Ninety-nine percent.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system, that is the Dodgers’ likelihood of making the playoffs this year. A whopping 99.4%, to be exact, before a single pitch has even been thrown.
It’s just the latest example of the unrelenting expectations facing the Dodgers in this new season. After bolstering their World Series-winning roster with a hefty winter spending spree, anything short of the playoffs is unthinkable. And as they try to become MLB’s first repeat champion in a quarter-century, anything other than a title defense would feel like a failure.
“The expectation for our group every year is to the win the World Series,” general manager Brandon Gomes said last week. “That’s no different this year.”
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What is different, however, is the level of talent and depth the Dodgers have amassed at seemingly each position group, from a star-studded starting rotation to a versatile and veteran lineup of hitters.
As a result, there aren’t many concerns confronting the team as it opens spring training at Camelback Ranch in Arizona on Tuesday. But, with the team just four weeks away from its season-opening trip to Japan, here are four questions to monitor in camp ahead of the 2025 season.
1. How will Shohei Ohtani look after surgery?
Really, Shohei Ohtani is returning from two surgeries this spring. As a hitter, he spent much of the winter recovering from shoulder surgery on the torn labrum he suffered in the World Series. As a pitcher, he is still completing the final steps of his comeback from a 2023 Tommy John revision.
Because of that, intrigue will follow every one of Ohtani’s bullpen and live BP sessions. As he tries to return to two-way mastery this season, spring training should give an early sign of whether he’s physically capable of doing it.
The Dodgers’ concern about Ohtani as a hitter has been low, with team officials noting that his shoulder surgery was to his trailing left arm — which should affect his swing less than if it were his lead right arm. Ohtani is expected to be ready to hit by opening day.
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The real question could be how he looks on the mound in his return from the second major elbow surgery of his career, and how long it takes him to make his debut as a pitcher in the regular season. Manager Dave Roberts set a tentative target of May for Ohtani’s pitching return, though left open the possibility it could be sooner. Ohtani himself said his timeline will depend on how he feels once he starts throwing bullpen sessions in camp.
2. Can Mookie Betts improve at shortstop?
When it comes to the Dodgers’ lineup, there’s really only one uncertainty.
The Mookie Betts-return-to-shortstop experiment is underway. And after inconsistent defense and a hand injury derailed his progress at the position last year, much could depend on Betts’ ability to improve as a shortstop this season.
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If Betts can stick at shortstop, it would free Tommy Edman to play more center field. It would allow Korean signee Hyeseong Kim to get more time at his primary position of second base. And, it would cement Betts’ status as one of the game’s all-time great defenders, accomplishing an almost unprecedented midcareer position switch from right field.
But first, the 32-year-old will have to showcase better fundamentals — especially with his throws, which accounted for eight of his nine errors last year — during spring camp and the early part of the season.
3. Who will pitch opening day?
This is the definition of a champagne problem.
Between Ohtani, new signings Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, and returning frontline arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers could have five ace-caliber pitchers in 2025.
Figuring out exactly how they line up in a starting rotation, however, is a task with seemingly endless solutions.
Snell had the best season of the group in 2024, posting a 3.12 ERA over 20 total starts and a dazzling 1.23 ERA over his final 14 outings (including his first career no-hitter in August). Yamamoto and Glasnow both had sub-3.50 ERAs, albeit while missing significant portions of the year with injury. And though Sasaki will be a 23-year-old rookie coming over from Japan, he could possess as much raw talent as anyone else on the pitching staff, with an upper-90s mph fastball and wipeout splitter.
4. Who will be the closer?
Not since the roller-coaster Craig Kimbrel experience of 2022 have the Dodgers had a designated closer in the bullpen.
But, after spending $72 million on top free-agent reliever Tanner Scott last month, it’s possible that could change this year.
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The Dodgers have not officially called Scott their closer yet, with Gomes saying at Scott’s introductory news conference that the team could still use a matchup-based, closer-by-committee approach. But, even then, Gomes said Scott would likely get “a lot of save opportunities.” And on Sunday, Roberts doubled down by telling MLB Network Radio that Scott would get the “brunt” of save opportunities to start the season. Scott, an All-Star left-hander, racked up 22 saves with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres last year.
The Dodgers do have other options, from Evan Phillips (the closest thing to a full-time closer the Dodgers have had in recent years) to Michael Kopech (who led the team in saves last year after arriving at the trade deadline) to Kirby Yates (another offseason signing coming off a 33-save campaign with the Texas Rangers). But for now, Scott appears to be at the top of their pecking order, with the chance to potentially strengthen his grip on a ninth-inning role this spring.
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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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