In Aaron Rodgers-Steelers protracted negotiations, who has meaningful leverage?

After the Pittsburgh Steelers expressed hope at the NFL scouting combine in February and hope at the league’s annual meetings in March and hope at the NFL Draft in April, a deal with their starting quarterback seems nearer than ever.

Aaron Rodgers is expected to visit the Steelers this weekend and play for them in 2026, per NFL Network.

The visit comes after months of uncertainty about each party’s future, and after the Steelers placed a $15.5 million tender on Rodgers last week that would give them exclusive negotiating rights with him after July 22.

But as the reunion between Rodgers and his most recent employer clarifies, who has more leverage in contract negotiations?

The short answer: It’s complicated.

“They both need each other more than they want to admit,” a high-ranking NFC executive told Yahoo Sports on Thursday. “But I do think they both probably don’t want to do this again, so it’s up to one of them to draw a line.

“I kind of view it in the same place it was last year.”

Aaron Rodgers will reportedly be in Pittsburgh this weekend. He remains a free agent. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

(Perry Knotts via Getty Images)

A year ago, Rodgers was looking for a suitor after new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn confirmed New York was not interested in his return. The Steelers’ tradition, and the chance to team up with 18-year head coach Mike Tomlin, appealed to Rodgers.

He led the Steelers to a 10-6 record as he played 16 of 17 regular-season games, missing just one game due to a fractured left wrist.

Rodgers completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Steelers won the AFC North but then fizzled in a home wild-card game against the Houston Texans, during which Rodgers completed just 51.5% of his passes for 146 yards, no touchdowns and a pick.

As Rodgers looks to play his 22nd NFL season at 42 and 43 years old, where does he hold leverage in his negotiation and where do the Steelers? Let’s break it down.

Rodgers’ high ground stems from Rooney

Four months ago, the Steelers had options. Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco and Malik Willis may not have been their top choices but all were available. So, too, were Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa for the veteran minimum $1.3 million, a route the Steelers went with Russell Wilson two years ago. Now? As free agency and the draft have passed, each of those quarterbacks have found homes. The Steelers, meanwhile, have a quarterback room headed by Mason Rudolph, who has spotted well in relief play for Pittsburgh during his career but has never earned the franchise’s trust for the head job. Rudolph has an 8-5-1 record across five seasons playing for the Steelers, but he’s also thrown 21 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, a very different résumé than Rodgers’ 527 touchdowns to 123 interceptions during his four-time MVP career.

Rudolph’s lone start in place of Rodgers last year came against the Chicago Bears: He completed 24 of 31 attempts for 171 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 31-28 loss.

Rounding out the depth chart are 2025 sixth-round draft pick Will Howard and 2026 third-round pick Drew Allar, neither of whom have ever taken an NFL snap.

There’s reason to argue that the Steelers have reached a convenient time to rebuild. But team owner Art Rooney II made clear with his words after Tomlin’s resignation, and his actions in hiring Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy, that he’s interested prioritizing trying to maximize the end of a window for an aging roster that includes 37-year-old defensive tackle Cam Heyward and 31-year-old outside linebacker T.J. Watt.

Rodgers may not be enough, his age seeming to show in the 30-6 playoff loss to Houston. But he was enough at 41 and 42 years old to lead Pittsburgh to the playoffs, and he should have more offensive help this year after the Steelers traded for veteran receiver Michael Pittman Jr., signed running back Rico Dowdle and drafted second-round receiver Germie Bernard.

Rodgers is the Steelers’ best, and probably only, chance to make a deep playoff run in McCarthy’s first year.

“They need him more than he needs them,” a second NFC executive said. “But I would say if he truly wants to play and win, the leverage is neutral. He can go to Arizona but they don’t have the same chance to win. If it’s purely money, then he would have a bit more leverage.”

The Steelers’ high ground has solidified the last 2 months

In March, the day after Murray announced the Cardinals were moving on from him, Rodgers made his lone offseason appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show.” He noted the Steelers had not offered him a contract. And there was reason to wonder whether the appearance’s timing was coincidental after Rodgers had flirted with the Vikings a year prior.

Minnesota still signed Murray, closing any sensible door for Rodgers to play there. The two teams that have drawn Rodgers speculation more recently are the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos. But neither actually makes sense.

Arizona’s talent produced a 3-14 season in 2025, the franchise’s third time in four years with fewer than five wins. Sure, offseason moves including the selection of running back Jeremiyah Love third overall should help. But the Cardinals are not primed to compete for the postseason — or even for an NFC West title. Their division is stacked with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, their conference championship foe in the Los Angeles Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers, who won a playoff game themselves to start 2026.

Yes, Rodgers’ longtime friend and coach Nathaniel Hackett is coordinating the Cardinals’ offense. And yes, the Cardinals hired as head coach Mike LaFleur, brother of Rodgers’ Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Still, Rodgers has the chance to contend in the playoffs with Pittsburgh. He does not have that chance with Arizona.

Denver speculation became popular after Bo Nix’s second ankle surgery, and the Broncos do have a roster that can contend. But Denver is also high on second-string quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Nix is expected to be healthy enough to play the 2026 season, and if he missed some time in training camp or early in the year, Stidham rather than Rodgers has familiarity with the offense and new coordinator Davis Webb.

The game of musical chairs has ended. Assuming Rodgers does not want to retire, which his visit to Pittsburgh seems to suggest, the Steelers are the only sensible chair left.

So who has the edge?

Perhaps Rodgers has personal reasons for delaying his signing, as he said was the case last year when he got married and did not sign with the team until mandatory veteran minicamp in June. But if this is simply a football question, and Rodgers wants to play but also wants the respect he believes he’s earned, this hearkens to what the Ravens showcased last year: Head coach John Harbaugh, with a Super Bowl to his name and longevity in Baltimore, believed in one way. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson had opinions on some fronts that veered another. Each had enough success, and history of working with each other, to dig in. By year’s end, they were no longer coworkers.

Do Rodgers, McCarthy, Steelers general manager Omar Khan and Rooney really want to each be left hanging? A visit this weekend should aim to create peace rather than justice.

That could come in the form of financial compromise, a high-ranking executive believing Geno Smith’s $18.5 million contract was a fair parallel for Rodgers (the Jets are paying only $3.3 million per the terms of their trade with the Las Vegas Raiders). Rodgers earned $14.12 million last season, per overthecap.com. The tender is valued at $15.5 million. A second executive did not think the tender would influence the Steelers’ nor Rodgers’ beliefs on a fair range for compromise.

Or it could come in the form of schematic concessions to Rodgers, who has sought freedom at the line of scrimmage for years.

So long as Rodgers wants to play, neither side holds significant leverage, the two executives said. If they realize that, perhaps a deal will follow.

“It’s a standoff where they are both right,” the high-ranking executive said. “He has no other options, so why not just accept what he made last year? They have no other starting options realistically right now so he has some leverage.

“The real question is: What makes them both feel good and is there a path forward?”

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