On Saturday, Fred Katz and John Hollinger of The Athletic broke the news that the NBA recently increased its projections for the 2027-28 salary cap by $2 million. Initial projections had the cap landing at $174 million, but the latest projections are a $176 million salary cap and a $213 million luxury-tax line.
Katz and Hollinger explained why that could provide some much-needed financial relief to teams around the league:
“The latest national TV contract was supposed to usher in an era of 10 percent annual salary-cap increases, more than enough to cover the 8 percent raises in contracts given to most star players. Instead, the local TV market crashed so hard that the annual raise was barely half that a year ago (5.2 percent) and was forecast to be similar in 2027-28 (5.5 percent). The projected raise for 2027-28 is now 6.7 percent — still a far cry from the maximal 10 percent, but closer to the raises in player contracts.”
That’s particularly welcome news for the Lakers given their free-agent spending spree this past offseason.
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Since Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Sexton all changed teams this summer, they were limited to 5% annual raises in their contracts rather than 8%. That means the projected cap growth in 2027-28 is now expected to (slightly) outpace their annual raises.
While Grimes and Kessler each have standard 5% annual raises in their contracts, Mamu’s deal was uniquely structured. He’s earning $13 million this year, goes down to $12.35 million in 2027-28, goes back up to $13.0 million in 2028-29 and has a $13.65 million player option in 2029-30.
Austin Reaves also did the Lakers a solid by taking $5 million less than what was initially reported. He could have received full 8% annual raises every year, but instead, he took only a roughly 4% raise in 2027-28, which also slightly reduced the amount he could receive in the final two years of his contract.
That all begs the question of what the Lakers might have up their sleeves next offseason.
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In all likelihood, they’re eyeing access to the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception. They’re now projected to have an additional $2 million in financial wiggle room because of this higher cap projection.
The final piece of the puzzle?
All salary-cap exceptions increase at the same rate as the salary cap itself. So, if the cap goes up by roughly 6.7%, the non-taxpayer MLE will go up by that same amount. Based on the new $176 million projection for the 2027-28 salary cap, the non-taxpayer MLE would be roughly $16.05 million next year, which is a slight increase over the previous $15.869 million projection. The taxpayer MLE would be nearly $6.5 million instead of $6.4 million.
Any team that uses the non-taxpayer MLE gets hard-capped at the first apron, which would also rise by roughly $2 million based on the latest projections. It should now land in the neighborhood of $222 million, while the second apron should be around $236 million.
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Between Reaves, Kessler, Grimes, Mamu, Luka Dončić and Cameron Carr, the Lakers already have $158.5 million in guaranteed salary on their books for 2027-28. It feels relatively safe to assume that Jarred Vanderbilt will be picking up his $13.3 million player option, while Sexton could go either way on his $9.8 million player option.
If Vanderbilt and Sexton both pick up their player options, the Lakers would be up to $181.6 million in salary. They also have team options on Jaden Hardy ($6.0 million), Dalton Knecht ($6.45 million), Bronny James ($2.5 million) and Adou Thiero ($2.5 million). The Lakers must decide on Knecht’s option by Oct. 31, but they have until June 29, 2027, to decide on the other three.
If the Lakers picked up all of those options, they’d be up to $199.1 million in salary with 12 players under contract. That would leave them roughly $22.9 million under the first apron, which would give them enough room to spend the full $16.05 million non-taxpayer MLE and round out their roster with a pair of minimum contracts.
The Lakers owe their 2027 first-round pick to Memphis if it falls outside of the top four and owe their 2027 second-round pick to either Memphis or Brooklyn, so they likely won’t have to budget for 2027-28 with those picks in mind.
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Either way, the Lakers have enough financial flexibility on the fringes of their roster — at least for now — to give themselves a real shot at having access to the full non-taxpayer MLE next summer. They could look to spend it all on one player, or they could divide it between two or more players, much like the Philadelphia 76ers did with Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons this past offseason.
The Lakers have almost a full calendar year to plan ahead for that. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if they’re wary about taking on additional long-term salary this year, particularly if it cuts into their ability to maintain access to the non-taxpayer MLE next summer.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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