The insider notebook for Week 10 takes a grab-bag approach to the modern college football landscape: Big games, an undercurrent of the coaching carousel, and administrative trends that are reflective of the changing times.
- What coaches say about all sides of the ball in No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Penn State. Make sure you’ve read this before the game kicks off Saturday morning
- Baylor coach Dave Aranda is making a nice push to keep his job
- Is the Rice opening going to pay enough to expand the candidate pool?
- Why South Carolina is only a three-point underdog to Texas A&M
- Something that happened at Auburn this weekend to keep your eye on
Penn State’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense
In last year’s loss to Ohio State, Penn State’s offense was held to six points, 167 yards, and failed on all 14 third-down attempts over 57 minutes. That performance, contributing to the Nittany Lions’ seventh straight loss to the Buckeyes, led to the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich three weeks later. Now, with Andy Kotelnicki stepping in, Penn State aims to turn the tide as it faces No. 4 Ohio State Saturday, with hopes to move to 8-0.
While Penn State’s offense has struggled, staying under 28 points in three of its last four games, Kotelnicki’s play-calling has received consistent praise from opposing coaches. Yet, none of the Nittany Lions’ first seven opponents ranks in the top 30 nationally for scoring defense. Against Illinois — the highest-ranked scoring defense Penn State has faced at No. 34 — the Lions were limited to just 14 points through 58 minutes, eventually securing a 21-7 win. In a better showing, Penn State racked up 518 yards and 33 points to beat USC, their second-highest ranked scoring defense.
Kotelnicki’s approach has elevated quarterback Drew Allar’s game, with his QB rating climbing from 136.9 last year to 174.6 this season. Allar, though listed as a game-time decision due to last week’s injury against Wisconsin, now ranks second in the Big Ten, averaging 10 yards per attempt, up from 6.8 a year ago. His completion rate has surged to 71.3 percent from 59.9.
RELATED: Lions247’s projected QB depth chart after Allar’s injury
Before Penn State, Kotelnicki transformed Kansas’ offense, taking them from 123rd nationally in scoring under the prior staff to a top-20 offense by 2023, averaging 34.6 points per game.
Ohio State, holding the No. 4 spot in scoring defense, has shown cracks. They allowed four touchdowns in a 32-31 loss to Oregon and gave up two touchdowns over the first 50 minutes against Nebraska, who led Ohio State 17-14 late in the fourth quarter last week.
“He’s legit,” an opposing staffer said of Kotelnicki. “The formations, motions, gadgets — he’s finding ways to scheme players open. It’s so much to prepare for that many schools probably simplify their defenses against Penn State. We had to bring out more of our playbook to keep up, but he’s a real headache to prepare for.”
Ohio State’s offense vs. Penn State’s defense
Ohio State’s offense also faces questions of consistency. Despite a loaded lineup including running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, and receivers Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, the Buckeyes managed just 14 points over three-and-a-half quarters against Nebraska. A season-ending injury to left tackle Josh Simmons only adds to their offensive challenges, compounded by weak points at tight end and right tackle.
Still, Smith remains a breakout talent, with eight touchdown catches, ranking second in the Big Ten. “He’s like Julio Jones out there,” a team staffer said of the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Smith. “He’s a freaky athlete with burst, speed, and separation. Not quite as freaky as Julio, but better ball skills.”
As the Buckeyes take on Penn State’s No. 8-ranked scoring defense, they’ll contend with a unit that has held four of its five Power Four opponents to 13 points or fewer. One staffer cited safety Jaylen Reed as a particular challenge. “His nose for the ball and open-field tackling gave us problems all night,” the staffer noted, while identifying linebacker play as Penn State’s only potential vulnerability.
Dave Aranda coaching himself to safety at Baylor
A 2-4 start to the 2024 season cranked up the speculation about Dave Aranda’s long-term future at Baylor, but multiple industry sources told CBS Sports this week that Aranda’s hot seat has cooled considerably in recent weeks. Baylor is 4-4 now (2-3 Big 12) as the calendar turns to November.
Baylor has won its last two games vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and has a very manageable final four games of TCU, West Virginia, Houston and Kansas. Aranda isn’t out of the woods yet, but even splitting those four games to make a bowl game could be enough to get a sixth year in Waco.
“I think 6-6 there’s a strong possibility he’s coming back,” said one industry source. “Anything below that obviously not.”
Said another industry source: “I think Baylor is trending toward safe.”
Three of Baylor’s four losses this season have come against top 25 teams — No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 23 Colorado — and the fourth came against a Utah team in Week 2 that still had Cam Rising. The losses to Colorado and BYU felt particularly egregious in the moment because Baylor should have won, especially against Colorado, but the Bears have won convincingly the last two weeks.
