Inside the Premier League’s frantic race to secure Champions League football

In the build-up to Nottingham Forest-Arsenal, Nuno Espirito Santo has been trying to get his players to put the weekend behind them – other than to remember one lesson. That is to seize the moment, especially when momentum is going a certain way. His Forest team’s inability to do that was still hurting Nuno after that 4-3 defeat to Newcastle United. He felt a huge comeback was there to be secured. That sense of regret is all the more important ahead of Wednesday’s game, since Arsenal’s troubles offer an opportunity for a big win.

Except, this points to one of the stories of the season so far, right across the top half of the table. Nobody other than Liverpool is seizing the moment. Nobody else is really maximising good positions.

Newcastle’s victory was almost a case in point. Forest evidently couldn’t hold a lead but Eddie Howe’s team struggled almost as much with an even bigger lead. It is like this almost everywhere, to the point that crisis-wracked Tottenham Hotspur are currently on the longest winning streak in the division with three in a row.

There are otherwise wild swings everywhere. Newcastle go from conceding four goals to scoring four. Manchester City go from one of their most commanding wins to one of their worst defeats.

Hence we have a highly unusual situation this late into the season, which has made this week’s games more important for an unexpected reason. That is a hugely congested Champions League chase.

In terms of point gaps, there are a mere two between fourth and eighth; five between fourth and 10th; 10 between 3rd and 11th.

That is with just 12 games to go. It is unusual for the modern era, and looks more like a league from the 1990s or further back.

An entire tranche of the table could be overturned in the space of one game. That’s all the more pronounced this midweek, when so many of the teams meet each other.

Take the notional game of the week, at Forest, for instruction. On Saturday morning, Arsenal were looking at all of this as a chance to catch Liverpool in the title race. By Sunday morning, they were looking over their shoulders at Forest and below. By Sunday evening, Forest had lost two successive games and were looking over their shoulders themselves.

Neither are seizing moments right now, a description that Chelsea have taken to extremes. Just at the moment people were wondering whether Enzo Maresca’s side were title challengers, they collapsed to the point they’re now in seventh.

The usual description for this is as “the fourth place that no one wants”. It’s happened a few times in the years of Champions League expansion, and generally refers to when the wealthiest clubs are not on form.

The most famous example was 2015-16, which of course allowed Leicester City to surge through and win the title.

Except, it might be beyond that. There’s currently an argument that this might be a more unpredictable season, outside that crucial top spot.

Even in 2015-16, after all, Arsenal, Tottenham and Man City still qualified for the Champions League. This season might well have greater variety.

As it stands, City and Newcastle have 44 points each in fourth and fifth, respectively. If such returns remains the same, the projection for fourth place is a mere 64 points.

That would be two lower than 2015-16, and the lowest since the 60 and 61 points of 2003-04 and 2004-05, respectively. These latter two were also the first seasons in which the Premier League had four Champions League places.

More relevantly, it would be some way off the peak of 79 points, in 2013-14, during a period when it felt like teams had to hit over 70 to guarantee it. A lower projection is so much more attainable.

There are similarly no current suggestions that any of these wealthy clubs, from City to Chelsea, can put that kind of run together.

It is why the projection currently feels realistic and why a week like this may be so telling. This isn’t just about the wealthiest clubs not generating as many points, after all. Crucially, and exhilaratingly, those below are generating more.

Bournemouth are just five points off their own Premier League record.

Their trip to Brighton might consequently be one of the games of the week, a chance for one to – yes – seize the moment.

Andoni Iraola’s side have been the season’s revelation, lying a point off those Champions League places, but had their momentum checked in a 1-0 defeat to Wolves at the weekend. Brighton are on the next longest streak after Spurs, as well as on 40 points. A win for either right now would be psychologically significant, especially when as many as six matches could be considered “Champions League qualifying fixtures”

There’s the flip side, too. The next Premier League fixtures could turn any of this midweek’s results on their heads again.

That’s why it’s difficult to blame anyone outside the wealthiest for not “seizing the moment”. They can all beat each other, and some would have to drastically over-perform to reach that 64-point threshold alone. Bournemouth would have to beat that Premier League record, which was last season’s 48, by 16 points. Even former European champions like Forest, who got 77 in the 42-game 1994-95 and 58 the next season, haven’t got above 38 this millennium.

The likelihood is that this all levels out a little – but to what?

All such clubs should still feel like they have a historic opportunity. Aston Villa can feel like they can become part of the Champions League establishment.

Some of the reasons for this have already been discussed on these pages. The calendar has finally caused havoc for the wealthiest clubs through accumulated fatigue, often denying them their best players. Against that, a theme of the season has been how some of the campaign’s best performers have been from clubs outside the elite.

That is another comparison to 2015-16. For West Ham United’s Dmitri Payet and Leicester City’s famous trio in that season, read Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo, Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Forest’s Chris Wood, Brentford’s Bryan Mbuemo, Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and – above all – Newcastle’s Alexander Isak. Their elevation is partly down to PSR, as unpopular as that rationale may be. The regulations have prevented the wealthiest clubs being able to pay what those below can demand. It is the 2024-25 equivalent of the new broadcasting deal allowing 2015-16 clubs to pay huge wages.

There are two potential little twists to all of this, too.

One is that the wealth may actually be spread. It is currently highly likely that the Premier League gets a fifth Champions League place, potentially allowing more history to be made. There’s then what that prize can mean. As all of Newcastle, Tottenham and Villa have found, European football in this calendar means greater inconsistency, potentially bringing this issue right around again. That reality could still affect this season, particularly in the case of Unai Emery’s team, or maybe Chelsea in the Europa Conference League.

It can be almost self-defeating, but then there’s still nothing like a win in the Champions League. Villa can testify to that now. It’s a moment to savour. It’s why, especially for a few clubs, this might be a moment to seize.