Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
Data from Pro-Football Reference, Fantasy Points and PFF was used in the research for this article
Advertisement
TE Juwan Johnson, Saints
Sometimes it’s about following the money. The Saints signed Johnson to a three-year, $30.75 extension in March, and they followed that up with a meaty role in the opener. Johnson’s box-score numbers earn immediate attention — his eight catches and 11 targets were tops at the position in Week 1. But the usage also makes him a screaming buy — Johnson played 74-of-75 possible snaps and ran a route on 79.6% of pass plays (he also saw a 61.5% slot rate). The Saints seem intent on using Johnson as one of their three key downfield guys, and he can push for TE1 relevance despite a pedestrian quarterback room.
WR Zay Flowers, Ravens
A 7-143-1 opener on nine targets speaks for itself, and it wasn’t surprising to see Flowers go off against an injury-riddled Buffalo secondary. But what’s especially encouraging is how much the Ravens prioritized Flowers. He had a first-read target rate of 53.3%, second to Jaxon Smith-Nijgba last week. Sometimes we think of the Baltimore usage tree as being somewhat crowded, but Flowers has the talent to separate himself.
Advertisement
WR Drake London, Falcons
It’s a shame he couldn’t come down with a catchable pass in the end zone at the end of the Tampa Bay loss, a play you’d expect him to make. And now we have to sweat London on the injury report, as he’s dealing with a shoulder issue. But we can’t ignore that Michael Penix Jr. looks to London as his main guy. In the four Penix starts dating back to last year, London has a whopping 54 targets, and a juicy 30-407-2 line. London only needs good health to easily return a profit off his second-round ADP. If he plays a full season, he could easily lead the NFL in targets.
RB Dylan Sampson, Browns
I get why there’s excitement for Cleveland rookie Quinshon Judkins, who signed last week and could debut this month. But Sampson’s résumé deserves a second look, too. He wasn’t just a star at Tennessee, he was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year last season. And while most of Sampson’s production last year came on the ground, it’s a great signal that he caught eight passes in his first NFL game, a consistent option for Joe Flacco (Sampson graded out as the fourth-best RB of the week, per PFF metrics). Sampson is already in the circle of trust here, and I suspect he’ll hold fantasy value even after Judkins gets in uniform.
Advertisement
TE Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
Fannin was another rookie Kevin Stefanski deployed right away. The 7-63-0 line was impressive, and he also picked up a carry from the backfield. The Browns used multiple tight ends in their base offense, with David Njoku seeing 84% of snaps and Fannin close behind at 72%. I won’t be surprised if the versatile Fannin outkicks Njoku over the balance of the season. Let’s bet on the player who’s eight years younger.
RB Javonte Williams, Cowboys
Williams had a fortuitous opener, with Jayden Blue being scratched and Philadelphia’s best run-stuffer getting ejected before the game started. No one expected Williams to collect 17 touches or score twice, so maybe this stuff isn’t sticky. That said, Williams did run a route on 71.4% of the Dallas dropbacks, third among running backs last week (Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey were ahead of him). Sometimes it doesn’t really matter what we think of a player, it’s more about how much his real-life team likes him. Williams still has a modest ceiling, but perhaps his floor is sturdier than initially realized.
Advertisement
TE Sam LaPorta, Lions
The Lions didn’t do much right in the ugly loss at Green Bay, and they might want to blow up the entire game plan. New OC John Morton is on the hot seat, having replaced respected guru Ben Johnson. But passes to LaPorta were the best part of Detroit’s offense last week (6-79-0, nine targets), and it’s interesting that LaPorta saw a slot rate of 57.9%, more than double the 25.8% rate he held last year. LaPorta was a surprising immediate star as a rookie and then a mild disappointment as a sophomore. Perhaps he was a value all summer, hiding in plain sight.
Read the full article here