Helping Aranda is an eight-figure buyout and a good working relationship with athletic director Mack Rhoades, according to industry sources, where there isn’t an eagerness to dump him at the first opportunity. Aranda is 27-29 in four-and-a-half seasons at Baylor with the peak coming in 2021 with a Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss to finish 11-2.
There would be considerable interest in the Baylor job if it opened but right now it is trending the opposite way.
Speaking of coaching theirselves to safety … our colleague Richard Johnson wrote Thursday on Florida’s critical five-game stretch for Billy Napier, which should be more manageable than we thought in the preseason (especially because Florida State and Ole Miss do not look like juggernauts, to put it kindly). If Napier can avoid a splattering this weekend vs. Georgia and guide Florida to a few wins the rest of the way, perhaps he buys himself another year in Gainesville.
Rice comes open: How much will it pay?
Rice became the third Group of Five job to open in-season Sunday, joining East Carolina and Southern Miss, when athletic director Tommy McClelland fired Mike Bloomgren after a 24-52 record over seven seasons.
The American Athletic Conference school could be one of the more intriguing openings of the cycle. There are well-known academic limitations that come with the job and offset recruiting potential in Houston, but the school has wealthy benefactors and there is industry intrigue over whether the school will get more aggressive in funding its football program moving forward. As it stands it is a job that comes with real challenges but it has potential, according to industry sources.
“If they decide to compete at the level Tulane is, it’s a very good job,” said one industry source. “If they don’t want to commit to that level, it’s just an average job.”
Coaching carousel as of Nov. 1
| School | Status | Conference | Expected Salary Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | Open (Fired Mike Houston) | American Athletic | $2-3 million |
| Fresno State | Interim Coach | Mountain West | $1-2 million |
| Rice | Open (Fired Mike Bloomgren, Oct. 29) | American Athletic | ~$1 million |
| Southern Miss | Open (Fired Will Hall, Oct. 20) | Sun Belt | <$1 million |
| Utah State | Interim Coach | Mountain West | $1-2 million |
Bloomgren made just under $1 million annually but there is a belief Rice could be willing to spend more for the right candidate. That, of course, could open up the candidate pool and type of coach potentially interested in the job. Former UAB head coach Bill Clark is one, for instance, who could emerge as a potential candidate — although he has never coached a college program outside the state of Alabama before. Clark took UAB to five bowl games in six seasons before stepping down in 2022 citing back issues.
McClelland, who arrived at Rice from Vanderbilt in 2023, is well-regarded within the industry, especially for his fundraising abilities, and there is a belief he’d like to be more aggressive with this hire. The more money at his disposal, the easier that’ll be.
Where South Carolina can frustrate Texas A&M
Even after Texas A&M’s top-15 win over LSU last week that left the Aggies as the lone unbeaten team in SEC play, No. 10 Texas A&M enters its matchup against South Carolina as just a three-point favorite.
While the Gamecocks have lost three of their last four games against Power Four opponents, they have a defensive front that opposing coaches believe could create issues for Texas A&M.
It’s a group led by the two edge rushers, senior Kyle Kennard and five-star freshman Dylan Stewart. Kennard ranks fourth nationally with 8.5 sacks. Stewart, meanwhile, leads SEC freshmen with 4.5 sacks.
Both had sacks during South Carolina’s 35-9 win over Oklahoma on Oct. 19 prior to the Gamecocks’ bye last week.
“Best front four we’ve played,” a coach from a playoff-contending team said. “Those two defensive ends they have are hard to deal with.”
South Carolina’s losses warrant a footnote. The Gamecocks looked ripe to pull off a big upset over LSU early in the season before QB LaNoris Sellers was knocked out with injury right before halftime. And they may have outplayed Alabama in a brutally close loss in Tuscaloosa, too. This is a dangerous team that coaches and Vegas have taken note of.
A new trend for college admins?
One of the more intriguing personnel moves didn’t involve a coach this week, but rather an administrator. Georgia Southern athletic director Jared Benko’s decision to leave the big chair at a Group of Five school for the executive deputy AD role at Auburn is fascinating for multiple reasons.
Benko isn’t the first to make such a move — the aforementioned Rice AD Tommy McClelland gave up the Louisiana Tech AD job to take a deputy role at Vandy — but it is always noteworthy when an AD willingly leaves a top job. Benko has been up for Power Four AD jobs in the past, including at Mississippi State, but getting his hands on NIL, funding, business operations and more as Auburn AD John Cohen’s right-hand man could set him up well in the future for AD jobs.
It also represents a growing trend of what athletic departments are looking for in shaping their staffs to keep up with a rapidly changing college athletics environment. With revenue sharing coming closer and closer to implementation, you’re seeing more ADs get aggressive about bringing people in who can help raise and/or generate money, can handle the unique complexities that will come with schools directly paying athletes and much more.
“Everybody now wants to hire a chief revenue officer or a chief development officer,” said one industry source, “and are willing to pay more for it because they all know there’s only so many ways to split a dollar.”
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