, followed by a runner-up to Hamlin at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He finished 15th at Darlington Raceway a week before his Martinsville win. NASCAR Insights shows Elliott 13th in the speed category thus far, but between the second-best pit crew and a top 10 rating in passing, he’s found instances where he can thrive — even if he’s off on pace.

Coming off a race in the proverbial “loss column” at Bristol, Elliott heads to one of his best tracks in Kansas. He’s statistically king, owning the best average finish at the track all-time, and has won twice. Of his last six races in Kansas, he’s only finished outside the top 10 once — the outlier coming last spring after leading 29 laps.

Much less heralded, but Bowman — back after his vertigo bout — has also performed well in the Sunflower State. He finished 28th two laps down last fall, but before that, the No. 48 driver had a streak of six consecutive top-10 finishes. Bowman led 107 laps in the fall 2022 race before ultimately finishing fourth, and paced the field on two other occasions during that span. In total, his 191 circuits out front are the second most by a driver without a Kansas win, and his 14.8 average finish — skewed down by four sub-30 results early in his career — is his second highest among all ovals.

With Bowman’s month-long absence, he faces a giant hole in the standings — sitting 36th in points and 153 points below The Chase cutline. It’s certainly a big ask to make the postseason, but a strong weekend at Kansas, as he’s proven before, is the first step toward turning the No. 48 ship back in the right direction.

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Finally, Byron’s been the most inconsistent of the Hendrick bunch at Kansas, but when the No. 24 team hits it, they’ve been with the frontrunners. Byron owns nine top 10s in 16 starts, but two of his last four trips to the Midwest resulted in finishes of 23rd or worse. But at mile-and-a-halfs across the board, he’s been solid — his 912 laps led in the Next Gen era are second to only Larson, and he also has a pair of victories. He finished third at Las Vegas, the only other 1.5-mile track this year.

Widening the scope, Byron’s average position is seventh best at 12.8, a touch lower than last year (11.0), when he led the series over 36 races. Per NASCAR Insights, he has the eighth-highest speed rating, the second-highest in the organization. But for reference, all four JGR Toyotas, plus Reddick’s 23XI Toyota, are in the top seven, evidencing a disparity between the teams early on.

That said, all signs are pointing toward Hendrick this weekend at Kansas. Could this be where the four-car squad finally hits its stride in 2026?

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